I still have a bunch of checking to confirm whether this actually works, but I'm getting my preliminary decision down ASAP:
CWB/OOH/XXD (where the Xes are Nothing or Goblins depending on whether I'm Hard-mode-ing)
On the basis that:
Adventurers should prioritize the 'empty' trapped rooms over the ones with Orcs, then end up funelled into the traps and towards the Hag; Clay Golem and Dragon are our aces, so they're placed in the two locations Adventurers can't complete the course without touching.
On further inspection it turns out I'm completely wrong about
how traps work.
and it looks like
Dungeoneers can always tell what kinds of fight they'll be getting into: min(feature effect) between 2 and 4 is what decides how they collectively impact Score.
It also looks like
The rankings of effectiveness are different between the Entry Square, the Exit Square, and Everywhere Else; Steel Golems are far and away the best choice for guarding the entrance but 'only' on par with Dragons elsewhere.
Lastly
It looks like there's a weak but solid benefit to dungeoneers having no choice even between similarly strong creatures: a choice of two dragons and a choice of two hags are both a bit scarier than hag-or-dragon. (Though that might just be because multiple of the same strong creature is evidence you're in a well-stocked dungeon? Feature effects are hard to detangle.)
Also
It seems like there's a weirdly strong interaction between the penultimate obstacle and the ultimate obstacle?
Oh and just for Posterity's sake, marking that I noticed both
the way some Tournaments will have 3 judges and others will have 4
and
the change in distribution somewhere between Tournaments 3000 and 4000
but I have no clue how to make use of these phenomena.
On reflection, I think
my initial guess happened to be close to optimal
because
Adventurers will successfully deduce that a mid-dungeon Trap is less dangerous than a mid-dungeon Orc
and
Hag-then-Dragon seems to make best use of the weird endgame interaction I still don't understand
however
I'm scared Adventurers might choose Orcs-plus-optionality over Boulders
so my new plan is
CBW/OOH/XXD
(and I also suspect
COW/OBH/XXD
might be better because of
the tendency of Adventuring parties to pick Eastern routes over Southern ones when all else is equal
but I don't have the confidence to make that my answer.)
The dungeon is laid out as depicted; Room 3 does not border Room 4, and does border Room 6. You don't, however, know what exactly the adventurers are going to do in your dungeon, or which encounters they are going to do in which order. Perhaps you could figure that out from the dataset.
(I've edited the doc to make this clearer).
So I did some super dumb modelling.
I was like: let's assume that there aren't interaction effects between the encounters either in the difficulty along a path or in the tendency to co-occur. And let's assume position doesn't matter. Let's also assume that the adventurers choose the minimally difficult path, only moving across room edges.
To estimate the value of an encounter, let's look at how the dungeons where it occurs in one of the two unavoidable locations (1 and 9) differ on average from the overall average.
Assuming ChatGPT did all the implementation correctly, this predictor never overestimates the score by much. Though it frequently, and sometimes egregiously, underestimates the score.
Anyway, using this model and this pathing assumption, we have DBN/OWH/NOC
We skip the goblins and put our fairly rubbish trap in the middle to stop adventurers picking and choosing which parts of the outside paths they take. The optimal path for the adventurers is DONOC, which has a predicted score of 30.29, which ChatGPT tells me is ~95th percentile.
I'd love to come at this with saner modelling (especially of adventurer behaviour), but I somewhat doubt I will.
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
Estimated Complexity: 3.5/5 (this is a guess, I will update based on feedback/seeing how the scenario goes)
STORY
The Dungeon Tournament is held regularly, calling dungeon creators from around the kingdom to create the most challenging dungeon for adventurers to battle through. The winner is crowned with glory (plus they receive a large dungeon-building grant, and are often hired to design labyrinths, pyramids, mazes, tombs, and many other dungeons).
The current competitors, however, have no conception of how to employ Data Science to optimize their dungeons! After gathering data on the past dungeons and how they were scored, you entered the tournament, confident in your victory and the attendant glory and improved career prospects. You planned a terrible dungeon, forcing adventurers through a deadly gauntlet of traps and ferocious monsters.
Unfortunately, managing the various monsters you need to stock a dungeon turned out to be more difficult than you expected.
Your dragons got into a fight that smashed one of your golems, and ended with one of the dragons leaving and flying away to sulk.
Your goblins have broken half of your traps while trying to play with them.
Your hag...hasn't done anything wrong exactly, but whenever you check in on her she cackles at you in a very unsettling way while muttering ominously at you[1].
You barely have enough encounters left to fill every room in your dungeon, much less to fill them with carefully-chosen challenging encounters. The adventuring teams that will be exploring your dungeon for the competition[2] pass by the disaster area around your workshop and snigger at you. All you can do is hope that clever use of the data can let you recover and avoid your dungeon being a complete disaster.
DATA & OBJECTIVES
You need to fill your dungeon with encounters. By convention, the competition dungeons must be laid out in a 3x3 grid as follows, with adventurers entering in the top left and working their way through to the treasure in the bottom right:
For example, you could choose to submit this arrangement:
OPTIONAL HARD MODE
You cannot stand these Goblins being around. They break everything. They steal everything. They smell awful. They constantly make terrible, terrible jokes.[3] And they aren't even all that big a threat to adventurers! Is there no way you could make do without them? Or at least make do with fewer of them?
To pursue this bonus objective, use fewer Goblins in your submission. Since you only have 9 encounters available to begin with, you will need to leave a room empty for each Goblins encounter you leave out.
You'd rather put up with these Goblins for a bit longer than embarrass yourself in the Dungeon Tournament, though: only leave them out if you think you can do that with minimal effect on your performance in the Tournament!
SCHEDULING & COMMENTS
Since we're in the holiday season, I expect many players (and also myself) to be busy, and so I'm leaving substantially more time for this scenario than usual so that anyone who is e.g. out for holidays can still have time to try it. I'll aim to post the ruleset and results on January 6th.
As usual, working together is allowed, but for the sake of anyone who wants to work alone, please spoiler parts of your answers that contain information or questions about the dataset. To spoiler answers on a PC, type a '>' followed by a '!' at the start of a line to open a spoiler block - to spoiler answers on mobile, type a ':::spoiler' at the start of a line and then a ':::' at the end to spoiler the line.
"The bane of the mountains, the princess's hand. The loyal protector all at her command. Her lovely, her darling, oh now where are you? Are you gone? Are you lost? No, you're boiled in a stew!"
At this point you made a hasty retreat, because you did not like the way the Hag was eyeing you while talking about boiling you in a stew.
Four different adventuring teams have signed up as judges to run this tournament's dungeons; thankfully, Dungeon Tournament officials will be healing your monsters and resetting your traps between adventuring teams, so you won't have to worry about that.
"My uncle Gobbo has no tongue!" "How does he talk?" "...Terrible! Ahahahaha!" And you don't even want to mention the one about the Mind Goblin.