Supposedly intelligence is some kind of superpower.  And they're now selling intelligence for pennies/million tokens.  Logically, it seems like I should be spending way more of my income than I currently am on intelligence.  But what should I spend it on?

For context, I currently spend ~$50/month on AI:

  • ChatGPT $20/month
  • Github Copilot $10/month
  • Various AI art apps ~$20/month

Suppose I wanted to spend much more on intelligence (~$1000/month), what should I spend it on?

One idea might be: buy a pair of smart glasses, record everything I do, dump it into a database, and then have the smartest LLM I can find constantly suggest things to me based on what it sees.

Is this the best thing I could do?

Would it be anywhere worth $1000/month (assume spending this money will not impact my welfare in any way and I would otherwise dump it into an SNP500 index fund).

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gwern

6330

If you're having trouble coming up with tasks for 'artificial intelligence too cheap to meter', it could be because you are having trouble coming up with tasks for intelligence period. Just because something is highly useful doesn't mean you can immediately make use of it in your current local optimum; you may need to seriously reorganize your life and workflows before any kind of intelligence could be useful.

There is a good post on the front page right now about exactly this: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7L8ZwMJkhLXjSa7tD/the-great-data-integration-schlep (I usually call this concept "automation as colonization wave": many major technologies of undoubted enormous value, such as steam or the Internet or teleconferencing/remote-working, take a long time to have massive effects because you have everyone stuck in local optima and potentially outright sabotaging any integration of the Big New Thing, and potentially have to create entirely new organizations and painfully liquidate the old ones through decades of bleeding.)

So one thing you could try, if you are struggling to spend $1000/month usefully on artificial intelligence, is to instead experiment by committing to spend $1000/month on natural intelligence. That is, look into hiring a remote worker / assistant / secretary, an intern, or something else of that ilk. They are, by definition, a flexible multimodal general intelligence neural net capable of tool use and agency. And if you mentally ignore that $1000/month because it's an experiment, you have 'natural intelligence too cheap to meter' as a sunk cost.

(If this is still too confusing, you can try treating yourself as a remote worker and roleplay as them by sending yourself emails and trying to pretend you have amnesia as you write a reply and avoid doing anything a remote work could not do, like edit files on your computer, and charging yourself an appropriate hourly rate, terminating at $1000 cumulative.)

If you find you cannot make good use of your hired natural intelligent neural net, then that fully explains your difficulty of coming up with compelling usecases for artificially intelligent neural nets too. And if you do, you now have a clean set of things you can meaningfully try to do with AI services.

For what workflows/tasks does this 'AI delegation paradigm' actually work though, aside from research/experimentation with AI itself? Like Janus's apparent experiments with running an AI discord I'm sure cost a lot, but the object level work there is AI research. If AI agents could be trusted to generate a better signal/noise ratio by delegation than by working-alongside the AI (where the bottleneck is the human)....isn't that the singularity? They'd be self sustaining. 

Thus having 'can you delegate this to a human' be a prerequisite test of whether o... (read more)

For what workflows/tasks does this 'AI delegation paradigm' actually work though, aside from research/experimentation with AI itself? Like Janus's apparent experiments with running an AI discord I'm sure cost a lot, but the object level work there is AI research. If AI agents could be trusted to generate a better signal/noise ratio by delegation than by working-alongside the AI (where the bottleneck is the human)....isn't that the singularity? They'd be self sustaining.

I'm not following your point here. You seem to have a much more elaborate idea of outsourcing than I do. Personally cost-effective outsourcing is actually quite difficult, for all the reasons I discuss under the 'colonization wave' rubric. A Go AI is inarguably superhuman; nevertheless, no matter how incredible Go AI become, I would pay exactly $0 for it (or hours of Go consultation from Lee Sedol for that matter), because I don't care about Go or play it. If society were reorganized to make Go playing a key skill of any refined person, closer to the Heian era than right now, my dollar value would very abruptly changed. But right now? $0.

What I'm suggesting is finding things like, "email your current blog post dra... (read more)

1Casey B.
I largely don't think we're disagreeing? My point didn't depend on a distinction between 'raw' capabilities vs 'possible right now with enough arranging' capabilities, and was mostly: "I don't see what you could actually delegate right now, as opposed to operating in the normal paradigm of ai co-work the OP is already saying they do (chat, copilot, imagegen)", and then your personal example is detailing why you couldn't currently delegate a task. Sounds like agreement.  Also I didn't really consider your example of:    > "email your current blog post draft to the assistant for copyediting". to be outside the paradigm of AI co-work the OP is already doing, even if it saves them time. Scaling up this kind of work to the point of $1k would seem pretty difficult and also outside what I took to be their question, since this amounts to "just work a lot more yourself, and thus the proportion of work you currently use AI for will go up till you hit $1k". That's a lot of API credits for such normal personal use.   ...  But back to your example, I do question just how much of a leap of insight/connection would be necessary to write the standard Gwern mini article. Maybe in this exact case you know there is enough latent insight/connection in your clippings/writings, and the LLM corpus, and possibly some rudimentary wikipedia/tool use, such that your prompt providing the cherry on top connecting idea ('spontaneous biting is prey drive!') could actually produce a Gwern-approved mini-essay. You'd know the level of insight-leap for such articles better than I, but do you really think there'd be many such things within reach for very long? I'd argue an agent that could do this semi indefinitely, rather than just clearing your backlog of maybe like 20 such ideas, would be much more capable than we currently see, in terms of necessary 'raw' capability. But maybe I'm wrong and you regularly have ideas that sufficiently fit this pattern, where the bar to pass isn't "be even close
2eggsyntax
They can't typically (currently) do better on their own than working alongside a human, but a) a human can delegate a lot more tasks than they can collaborate on (and can delegate more cheaply to an AI than to another human), and b) though they're not as good on their own they're sometimes good enough. Consider call centers as a central case here. Companies are finding it a profitable tradeoff to replace human call-center workers with AI even if the AI makes more mistakes, as long as it doesn't make too many mistakes.

You can post on a subreddit and get replies from real people interested in that topic, for free, in less than a day.

Is that valuable? Sometimes it is, but...not usually. How much is the median comment on reddit or facebook or youtube worth? Nothing?

In the current economy, the "average-human-level intelligence" part of employees is only valuable when you're talking about specialists in the issue at hand, even when that issue is being a general personal assistant for an executive rather than a technical engineering problem.

Viliam

20

One possible approach could be to have the AI make something useful, and then sell it. That way, you could get a part of the $1000 back. Possibly all of it. Possibly make some extra money, which would allow you to spend even more money on AI the next month.

So we need a product that is purely digital, like a book, or a computer program. Sell the book using some online shop that will print it on demand, sell the computer game on Steam. Keep producing one book after another, and one game after another.

Many people are probably already doing this, so you need something to separate yourself from the crowd. I assume that most people using this strategy produce complete crap, so you only need to be slightly better. For example, read what the computer generated, and click "retry" if it is awful. Create a website for your book, offering a free chapter. Publish an online novel, chapter by chapter. Make a blog for your game; let the AI also generate articles describing your (fictional) creative process, the obstacles you met and the lessons you learned. Basically, the AI will do the product, but you need to do marketing.

A more complex project would be to think about an online project, and let the AI build it. But you need a good idea first. However, depending on how cheap intelligence is, the idea doesn't have to be too good; you only need enough users to pay for the costs of development and hosting, plus some profit. So basically, read random web pages, when you find people complaining about (lack of) something, built it, and send them a link.