Slowly, a nation partially reopens. Is it too much, too soon? It’s too early to know for sure, because of lags, but so far we’ve only seen extraordinary good news. If you don’t think what we saw this past week was good news, either we disagree about how to read the data quite a lot, or you had what I consider highly realistic expectations.
Remarkably little has happened in the last week. There are weeks when decades happen, and previous weeks have felt like that. This one didn’t. This felt like waiting for things to happen and nothing happening except good numbers. Yes, we got some other news, but did any of it matter or surprise much? I would say that it did not.
Last time I did a bunch of analysis and a bit of editorializing alongside the numbers. This time I’ll keep it brief. This is mostly to get the charts out. I’ll get the other stuff out there in distinct posts if it’s worth saying.
The Data
Deaths:
WEST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
NE ex-NY
NY
Mar 19-Mar 25
116
67
111
84
203
Mar 26-Apr 1
347
477
502
454
1340
Apr 2-8
639
1335
1150
1783
3939
Apr 9-15
895
2106
1472
3261
5345
Apr 16-22
1008
2369
1730
5183
3994
Apr 23-29
1135
2500
1684
4285
2810
Apr 30-May 6
991
2413
1737
5349
2007
May 7-May 13
1044
2344
1679
4014
~1500*
*- New York includes ~700 reclassified deaths that did not take place this past week, but were instead from past weeks and added to the death count on 5/7. I’ve subtracted them out for purposes of this chart.
Positive Tests:
WEST
MIDWEST
SOUTH
NE ex-NY
NY
Mar 19-Mar 25
5744
6293
7933
8354
28429
Mar 26-Apr 1
15684
20337
24224
34391
52901
Apr 2-8
19455
31148
39618
56772
65604
Apr 9-15
16291
29267
35570
61921
64463
Apr 16-22
20065
34130
33932
64669
43437
Apr 23-29
21873
42343
33773
62189
42475
Apr 30-May 6
23424
49205
37880
51693
24287
May 7-May 13
22615
43264
37591
40209
16683
Overall test counts:
USA tests
Positive %
NY tests
Positive %
Mar 19-Mar 25
347577
16.2%
88882
32.0%
Mar 26-Apr 1
728474
20.2%
117401
45.1%
Apr 2-8
1,067,220
19.8%
144273
45.5%
Apr 9-15
1,039,790
20.1%
160859
40.1%
Apr 16-22
1,253,535
15.7%
143970
30.2%
Apr 23-29
1,480,101
13.7%
202499
21.0%
Apr 30-May 6
1,733,601
10.6%
183446
13.2%
May 7-May 13
2,215,060
7.4%
202980
8.2%
The chart tell the story. We expanded testing dramatically and positive counts dropped in every region. New York continues to improve at a much faster clip than elsewhere, and some localities are seeing things get worse, but the overall trend is unmistakable. Positive counts fell in all regions while testing once again expanded substantially.
Deaths are not falling much yet, but they are a lagging indicator. Things are improving.
I don’t feel that much more confident in my priors than I did previously, but then I haven’t felt the need to update them either, in much of any direction.
New York will start its phase 1 reopening this coming week in four of its ten regions. It will likely expand that to seven to ten of them within two weeks. Restaurants come back in phase 3, which is four weeks in. It feels like normal is well on its way. I’m starting to feel much less paranoid, as my true estimate of infections per day in the state drops to 12,478 today, down from 20,200 a week ago. And also with my increased confidence in my infection modeling.
We also get baseball around July 4, assuming the players and owners can agree on how much the players get paid. That’s tricky in the best of times, but ultimately is probably settled one way or another. All theater from here, we hope.
I’m working on some other posts that will hopefully cover other angles.
Previous weekly reports: Covid-19 5/7: Fighting Limbo, Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo
Slowly, a nation partially reopens. Is it too much, too soon? It’s too early to know for sure, because of lags, but so far we’ve only seen extraordinary good news. If you don’t think what we saw this past week was good news, either we disagree about how to read the data quite a lot, or you had what I consider highly realistic expectations.
Remarkably little has happened in the last week. There are weeks when decades happen, and previous weeks have felt like that. This one didn’t. This felt like waiting for things to happen and nothing happening except good numbers. Yes, we got some other news, but did any of it matter or surprise much? I would say that it did not.
Last time I did a bunch of analysis and a bit of editorializing alongside the numbers. This time I’ll keep it brief. This is mostly to get the charts out. I’ll get the other stuff out there in distinct posts if it’s worth saying.
The Data
Deaths:
*- New York includes ~700 reclassified deaths that did not take place this past week, but were instead from past weeks and added to the death count on 5/7. I’ve subtracted them out for purposes of this chart.
Positive Tests:
Overall test counts:
The chart tell the story. We expanded testing dramatically and positive counts dropped in every region. New York continues to improve at a much faster clip than elsewhere, and some localities are seeing things get worse, but the overall trend is unmistakable. Positive counts fell in all regions while testing once again expanded substantially.
Deaths are not falling much yet, but they are a lagging indicator. Things are improving.
I don’t feel that much more confident in my priors than I did previously, but then I haven’t felt the need to update them either, in much of any direction.
New York will start its phase 1 reopening this coming week in four of its ten regions. It will likely expand that to seven to ten of them within two weeks. Restaurants come back in phase 3, which is four weeks in. It feels like normal is well on its way. I’m starting to feel much less paranoid, as my true estimate of infections per day in the state drops to 12,478 today, down from 20,200 a week ago. And also with my increased confidence in my infection modeling.
We also get baseball around July 4, assuming the players and owners can agree on how much the players get paid. That’s tricky in the best of times, but ultimately is probably settled one way or another. All theater from here, we hope.
I’m working on some other posts that will hopefully cover other angles.