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ChristianKl comments on Open Thread April 11 - April 17, 2016 - Less Wrong
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Top rated questions on the new prediction website metaculus:
Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?
Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?
Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?
Has a new boson been discovered at the LHC?
Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by late 2019?
Skills are learned through training. Metaculus is a good way to train to estimate the future.
My own Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018? just got published.
You're behind the news:
It's nice timing ;) Interestingly quite a few people on Metaculus still think that there's a chance for Theranos to succeed as a company.