Elo comments on Open Thread May 23 - May 29, 2016 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Gunnar_Zarncke 22 May 2016 09:11PM

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Comment author: Elo 24 May 2016 11:16:54PM -1 points [-]

If I am reading this correctly:

I saw some footprints; I know that there are 1/3 humans around and 2/3 cats around. there is a 3/4 likelyhood that humans made the human shaped footprint; there is a 1/4 chance that cats in boots made the human shaped footprints. Therefore my belief is that humans are more likely to have made the footprints than cats.

(I think it needs a little work, but it's an excellent diagram so far)

A suggestion: modify the number of creatures on the left to equal a count of the frequency of the priors? And the number on the right to account for frequency of belief.

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 25 May 2016 01:13:02AM 0 points [-]

Yup.

A suggestion: modify the number of creatures on the left to equal a count of the frequency of the priors? And the number on the right to account for frequency of belief.

I don't buy "frequency of belief". Maybe instead, I'd put those in thought bubbles, and change scaling of the bubbles.

Comment author: Elo 25 May 2016 07:24:08AM *  -1 points [-]

C̶a̶n̶ ̶y̶o̶u̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶a̶d̶d̶ ̶a̶ ̶w̶a̶t̶e̶r̶m̶a̶r̶k̶ ̶s̶o̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶y̶o̶u̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶c̶r̶e̶d̶i̶t̶s̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶I̶ ̶r̶e̶p̶o̶s̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶i̶m̶a̶g̶e̶?̶ Edit: woops there is a watermark, I just didn't see it.

I was thinking more specficially, "I live with 1 humans and 2 cats. therefore my priors of who could have made these footprints are represented by one human and two cats". not exactly frequency of belief but a "belief of frequency"?

Edit: also can it be a square not a rectangle? Is there a reason it was a rectangle to begin with? Something about strength of evidence maybe?

One last edit: Can you make the "cat in boots" less likely? How many cats in boots do other people have in normal priors??

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 26 May 2016 01:47:10AM *  3 points [-]

Can you make the "cat in boots" less likely?

It's not supposed to be realistic - real frequency of cats in boots is way too low for that. But I adjusted it a little for you: https://i.imgsafe.org/5876a8e.png

Edit: and about the shape, it matters not, as long as you think in odds ratios.

Comment author: Elo 26 May 2016 03:17:04AM *  -1 points [-]

I like this version much better. Yes the shape does not matter; it does help me think about it though. I think this is generally an excellent visual representation. Well done!