I observe that https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BqwXYFtpetFxqkxip/mikhail-samin-s-shortform?commentId=dtmeRXPYkqfDGpaBj isn't frontpage-y but remains on the homepage even after many mods have seen it. This suggests that the mods were just patching the hack. (But I don't know what other shortforms they've hidden, besides the political ones, if any.)

fwiw I agree with most but not all details, and I agree that Anthropic's commitments and policy advocacy have a bad track record, but I think that Anthropic capabilities is nevertheless net positive, because Anthropic has way more capacity and propensity to do safety stuff than other frontier AI companies.

I wonder what you believe about Anthropic's likelihood of noticing risks from misalignment relative to other companies, or of someday spending >25% of internal compute on (automated) safety work.

I think "Overton window" is a pretty load-bearing concept for many LW users and AI people — it's their main model of policy change. Unfortunately there's lots of other models of policy change. I don't think "Overton window" is particularly helpful or likely-to-cause-you-to-notice-relevant-stuff-and-make-accurate-predictions. (And separately people around here sometimes incorrectly use "expand the Overton window" to just mean with "advance AI safety ideas in government.") I don't have time to write this up; maybe someone else should (or maybe there already exists a good intro to the study of why some policies happen and persist while others don't^[1]).

Some terms: policy windows (and "multiple streams"), punctuated equilibrium, policy entrepreneurs, path dependence and feedback (yes this is a real concept in political science, e.g. policies that cause interest groups to depend on them are less likely to be reversed), gradual institutional change, framing/narrative/agenda-setting.

Related point: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SrNDFF28xKakMukvz/tlevin-s-quick-takes?commentId=aGSpWHBKWAaFzubba.

1. ^{^}

   I liked the book Policy Paradox in college. (Example claim: perceived policy problems are strategically constructed through political processes; how issues are framed—e.g. individual vs collective responsibility—determines which solutions seem appropriate.) I asked Claude for suggestions on a shorter intro and I didn't find the suggestions helpful.

   I guess I think if you work on government stuff and you [don't have poli sci background / aren't familiar with concepts like "multiple streams"] you should read Policy Paradox (although the book isn't about that particular concept).

I guess I'll write non-frontpage-y quick takes as posts instead then :(

I'd like to be able to see such quick takes on the homepage, like how I can see personal blogposts on the homepage (even though logged-out users can't).

Are you hiding them from everyone? Can I opt into seeing them?

I failed to find a way to import to Slack without doing it one by one.

Bores knows, at least for people who donate via certain links. For example, the link in this post is https://secure.actblue.com/donate/boresai?refcode=lw rather than https://secure.actblue.com/donate/boresweb.

I'm annoyed that Tegmark and others don't seem to understand my position: you should try for great global coordination but also invest in safety in more rushed worlds, and a relatively responsible developer shouldn't unilaterally stop.

(I'm also annoyed by this post's framing for reasons similar to Ray.)

Part is thinking about donation opportunities, like Bores. Hopefully I'll have more to say publicly at some point!

Recently I've been spending much less than half of my time on projects like AI Lab Watch. Instead I've been thinking about projects in the "strategy/meta" and "politics" domains. I'm not sure what I'll work on in the future but sometimes people incorrectly assume I'm on top of lab-watching stuff; I want people to know I'm not owning the lab-watching ball. I think lab-watching work is better than AI-governance-think-tank work for the right people on current margins and at least one more person should do it full-time; DM me if you're interested.