= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Swimmer963 comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (July 2012) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (843)
I would say I'm about 75% confident that (.65C3 -.35C1) < (.65C4-.35C2)... But one of the reasons I don't even want to play that game is that I feel I am completely unqualified to estimate probabilities about that, and most other things. I would have no idea how to go about estimating the probability of, for example, the Singularity occurring before 2050...much less how to compensate for biases in my estimate.
I think I also have somewhat of an ick reaction towards the concept of "tricking" people to get what you want, even if in a very subtle form. I just...like...being honest, and it's hard for me to tell if my arguments about honesty being better are rationalizations because I don't want being dishonest to be justifiable.
The way to bridge that gap is to only volunteer predictions when you're quite confident, and otherwise stay quiet, change the subject, or murmur a polite assent. You're absolutely right that explicitly declaring a 65% confidence estimate will make you look indecisive -- but people aren't likely to notice that you make predictions less often than other people -- they'll be too focused on how when you do make predictions, you have an uncanny tendency to be correct...and also that you're pleasantly modest and demure, too.
(nods) That makes sense.