I've only watched some prediction market news from the outside, so forgive my basic question, but are prediction markets supposed to bring in money besides having new entrants bring in cash?
I've often seen prediction markets compared to stock markets, but the stock market is generally positive-sum because you're investing money in profitable businesses that pay dividends. In contrast, if a prediction market begins with 1000 people with $1000 each (and no one else joins or brings in more money), can it ever have more than $1,000,000 in the market?
If the answer is "no, it doesn't generate money", isn't that a big problem for prediction markets as a long-term concept? It means everyone will be fighting over a limited pie, and there will be no reason for the average person to join the prediction market (they just stand to lose their money to the experts). Is this a problem holding back prediction markets now, and are there ideas to fix it?
Why does it have to be "safe enough"? If all market participants agree to bet using the same asset, it can bear any degree of risk.
I think I should have said that a good prediction market allows users to choose what asset will a particular "pair" use. It will cause a liquidity split which is also a problem, but it's also manageable and, in my opinion, it would be much closer to an imaginary perfect solution than "bet only USD".
I am not sure I understand your second sentence, but my guess is that this problem will also go away if each market "pair" uses a single (but customizable) asset. If I got it wrong, could you please clarify?