When I started seeing stories about the "knockout game" (supposedly, teenagers playing a game where they try to knockout random strangers) a few days ago, I immediately resolved to avoid paying attention to them, because it sounded like a classic case of people taking a few isolated incidents and blowing them up into a big scary trend.
And then this morning, I see this blog post, which links back to an article from two years ago titled: "Knockout King: Kids call it a game. Academics call it a bogus trend. Cops call it murder." Turns out my knowledge of human biases has served me well... and it's especially significant that the article is from two years ago; this is not the first time the media has tried to get people scared about this "trend." From the article (emphasis added):
Mike Males, a research fellow at the nonprofit Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice and who runs the website YouthFacts.org, says the media have made habit of cherry-picking isolated instances of "knockout games" in order to gin up sensational stories that demonize youth. "This knockout-game legend is a fake trend," Males contends.
Given that 4.3 million violent attacks were reported by U.S. citizens in 2009, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey, Males says reporters should know better than to highlight a handful of random attacks by kids and call it journalism. It's the same thing as plucking a few instances of attackers with Jewish surnames who beat up non-Jews and declaring it a "troubling new trend," he argues.
Still, over the years a handful of reports of "knockout" have emerged from cities in Missouri, Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey. And most criminologists and youth experts agree that unprovoked attacks by teenagers on strangers are a real, if extremely rare, phenomenon.
This means that this attack is either a strong statistical fluke, or it means violent crime is increasing since even congressmen who are (a) few and (b) presumably better protected than typical citizens are affected.
Well, Bureau of Justice statistics show that rates of simple assault have been increasing recently. I didn't need to read about the Congresswoman being assaulted to be convinced of that; I have much stronger evidence available. You were offering this incident as evidence that the "knockout game" is a thing, I thought, not just evidence that violent crime is up. After all, the latter hypothesis is entirely compatible with this just being a mugging.
Are you suggesting that a knockout game epidemic is the best explanation for the increase in simple assault?