The one thing I did manage to improve my survival odds by doing was steering clear of the Tundra...even after the buff to Lichen (prior to which Tundra was mathematically impossible to survive) it seemed pretty likely that even a single non-trivial Tundra predator being submitted would inevitably wipe the whole region out. It looked like...rather a lot of people submitted distinctly non-trivial predators there.

See in context

2021 Less Wrong Darwin Game

48 2021 Darwin Game - Everywhere Else

by lsusr

6th Oct 2021

7 min read

48 Shore

The Shore is an inhospitable wasteland. Algae is available, but it's not very nitrutious. Coconuts offer an even worse calories-to-digestion ratio.

Name	Carrion	Leaves	Grass	Seeds	Detritus	Coconuts	Algae	Lichen
Shore	0	0	0	0	20	1000	1000	10

No coconut eaters got established in the Human Garbage Dump, which means no coconut eaters got established in the River or Shore instead. The only available food is algae. The Shore is basically a small bit of Ocean biome with ⅒ of the algae. The algae-eating winner of our Ocean competition has zero speed so it cannot migrate to the Shore.

To top all of it off, predators migrate in from both sea and land.

Soonbegons migrate from time to time to eat the Detritus. Otherwise, the Shore is mostly a graveyard.

Winners?

Soonbegons (kind of) by Martin Randall.

Grassland

The grassland has lots of grass and even more seeds.

Name	Carrion	Leaves	Grass	Seeds	Detritus	Coconuts	Algae	Lichen
Grassland	0	100	1000	2,000	0	0	0	50

The Grassland took 500 turns to establish an equilibrium.

Generations 1-500

Goes Extinct in Generation	Species
11	Meercat colony
14	Flock of birbs
15	Bool
16	Big Oof
17	Empowered Turtle
17	glpp511
18	cg-bird
19	Nyarlathotep
20	Human
21	Tiny Snek
21	grass_mouse
22	Sleepypotat
22	Frontier-W8
23	Armored Nutcracker
23	Toxikeet
23	lGha-S541
24	Cowlagor
27	Karthosorox
30	Piranhakeet
30	cg-fastbird
31	Wampirek
32	Yonge_Snake
34	Sheep
37	Jackrabbit
39	Grassland Tribble
39	Grassland Aphid
40	basic seed fodder
40	Galumphers
40	lGca-AS154
41	GrassSeeater
41	Small Moth
41	SpeedyLichen
41	BeaupreyButGrassland
41	Tribble
42	DefinitelyJustARock
44	Weedle
45	Bob
45	SeedyEaty
45	Locust-Seeds
47	Tribble Hunter Hunter
49	Goat
51	seed fodder
52	Seed Eater Eater Eater
53	Frontier-W2
56	Trash Panda1
56	mediocre 1-2-s
59	Common Rat
61	Omnivorous Tribble Hunter
62	Frontier-W5
63	Siolid
65	Cannibal Locust
68	Tribble Hunter Hunter Hunter Hunter
73	Ziarnojad Malutki
74	Horned Owl
78	Yonge_Omnivore
83	Medium Seedrat
86	Maverick Goose
89	Squish
187	Mooshroom
294	Killer Bunny
345	Untielopay
423	6-0-3 seed
466	Yonge_Vegan

Generations 500-2000

The grassland establishes an equilibrium. The only native species left is the Hopsplitter.

You can't see it but there's a single Venomoth on the bottom of the graph.

Winners

Species	Native Biome	Venom?	Weapons	Speed	Forage?	Temperature Adaptation?	Creator	Social Media
mediocre 1-3-s	Temperate Forest	Neither	1	3	Seeds		Corm	None
Hopsplitter	Grassland	Neither	0	10	Grass;Seeds		Nem	None
Brown Bear	Temperate Forest	Neither	3	6			elspood	None
Venomous Snark	Desert	Venom + Antivenom	1	3	Carrion	Heat (Allows survival in the Desert)	DaemonicSigil	Twitter
Venomoth	Rainforest	Venom + Antivenom	0	3	Grass		aphyer	None

Temperate Forest

The temperate forest has lots of leaves and significant seeds.

Name	Carrion	Leaves	Grass	Seeds	Detritus	Coconuts	Algae	Lichen
Temperate Forest	0	2,000	100	1000	0	0	0	50

Generations 1-200

The population crows, crashes, and then grows again.

Goes Extinct in Generation	Species
9	Grizzly Bear
12	Optimistic Omnivore
13	LeavySpeedyTanky
13	The Dark Secret of Harvest Home
14	Colonoscopies
15	TFP511
15	Gobbledygook
16	Boojum
16	Ankylosaurus
16	Monstrous Bandersnatch
17	Arboreal Assailant
17	Ultimate Lifeform
17	Bear2
18	BeauOmni2
21	FastHerbivore
22	RockMonkey
22	Gino Soupprayen
23	Hedgie
24	Basilisk
24	Meta-Lichen
25	Armored Pigeon
26	Lichen Bug
26	Fox
26	Predator
29	Forest Leaf Blight
29	Leaf Tribble
31	TreeSeeater
31	Yonge_Slug
32	Gipgip
32	You Worm!
33	Leafy Luncheoner
33	Caterpie
33	Spider
34	Forest Dragon
34	Woodland Locust
34	Forest Tribble2
40	Munchers
41	Skitter Critter
52	SpeedySeedy
57	Unicorn
57	mediocre 1-3-s
57	lF-LM732
60	Songalagala
62	Mango
69	Sky Shark
70	Locust Eater Eater
71	Brown Bear
72	Snake
78	Bullfrog
79	Pidgeotto
81	Fast Venomous Snake
82	Morpork Owl
85	Deadly Mickey K
89	lFa-G172
93	Phanpy
97	Bear1
104	Omnom
109	Ken Nishimura
110	Forest Scorpion
114	Yonge_Defense
140	Snark
152	Bastion
169	Titanosaur

Generations 200-2000

The system achieves stability stable (except for a random walk among equals).

Goes Extinct in Generation	Species
219	Gypsy Moth
272	Armored Sloth
290	Donphan
333	Armadillo1
336	Szaromysik
342	Turtling Trencherman
762	Bofa #0461-B

Winners

None of our final species have venom or antivenom.

Species	Native Biome	Venom?	Weapons	Speed	Forage?	Creator	Social Media
Cutiefly	Temperate Forest	Neither	0	0	Seeds	alkjash	None
Brown Bear	Temperate Forest	Neither	3	6		elspood	None
Forest Finch	Rainforest	Neither	0	3	Leaves	MA	None
Snark	Temperate Forest	Neither	0	10	Leaves	Vanessa	None
Forest Tribble1	Temperate Forest	Neither	0	0	Seeds	simon	None
Mutant Two-Headed Speed Snail	Human Garbage Dump	Neither	0	2	Grass	DaemonicSigil	Twitter

An honorable mention goes to the N054J's Forest Tribble2 which is identical to the Cutiefly and the Forest Tribble1.

Rainforest

The Rainforest has lots of leaves and grass but few seeds.

Name	Carrion	Leaves	Grass	Seeds	Detritus	Coconuts	Algae	Lichen
Rainforest	0	1000	2,000	100	0	0	0	50

Generations 0-1000

It takes 1000 generations to establish an introduction.

Goes Extinct in Generation	Species
11	Quartosaurus
11	Jon Rahoi
12	Stinging ant colony
14	Slug
16	Smok Wawelski Przezuwacz
18	Tree Clam
19	Slebbon
22	Rainmun
25	J's RLB
25	luden
29	Rainforest Leaf Blight
31	Tinysnek
32	Agyneta insolita
36	Crocodile
37	Giant Snake
39	Forest Ape
40	Very Lesser Forest Dragon
42	Birgus
47	Deerling
49	Elephant
60	lRa-G256
61	Murder Hornet
64	Yonge_Rainforest
66	BeauOmni2ButRainforest
79	Jungle Hare
81	Stomporz
84	Raincow
90	Grazing Snake
91	Wombat
93	basic grass fodder
95	Armadillo2
98	Rainforest Aphid
100	GrasseatyTank
111	Bofa 0461
119	Arboreal Grazer
127	Boop
128	Nine-Banded Armadillo
145	Tell Masoud
156	Rain Tribble
168	Lily the Unicorn
187	Panther
283	Forest Finch
305	mediocre 1-3-g
306	Will Die
316	lRa-GLM281
318	Fodder grass
344	Leaf Truck
537	Cheetah

Generations 1000-9000

The population oscillates from there. A small number of Snarks and Brown Bears are not visible.

Goes Extinct in Generation	Species
1485	Rony

Winners

Species	Native Biome	Venom?	Weapons	Armor	Speed	Forage?	Temperature Adaptation?	Creator
Venomoth	Rainforest	Venom + Antivenom	0	0	3	Grass		aphyer
LeavyTanky	Rainforest	Antivenom only	0	10	0	Leaves		ViktorThink
Untielopay	Grassland	Neither	2	0	10	Grass	Heat (Allows survival in the Desert)	Anonymous #5
mediocre 1-3-s	Temperate Forest	Neither	1	0	3	Seeds		Corm
Forest Finch	Rainforest	Neither	0	0	3	Leaves		MA
Snark	Temperate Forest	Neither	0	0	10	Leaves		Vanessa

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2021 Darwin Game - River

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2021 Darwin Game - Everywhere Else

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[-]elspood3y270

In the interest of science, I ran 10 more simulations with our submitted population. This is not to open a can of worms or to challenge the results in any way - we all knew we had to win on the first try!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mSqaNlo5KT9l9vmY3ckd8KSTXA0xOz0u/view

Some things that I observed:

The results were highly sensitive to randomness. Almost no species survived consistently.
Sometimes defenseless creatures survived and sometimes they didn't.
LeavyTanky (ViktorThink) survived basically every time. Looks like there was no competition for the invincible leaf eater niche in the Rainforest (though plenty of leaf eaters abounded). I would say this is the strongest creature in the field of submissions based on my tests.
Usually an apex predator survived (10 attack, 10 speed). Often it was the most successful creature in terms of total energy across all biomes that it spread to. I was usually seeing antivenom in an apex predator not being worth it, but the Cheetah had it and did well in several runs.
Venomous creatures almost never survived.
As a class, armored tanks were the majority of survivors. Occasionally a speeder would survive, but much less commonly.
Usually, some mid-range tanks survived as well (~6 armor). This was often enough to stay ahead of predators while outcompeting invincible tanks.
On average only about 15 species survived past generation 1000. 30 species NEVER survived this long together. If you combine species occupying the same niche, this number was barely more than 10.
The tundra was always barren. The desert was always taken over by a single species.
I was surprised to see the Dump omnivores survive many times (Garbage Disposal, and 2-8-0 algae-...). Creatures with more than a few food sources generally didn't do well, but the formula seemed decent in the Dump.
Sometimes the coconuts got eaten! Not often, though.
Often a 1 attack, 1 speed omnivore survived. Usually these took the place of defenseless creatures, but in one case they coexisted.

It might be fun to compete to design the creature that does the best against the 555-species field. I might also do some more experiments/analysis when I have some time - let me know if there's anything you're curious about.

Congrats to all the winners! Already looking forward to next year. Thanks lsusr for running this again this year!

[-]Measure3y40

It might be fun to compete to design the creature that does the best against the 555-species field.

Another interesting experiment would be to try to maximize the number of surviving species (starting either from the current set or from nothing).

[-]Multicore3y90

Resolutions to my pregame prediction elicitation thingies, which I unvirtuously forgot to vote in myself:

Will at least 10 species survive to equilibrium?

True. 25 species were credited as winners in at least one biome:

Armadillo v2, Desert Tortoise1, Desert Tortoise2, Rock Beetle, Sol Invictus, Super-Armor Fish, Soonbegon, Barnacle, Spanish Beard, Tilli, Seed Beetle, Mutant Two-Headed Speed Snail, Nuclear Waste, Forest Finch, Brown Bear, Trash Slime, Snark, Booyahs, Venomoth, Locust Eater Eater, Hopsplitter, mediocre 1-3-s, Venomous Snark, Cutiefly, Forest Tribble1

Soonbegon didn't "survive to equilibrium" despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn't count it.

Will at least 30 species survive to equilibrium?

False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I'm not going to do that.

Will at least one creature exist in each biome at equilibrium?

False. Tundra has no creatures at equilibrium. Shore has no permanent residents, but it definitely looks like the other biomes supply it enough for it to always have creatures.

Will a species with no armor, weapons, or speed survive to equilibrium?

True. Three defenseless seed-eating species survived.

Will a species with an energy value of 20 or greater survive to equilibrium?

True. Booyahs just barely makes it: 2 for attack, 10 for speed, 6 for carrion, 2 for heat resistance, 0.1 base rate, total of 20.1. No other surviving species is that expensive. Soonbegon also costs 20.1.

Will a species with 1 or more armor survive to equilibrium?

True. When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.

Will a species with venom survive to equilibrium?

True. Venomoth and Venomous Snark had venom and survived. (Soonbegon also had venom). At equilibrium the only venom predation is Venomoth->Locust Eater Eater, but venom also protects these species from the Brown Bear and the Booyahs.

Will a pure predator with no foraging adaptations survive to equilibrium?

True. Brown Bear is the only one, but with little predatory competition it thrived in three different biomes.

[-]elspood3y50

Here's our Brier scores for our predictions:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qhuACrtD0esgCqz8rQvYcZOC0I1y1l66/edit#gid=225287990

The defenseless creature result really surprised most of us. Well done, aphyer, you knew what was up.

[-]SarahNibs3y*50

False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I'm not going to do that.

I'm giving myself credit for a much better score than that. ;)

Edit: as per elspood's simulations, I am revoking all of my supposed credit.

[-]aphyer3y30

Not well enough to get more than one animal to survive, alas.

[-]Vanessa Kosoy3y20

Soonbegon didn't "survive to equilibrium" despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn't count it.

I think it did survive in the Benthic?

[-]lsusr3y20

[-]Multicore3y10

The graph in the benthic article only shows up to generation 1000. Soonbegon goes extinct in the river close to generation 9000.

Soonbegon shouldn't be able to compete with the more efficient detritus-eating species in the benthic anyway.

[-]lsusr3y20

When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.

I thought so too. I was surprised by how useful Armor was.

[-]alkjash3y70

I reimplemented the game in vanilla Python and managed to simulate it several hundred times with ~10k random species for a total of hundreds of thousands of generations.

Unfortunately, I didn't read Hylang documentation carefully and thought foragers could simultaneously eat one of every food available, instead of just the most nutritious one...

Only my throwaway locust clone survived under the real rules. :'(

[-]Vanessa Kosoy3y20

In the temperate forest, the Snark is listed as extinct in generation 140 but then it appears in the table of winners. Does it mean it was reintroduced from other biomes?

[-]lsusr3y20

Yeah. The extinction table lists the first generation in which a native species has population 0 in its home biome.

[-]Chris Land3y10

Hoo, my entry Rainforest, Rainforest
When you gonna run out of time, my Rony?
Hoo, you eat both grass and seeds, grass and seeds
Two meals on which you can dine, my Rony

Hope you never stop, keep it up, such a fertile find
Try to get away from a touch predatory kind
My, my, my, my, woo!

M-m-m-my poor Rony

Flying with a speed of four, speed of four
Flying all the way to Grassland, my Rony
Find another place to thrive, place to thrive
Assuming you can survive, my Rony

Hope you never stop, keep it up, reach stability
Validate ecosys-stemic suitability
My, my, my, my, woo!

M-m-m-my poor Rony

Generation count, passing by, fourteen hundred
May be just a matter of time, my Rony?
Is it d-d-destiny, d-destiny
Or it is just a game in my mind, my Rony?

M-m-m-my poor Rony

[-]aphyer3y10

Do you have the full list of submitted creatures? I'd like to poke at it myself.

[-]lsusr3y30

It's here in the GitHub repo, which I have made public again.

[-]aphyer3y10

I can't figure out where Soonbegons are coming from. It looks like they have a population in the River for some time but then go extinct. Do they exist somewhere else that I missed?

[-]lsusr3y20

They also survive in the Ocean sometimes.

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