The Open Thread posted at the beginning of the month has gotten really, really big, so I've gone ahead and made another one. Post your new discussions here!
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.
The prior for "Scientology is proposed" is higher than the simple complexity prior of the claim, to the (considerable) extent that Scientology is the sort of thing a human would make up.