gwern comments on Open Thread, May 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 01 May 2012 04:14AM

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Comment author: gwern 25 June 2012 10:05:15PM 5 points [-]

It's interesting how one can read the excerpt in two different ways:

  1. "wow, IQ isn't all it's cracked up to be, look at how none of the sample won Nobels but two rejected did"
  2. "wow, in this tiny sample of a few hundred kids, they used a test which was so accurate in predicting future accomplishment that if the sample had been just a little bit bigger, it would have picked up two future Nobels - people whose level of accomplishment are literally one in millions, and it does this by only posing some boring puzzles without once looking at SES, personality, location, parents, interests, etc!"