Are there any links we can read about non-appeasing de-escalation strategies?

Either theoretical ones or ones that have been tried in the past are fine.

If you choose to stand strong, I'd encourage you not to combine it with spitting in his face, poking fun of his appearance and goading him to pull out that gun you see he has holstered.

If you're sure you'll win, why not? Draw him out and knock him down, with as much force as the actions you've led him into will plainly justify to the witnesses.

I’m wondering why not just call for mutual disarmament under IAEA supervision? There’s an old, but now very relevant episode of 80000 hours with Daniel Ellsberg;

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/daniel-ellsberg-doomsday-machines/

I didn’t keep the time stamps, but he gets in to the approximate number of warheads a state should need as a deterrent, and says it's probably not more than 100.

Luisa Rodriguez has an excellent post on the EA forum with fairly current estimates of the downstream effects of a nuclear exchange between US and Russia with the 2019 arsenal. She estimates a US-Russian nuclear exchange would result in a 5.1 to 58 Tg of schmutz entering the atmosphere, best guess is 31 Tg. (A NATO-Russia exchange would likey be more since would also involve France and the UK.)

31 Tg would put us in a "nuclear autum" but would be very close to a nuclear winter, just another couple Tg from a full NATO-Russia exchange would likely put us on the winter part of the sigmoid curve. (LW isn't letting post images in the comment like it usually does, but relevant graphs are in the paper).

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#December_19__2019_Update

Taking Statista’s numbers and assuming the megatons about average out
Russia (5,977), USA (5,428), China (350), France (290), United Kingdom (225), Pakistan (165), India (160), Israel (90), North Korea (20).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264435/number-of-nuclear-warheads-worldwide/

Let’s say we capped everyone at 100, there’s less than 900 warheads in the world, we’re well under nuclear winter if the exchange is between two states. Even if the US and Russia just come down to 350 for parity with China, we’ve still substantially reduced the risk.

The ultimate recklessness I see here is that we haven’t discussed mutual nuclear disarmament in earnest as part of this war. When are we going to have a better opportunity? And if Putin is asked and he does anything other than enthusiastically agree, doesn’t that tell us everything we need to know?

Unfortunately, the Ukraine conflict has seen many instances of analogous escalation without significant military benefit, and arguably not only from one side.

Can you give at least one example?

I have read this letter with pleasure. Pacifism in wartime is an extremely difficult position.

Survival rationality, humanity is extremely important!

It seems to me that the problem is very clearly revealed through compound percent (interest).

If in a particular year the probability of a catastrophe (man-made, biological, space, etc.) overall is 2%, then the probability of human survival in the next 100 years is 0.98 ^ 100 = 0.132,

That is 13.2%, this figure depresses me.

The ideas of unity and security are the only ones that are inside the discourse of red systems. Therefore, the ideas of security may well fundamentally hold together any parties. I think the idea of ​​human survival is a priority.

Because it is clear to everyone that the preservation of humanity and rationals is extremely important, regardless of the specific picture of the world.

world peace!

If we take 1000 and 10000 years, then the result is unambiguous, survival tends to 0.

Therefore, I would like not to miss the chances that humanity can get through Artificial Intelligence or through Decentralized Blockchain Evolution, or quantum computing, or other positive black swans. We really need a qualitative breakthrough in the field of decentralized balancing of all systems.

Nevertheless, 86% of this game is almost lost by humanity

As we can see, the chances are small. Therefore, future generations of intelligent species will probably be happy if there are some convenient manuals for deciphering human knowledge.

What does the map of the arks look like? Can you imagine how happy it will be for a rational chimpanzee to hold your manual and flip through the pages of distant ancestors?

And to be amazed at how such an aggressive subspecies, thanks to aggression, intelligence developed faster and they defeated themself.

It is unlikely that they will have English. Language is a very flexible thing.

Probably the basis should be that basic development of Feynman and Carl Sagan, I'm talking about a satellite with the decoding of humanity, from "H". I think on Earth you can pick up points for such arks.

Due to the variety of risks, it seems to me that intelligent life will logically arise again under water, especially due to the fact that there are internal energy sources. Are there scientific arks for dolphins?

world peace! Respect for each other. We need great leap in another Integrity and Sustainability Ecosystem Equilibrium. A common understanding that this is the last century for mankind when it can overcome its natural aggression. Well, do not forget about the heritage of the following species.

peace to you! , I would be glad if you tell me where I'm right and where I'm wrong! Kind Regards!

We need to openly collaborate to save planet Earth.

Fun fact: the russia placed nuclear weapons in Belarus and 0 f**ks given by signers of this letter 😸

Russia escalates "nuclear threat" 2 times per week in their public TV per their neighborhood countries. How this letter encourages stopping their madness ?

I am not sure if I should condemn the sabotage of Nord Stream. Selling gas is a major source of income for Russia, and its income is used to sponsor the war. And I'm not sure if it's really an escalation, because it's effect is similar to economic sanctions.