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ChristianKl comments on Open Thread May 23 - May 29, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: Gunnar_Zarncke 22 May 2016 09:11PM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 24 May 2016 11:57:02AM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure that X% better has a unit that's always the same.

But Tetlock implies that he doesn't have access to the comparison with the classified group

I don't think that's the case. It's rather that it's classified information that he can't reveal directly because it's classified.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 24 May 2016 03:22:49PM 1 point [-]

That's what I thought when I saw the passage quoted from the book (p95), but then I got the book and looked at the endnote (p301) and Tetlock says:

I am willing to make a big reputational bet that the superforecasters beat the intelligence analysts in each year in which such comparisons were possible.

which must be illegal if he has seen the comparisons.

Comment author: ChristianKl 24 May 2016 03:50:33PM 1 point [-]

He likely worked with a censor about how and what he can write. I think that line can be very well explained as the result of a compromise with the censor.

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