There are two boxes. If you open a box, you get to keep the contents.
Omega is an omniscient oracle. Omega predicts what will happen if you open the first box and observe that it contains $100.
- If Omega predicts that you will open the second box, then Omega puts $0 in both boxes.
- If Omega predicts that you will not open the second box, then Omega puts $100 in both boxes.
You open the first box. It contains $100. Do you open the second box?
Answer
No. If you open the second box, that means you're being simulated by Omega. If you're being simulated by Omega, then opening the second box ends the simulation and kills you.
Extra Credit [Orthogonal Thinking]
You have not yet opened the first box. How do you generate (at least) $250 in profit? [Please use spoiler tags or equivalent obfuscation when discussing the extra credit.]
One-box only occurs in simulations, while two-box occurs in and out of simulations.If I one-box in simulations, then Omega puts $0 in the first box, and I can't one-box.If I two-box in simulations, then Omega puts $100 in the first box, so I may be in a simulation or not.One-boxing kills me, so I two-box.Either I'vemade a mistake,oryou have.Where is it?I mixed up the $100 and $0 in the original post. This is now fixed.