Cleo Nardo

RL seeming to shape much of the motivations and behaviour of the agents, "washing out" their initial personas — c.f. Thoughts on the persona selection model (Sam Marks, 24th Sep 2026). This makes me pessimistic about some motivations for persona research, but not all. Here's my impression of why people...

It's going to be so embarrassing if we all die due to RL environments rewarding egregiously misaligned behavior. Like at least let us be killed by misgeneralization. — Thomas Kwa Constellation vs MIRI vs Reality Current AI agents often behave overtly egregiously misaligned. By “overt”, I mean that a human,...

This article is about: * How do we (more) safely defer to AIs? (Ryan Greenblatt, Julian Stastny) * AI 2040: Plan A, Alignment Roadmap (Ryan Greenblatt, Thomas Larsen). If you've read them, I'm impressed, they're both very long. If you haven't read them, you might be confused about: * Why...

What happens when humans put AIs in charge of civilisationally important decisions? A frontier AI company might hand over internal decisions (R&D, safety, deployment) or external decisions (government relations, public relations, philanthropy), or both. We might also see handoff by a government, by a coalition of governments, or by humanity...

Daniel Kokotajlo: To be clear, we don’t claim P will happen specifically. But when we wrote out our best-guess scenario month by month, P kept happening. Eventually we decided to just publish P. I’m at ~80% on P; my coauthors are lower. Ryan Greenblatt: I thought it would be helpful...

Summary I'm increasingly convinced that model access parity is a big deal and we are not on track to achieve it. By model access parity, I mean a small gap between (i) the model access for lab employees and (ii) the model access for external safety researchers, third-party auditors, and...

Over time, there might be an increasingly large gap between insider model access and outsider model access. By insiders, I mean employees at the frontier lab.[1] By "outsiders", I mean external safety researchers, third-party auditors, and other actors trying to make the future go well. I will call this a...