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Sometimes we talk about unnecessarily complex potential karma/upvote systems, so I thought I would throw out an idea along those lines:
Every time you post, you're prompted to predict the upvote/downvote ratio of your post.
Instead of being scored on raw upvotes, you're scored on something more like how accurately you predicted the future upvote/downvote ratio.
So if you write a good post that you expect to be upvoted, then you predict a high upvote/downvote ratio, and if you're well calibrated to your audience, then you actually achieve the ratio you predicted, and you're rewarded "extra" by the system.
And here's the cool part. If you write a lazy low-effort post, or if you're trolling, or you write any kind of post that you expect to be poorly received, then you have two options. You can either lie about the expected upvote/downvote ratio, input a high expected ratio, and then the system penalizes you even more when you turn out to get a low u/d ratio, and considers you to be a poorly calibrated poster. Or you can be honest about the u/d ratio you expect, in which case the system can just preemptively tell you not to bother posting stuff like that, or hide it, or penalize it in some other way.
Overall you end up with a system that rewards users who (1) are well-calibrated regarding the quality of their posts and (2) refrain from posting content they know to be bad by explicitly making them admit that it's bad before they post it and also maybe hiding the content.
I get the feeling that LW has a lot of lurkers with interesting things to say, but who are too afraid to say them. They may eventually build up the courage they need to contribute to the community, but this system would scare them off. They don't yet have enough data to predict how well their posts would be received. We need to be doing the opposite and remove some of the barriers to joining in.
On the other hand, trolls don't care that much about karma. They'll just exploit sock puppets.