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pnrjulius comments on Initiation Ceremony - Less Wrong
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Maybe this is a dumb question, but where did 1/6 come from? I mean, when they asked the question I did the math and came up with 2/11, and I don't even see how you might get 1/6.
The point is that they are giving a wrong answer to confuse you, to see if you really believe in Bayes's Theorem or if instead you will just capitulate to the word of an authority.