If there's a causal chain from c to d to e, then d causally depends on c, and e causally depends on d, so if c were to not occur, d would not occur, and if d were to not occur, e would not occur
On Lewis's account of counterfactuals, this isn't true, i.e. causal dependence is non-transitive. Hence, he defines causation as the transitive closure of causal dependence.
Lewis' semantics
Let be a set of worlds. A proposition is characterised by the subset of worlds in which the proposition is true.
Moreover, assume each world induces an ordering over worlds, where means that world is closer to than . Informally, if the actual world is , then is a smaller deviation than . We assume , i.e. no world is closer to the actual world than the actual world.
For each , a "neighbourhood" around is a downwards-closed set of the preorder . That is, a neighbourhood around is some set such that and for all and , if then . Intuitively, if a neighbourhood around contains some world then it contains all worlds closer to than . Let denote the neighbourhoods of .
Negation
Let denote the proposition " is not true". This is defined by the complement subset .
Counterfactuals
We can define counterfactuals as follows. Given two propositions and , let denote the proposition "were to happen then would've happened". If we consider as subsets, then we define as the subset . That's a mouthful, but basically, is true at some world if
(1) " is possible" is globally false, i.e.
(2) or " is possible and is necessary" is locally true, i.e. true in some neighbourhood .
Intuitively, to check whether the proposition "were to occur then would've occurred" is true at , we must search successively larger neighbourhoods around until we find a neighbourhood containing an -world, and then check that all -worlds are -worlds in that neighbourhood. If we don't find any -worlds, then we also count that as success.
Causal dependence
Let denote the proposition " causally depends on ". This is defined as the subset
Nontransitivity of causal dependence
We can see that is not a transitive relation. Imagine with the ordering given by . Then and but not .
Informal counterexample
Imagine I'm in a casino, I have million-to-one odds of winning small and billion-to-one odds of winning big.
Thanks so much for this—it was just the answer I was looking for!
I was able to follow the logic you presented, and in particular, I understand that and but not in the example given.
So, I was correct in my original example of c->d->e that
(1) if c were to not happen, d would not happen
(2) if d were to not happen, e would not happen
BUT it was incorrect to then derive that if c were to not happen, e would not happen? Have I understood you correctly?
I'm still a bit fuzzy on the informal counterexam...
I think you want to define to be true if is true when we restrict to some neighbourhood such that is nonempty. Otherwise your later example doesn't make sense.
In reading the SEP entry on counterfactual theories of causation, I had the following question occur, and I haven't been able to satisfactorily resolve it for myself.
An event e is said to causally depend on an event c if and only if e would occur if c were to occur and e would not occur if c were not to occur.
The article makes a point of articulating that causal dependence entails causation (if e causally depends on c, c is a cause of e) but not vice versa. It then defines a causal chain as a fine sequence of events c, d, e,... where d causally depends on c, e on d, and so on, before defining c to be a cause of e if and only if there exists a causal chain leading from c to e.
What I'm having trouble with is understanding how c can cause e according to the given definition without e causally depending on c. If there's a causal chain from c to d to e, then d causally depends on c, and e causally depends on d, so if c were to not occur, d would not occur, and if d were to not occur, e would not occur. But doesn't this directly entail that if c were to not occur, then e would not occur and therefore that e causally depends on c?
So how can c cause e according to the definition without e causally depending on c??