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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Probability, knowledge, and meta-probability - Less Wrong
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What does it mean for a probability assignment to be correct, as opposed to well-calibrated? Reality is or is not.
I mostly meant well calibrated, but...
There is something-like-correctness in that, given the evidence available to you, there is a correct way to update your prior. That is strictly not a fact about your posterior, but I think it's a legitimate thing to talk about in terms of 'correctness'.