Incorrect comments on Open Thread, July 16-31, 2012 - Less Wrong
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Comments (141)
I don't understand why "Yes" is the right answer. It seems to me that an agent that self-modified to answer "Yes" to this sort of question in the future but said "No" this time would generate more utility than an agent that already implemented the policy of saying yes.
If I was going to insert an agent into the universe at the moment the question was posed after the coin flip had occurred, I would place one that answered "No" this time, but answered "Yes" in the future. (Assuming I have no information other than the information provided in the problem description.)
When you get to the future, would you regret having to answer "Yes", given that if you weren't so rational you could just answer "No"? If so, you should answer "No" every time. What is the difference between this time and the future? From your present position, you see all future possibilities, and so you make tradeoffs between them, acting on expected utility. But at present, you could similarly take notice of the alternative possibilities that are "sideways" from where you are, things that could happen to you but didn't, and similarly act on expected utility. There doesn't seem to be any fundamental reason for discarding (ceasing to care about) possibilities on the basis of not happening to be located within them, it's just practical to do so since you normally can't do anything about them.
(See Counterfactual Mugging and UDT for more discussion.)
This strategy is not reflectively consistent. From the new TDT PDF:
If an agent implemented your strategy, they would change decision strategies every time they come across a predictor that flipped heads.