Kaj_Sotala comments on Open Thread, January 16-31, 2013 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 15 January 2013 03:50PM

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Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 20 January 2013 01:48:18PM 1 point [-]

A quick search on Google Scholar returns this article as one of the top hits.

Numerous authors (e.g., Popper, 1959) argue that scientists should try to fulzih) rather than confirm theories. However, recent empirical work (Wason and Johnson- Laird, 1972) suggests the existence of a confirmation bias, at least on abstract problems. Using a more realistic, computer controlled environment modeled after a real research setting, subjects in this study first formulated hypotheses about the laws governing events occurring in the environment.

The citation is to

WASON, P.C. and JOHNSON-LAIRD. P.N . (1972). Psychology of Reasoning: Structure and Content. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Comment author: Archelon 21 January 2013 11:47:47PM *  1 point [-]

Google doesn't find "confirmation bias" in that book. (It does find "confirmation" and "bias"---the latter appearing at least twice in the phrase "bias towards verification". The "verification" terminology suggests Popper's verification|falsification dichotomy, which at least according to Johnson-Laird was the inspiration for Wason's 2-4-6 task.)

(Also, how did you get an OCR error in your quote there?)

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 22 January 2013 08:36:56AM 1 point [-]

(Also, how did you get an OCR error in your quote there?)

Copied the quote from the PDF of the paper, which somebody had presumably run through OCR.

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