Imagine you live in a world with only two types of people. Introverts and extroverts. All introverts are the same. And so are all extroverts. It's a world with only two colors, and no shades in between.

 

Introverts like to be alone, in our world they want to meet a friend every 14 days. Extroverts love to be around other people. In our experiment they want to hang out with a friend every 2 days.

 

I´s and e´s also have something in common. They have short term memory loss. Everyday at midnight their brain does a full reset. So they never remember what happened yesterday.

 

Now that you know the basics of our thought experiment, take a guess: Which personality type feels more alone? Introverts or extroverts?

 

What does this question even mean? Let's say I'm an introvert. I wake up one morning and want to meet a friend. But when I call my friends, they don’t want to hang out with me.

 

That day I will go to bed feeling alone. But as I said above, the next morning will be a fresh start.
 

Here's two more ways to ask the same question. Who, on average, feels alone on more days, i’s or e’s? Whose interpersonal needs are being met less, i´s or e´s?

 

Did you take a guess? Maybe you picked e’s 🦅. Because they need more human interaction in general. Or you picked i’s 🏴‍☠️. Because they shoot themselves in the foot by being such loners?

 

Let’s take a closer look at our protagonists:

 

IntrovertNickname: i as in ay ay, captain 🏴‍☠️
Wants to meet a friend once every

14

days
Probability wants to meet a friend today

7.14%

 

 

ExtrovertNickname: e as in eagle 🦅
Wants to meet a friend once every

2

days
Probability wants to meet a friend today

50.00%

 

Are You Going To Meet a Friend Today?

To answer this question I calculated the probability of “meeting a friend today” for each friend group mix.

 

What is a “friend group mix”?

  • If you have one introverted and one extroverted friend, your friend group mix is 1/1, one i 🏴‍☠️ & one e 🦅.
  • If you have 5 extroverted friends, your friend group mix is 0/5, zero i 🏴‍☠️ & five e 🦅.  

 

Each table cell (probability of meeting a friend today) is calculated like this: probability_self * sum_probability_friends.

  • If an introvert has one introvert friend its: 7.14% * (1-(1-7.14%)^1) = 0.51%.
  • If an introvert has two extrovert friends it’s: 7.14% * (1-(1-50%)^2) = 5.36%
  • If an introvert has two extrovert and one introvert friend it’s: 7.14% * (1-((1-50%)^2 * (1-7.14%)^1)) = 5.48%

x-axis = number of extroverted friends, y-axis = number of introverted friends

x-axis = number of extroverted friends, y-axis = number of introverted friends

 

We can see that for extroverts the probability of “meeting a friend today” rises much faster than for introverts. Extroverts need less friends to have a high probability of “meeting a friend today”. But, if you are like me, your brain doesn't know how to work with percentages. So let's turn these % into days.

In X Days You Will Meet a Friend

Now I calculated how many days i’s and e’s have to wait until they meet a friend.

 

i2 - Waiting days until meeting a friend for an introvert 🏴‍☠️

(i) / (e)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

1095

28

18.67

16

14.93

14.45

14.22

14.11

14.05

14.03

14.01

1

196

26.13

18.23

15.84

14.86

14.42

14.21

14.1

14.05

14.03

14.01

2

102

24.61

17.85

15.69

14.8

14.39

14.19

14.09

14.05

14.02

14.01

3

71

23.35

17.5

15.56

14.74

14.36

14.18

14.09

14.04

14.02

14.01

4

55

22.28

17.2

15.43

14.68

14.33

14.16

14.08

14.04

14.02

14.01

5

46

21.38

16.92

15.32

14.63

14.31

14.15

14.08

14.04

14.02

14.01

6

40

20.6

16.67

15.22

14.58

14.29

14.14

14.07

14.04

14.02

14.01

7

35

19.93

16.45

15.13

14.54

14.27

14.13

14.07

14.03

14.02

14.01

8

32

19.35

16.24

15.04

14.5

14.25

14.12

14.06

14.03

14.02

14.01

9

29

18.83

16.06

14.96

14.46

14.23

14.11

14.06

14.03

14.01

14.01

10

27

18.38

15.89

14.89

14.43

14.21

14.11

14.05

14.03

14.01

14.01

11

26

17.98

15.74

14.82

14.4

14.2

14.1

14.05

14.02

14.01

14.01

12

24

17.62

15.6

14.76

14.37

14.18

14.09

14.05

14.02

14.01

14.01

13

23

17.3

15.48

14.7

14.34

14.17

14.08

14.04

14.02

14.01

14.01

14

22

17.01

15.36

14.65

14.32

14.16

14.08

14.04

14.02

14.01

14

15

21

16.76

15.25

14.6

14.29

14.15

14.07

14.04

14.02

14.01

14

16

21

16.52

15.16

14.56

14.27

14.13

14.07

14.03

14.02

14.01

14

17

20

16.31

15.07

14.51

14.25

14.13

14.06

14.03

14.02

14.01

14

18

20

16.12

14.99

14.48

14.23

14.12

14.06

14.03

14.01

14.01

14

19

19

15.95

14.91

14.44

14.22

14.11

14.05

14.03

14.01

14.01

14

20

19

15.79

14.84

14.41

14.2

14.1

14.05

14.02

14.01

14.01

14

x-axis = number of extroverted friends, y-axis = number of introverted friends

 

e2 - Waiting days until meeting a friend for an extrovert 🦅

(i) / (e)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

1095

4

2.67

2.29

2.13

2.06

2.03

2.02

2.01

2

2

1

28

3.73

2.6

2.26

2.12

2.06

2.03

2.01

2.01

2

2

2

14.52

3.52

2.55

2.24

2.11

2.06

2.03

2.01

2.01

2

2

3

10.03

3.34

2.5

2.22

2.11

2.05

2.03

2.01

2.01

2

2

4

7.8

3.18

2.46

2.2

2.1

2.05

2.02

2.01

2.01

2

2

5

6.46

3.05

2.42

2.19

2.09

2.04

2.02

2.01

2.01

2

2

6

5.57

2.94

2.38

2.17

2.08

2.04

2.02

2.01

2.01

2

2

7

4.94

2.85

2.35

2.16

2.08

2.04

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

8

4.47

2.76

2.32

2.15

2.07

2.04

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

9

4.11

2.69

2.29

2.14

2.07

2.03

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

10

3.82

2.63

2.27

2.13

2.06

2.03

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

11

3.59

2.57

2.25

2.12

2.06

2.03

2.01

2.01

2

2

2

12

3.4

2.52

2.23

2.11

2.05

2.03

2.01

2.01

2

2

2

13

3.23

2.47

2.21

2.1

2.05

2.02

2.01

2.01

2

2

2

14

3.1

2.43

2.19

2.09

2.05

2.02

2.01

2.01

2

2

2

15

2.98

2.39

2.18

2.09

2.04

2.02

2.01

2.01

2

2

2

16

2.88

2.36

2.17

2.08

2.04

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

2

17

2.79

2.33

2.15

2.07

2.04

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

2

18

2.72

2.3

2.14

2.07

2.03

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

2

19

2.65

2.28

2.13

2.06

2.03

2.02

2.01

2

2

2

2

20

2.59

2.26

2.12

2.06

2.03

2.01

2.01

2

2

2

2

x-axis = number of extroverted friends, y-axis = number of introverted friends

 

Think about what “kind of friends” you have. By that I mean: How many introverted and extroverted friends? Then check the charts above: How many days do you (theoretically) have to wait until you meet a friend?

 

Did you also get 1095 days 😅? But hold on! Where do the 1095 days for 0 friends come from?

 

 

I chose to limit the number of waiting days to a maximum of three years. Otherwise the 0/0 cell would show the number infinity for i´s and e´s. This would have messed up the charts and following calculations.

 

Why did I choose three years (or 1095 days)? I guess in three years everybody should be able to make and meet at least one friend.

 

If you haven't met a friend in three years, let's hang out quickly so my charts are correct 😁.

How Pissed Off Is Ben?

Unfortunately the previous calculations still don't tell us who feels more alone. For that we need the relative difference between what a person wants and what a person receives.

 

An analogy:

  • Ben 👨 wants to earn 100€/h but gets only 50€/h. His salary is 50% below his expectations. 
  • Lisa 👩 wants to earn 1000€/h but gets only 950€/h. Her salary is 5% below her expectations.

 

Who do you think is pissed off more? Ben 👨 or Lisa 👩? I think it's Ben. Because even though, just like Lisa, he earns 50€ less than what he wants.  His relative difference (50%) is much higher than Lisas relative difference (5%).

 

Back to our own problem: Below you can see the same “relative difference calculation” for i’s and e’s and all friend group mixes.

The “How Alone Do You Feel” Factor

i4 - Relative difference between actual waiting and the optimum of 14 days 🏴‍☠️

(i) / (e)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

7721.43%

100.00%

33.36%

14.29%

6.64%

3.21%

1.57%

0.79%

0.36%

0.21%

0.07%

1

1300.00%

86.67%

30.23%

13.13%

6.16%

2.99%

1.47%

0.73%

0.36%

0.18%

0.09%

2

625.93%

75.79%

27.48%

12.08%

5.70%

2.77%

1.37%

0.68%

0.34%

0.17%

0.08%

3

401.65%

66.76%

25.03%

11.12%

5.27%

2.57%

1.27%

0.63%

0.31%

0.16%

0.08%

4

289.81%

59.17%

22.83%

10.25%

4.87%

2.38%

1.18%

0.58%

0.29%

0.15%

0.07%

5

222.96%

52.71%

20.86%

9.44%

4.51%

2.21%

1.09%

0.54%

0.27%

0.14%

0.07%

6

178.59%

47.17%

19.09%

8.71%

4.17%

2.04%

1.01%

0.50%

0.25%

0.13%

0.06%

7

147.07%

42.38%

17.48%

8.04%

3.86%

1.90%

0.94%

0.47%

0.23%

0.12%

0.06%

8

123.58%

38.19%

16.03%

7.42%

3.58%

1.76%

0.87%

0.43%

0.22%

0.11%

0.05%

9

105.45%

34.52%

14.72%

6.86%

3.31%

1.63%

0.81%

0.40%

0.20%

0.10%

0.05%

10

91.06%

31.29%

13.53%

6.34%

3.07%

1.51%

0.75%

0.37%

0.19%

0.09%

0.05%

11

79.39%

28.42%

12.44%

5.86%

2.85%

1.40%

0.70%

0.35%

0.17%

0.09%

0.04%

12

69.76%

25.86%

11.45%

5.42%

2.64%

1.30%

0.65%

0.32%

0.16%

0.08%

0.04%

13

61.71%

23.58%

10.55%

5.01%

2.44%

1.21%

0.60%

0.30%

0.15%

0.07%

0.04%

14

54.88%

21.53%

9.72%

4.63%

2.27%

1.12%

0.56%

0.28%

0.14%

0.07%

0.03%

15

49.04%

19.69%

8.96%

4.29%

2.10%

1.04%

0.52%

0.26%

0.13%

0.06%

0.03%

16

43.99%

18.03%

8.27%

3.97%

1.95%

0.96%

0.48%

0.24%

0.12%

0.06%

0.03%

17

39.61%

16.53%

7.63%

3.68%

1.81%

0.89%

0.45%

0.22%

0.11%

0.06%

0.03%

18

35.77%

15.17%

7.05%

3.41%

1.67%

0.83%

0.41%

0.21%

0.10%

0.05%

0.03%

19

32.38%

13.94%

6.51%

3.15%

1.55%

0.77%

0.38%

0.19%

0.10%

0.05%

0.02%

20

29.39%

12.81%

6.02%

2.92%

1.44%

0.71%

0.36%

0.18%

0.09%

0.04%

0.02%

x-axis = number of extroverted friends, y-axis = number of introverted friends

 

i4 - Relative difference between actual waiting and the optimum of 2 days 🦅

(i) / (e)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

54650.00%

100.00%

33.34%

14.29%

6.67%

3.22%

1.58%

0.78%

0.39%

0.19%

0.10%

1

1300.00%

86.67%

30.24%

13.13%

6.16%

2.99%

1.47%

0.73%

0.36%

0.18%

0.09%

2

625.93%

75.79%

27.48%

12.08%

5.70%

2.77%

1.36%

0.68%

0.34%

0.17%

0.09%

3

401.65%

66.76%

25.03%

11.12%

5.27%

2.57%

1.27%

0.63%

0.31%

0.15%

0.08%

4

289.81%

59.17%

22.83%

10.25%

4.88%

2.38%

1.17%

0.58%

0.29%

0.14%

0.08%

5

222.96%

52.72%

20.86%

9.44%

4.51%

2.20%

1.09%

0.54%

0.27%

0.13%

0.07%

6

178.59%

47.17%

19.09%

8.71%

4.18%

2.05%

1.01%

0.51%

0.25%

0.12%

0.07%

7

147.08%

42.38%

17.49%

8.04%

3.87%

1.90%

0.94%

0.47%

0.24%

0.11%

0.06%

8

123.59%

38.19%

16.04%

7.42%

3.58%

1.76%

0.87%

0.44%

0.22%

0.11%

0.06%

9

105.45%

34.53%

14.72%

6.86%

3.32%

1.63%

0.81%

0.41%

0.20%

0.10%

0.05%

10

91.06%

31.29%

13.53%

6.34%

3.07%

1.51%

0.75%

0.37%

0.18%

0.10%

0.05%

11

79.39%

28.42%

12.44%

5.86%

2.85%

1.40%

0.70%

0.34%

0.17%

0.09%

0.05%

12

69.77%

25.86%

11.45%

5.41%

2.64%

1.30%

0.65%

0.32%

0.16%

0.08%

0.04%

13

61.71%

23.58%

10.55%

5.01%

2.45%

1.20%

0.60%

0.30%

0.15%

0.08%

0.04%

14

54.88%

21.53%

9.72%

4.63%

2.27%

1.12%

0.55%

0.28%

0.14%

0.07%

0.04%

15

49.04%

19.69%

8.97%

4.29%

2.10%

1.04%

0.51%

0.26%

0.13%

0.07%

0.03%

16

44.00%

18.03%

8.27%

3.97%

1.95%

0.96%

0.48%

0.24%

0.12%

0.06%

0.03%

17

39.61%

16.53%

7.63%

3.68%

1.80%

0.90%

0.45%

0.22%

0.11%

0.06%

0.03%

18

35.77%

15.17%

7.05%

3.40%

1.68%

0.83%

0.42%

0.21%

0.11%

0.05%

0.03%

19

32.39%

13.94%

6.52%

3.16%

1.56%

0.77%

0.38%

0.19%

0.10%

0.05%

0.03%

20

29.39%

12.81%

6.02%

2.92%

1.44%

0.71%

0.35%

0.18%

0.09%

0.05%

0.02%

x-axis = number of extroverted friends, y-axis = number of introverted friends

 

Wow, both tables are exactly* the same. This means that introverts and extroverts are both feeling alone the same.

 

*The only difference is the first cell. Why is that? Earlier in the essay I told you I set a maximum waiting time of 1095 days if somebody has no friends at all 😅.

 

Now because this “zero friends limit” is exactly the same for i´s and e´s the relative difference for extroverts is much higher.

 

This means if you lock an extrovert in a single prison cell for 1095 days he will feel much more alone than an introvert. That's a no brainer. You probably already knew that.

Are You Satisfied?

I know I`m not. And since I´m the mayor of this “thought experiment world”, I'm making up one more rule: Extroverts have more friends than introverts. Which might also be true in real life?

 

To simplify this last chapter I calculated how alone i’s and e’s feel depending on the number of friends they have. Here’s this calculation for all possible friend group mixes:

 

Mixed friend groups

Friends

🏴‍☠️ Introvert

🦅Extrovert

1

700.00%

700.00%

2

248.65%

248.64%

3

130.49%

130.49%

4

80.76%

80.77%

5

54.77%

54.77%

6

39.36%

39.36%

7

29.46%

29.46%

8

22.71%

22.71%

9

17.92%

17.92%

10

14.40%

14.41%

x-axis = introvert or extrovert, y-axis = number of friends, colored cells = “feeling alone factor”

 

Now the numbers look different from what we saw before. Why is that? If an introvert has 1 friend, this one friend can either be an introvert or an extrovert. So the average “feeling alone factor” for one friend is: (1300% + 100%) / 2 = 700%

Introverts Feel More Alone

As you can see, the feeling alone factor for an introvert with 1 friend is higher than for an extrovert with 2 friends. We made progress. Introverts feel more alone than extroverts 🥲.  

 

But to be honest this feels too much like cheating. So I kept thinking: Isn't there something I might have forgotten? Yes, there is: We become friends with people who are like us. Which means extroverts have more extroverted friends & introverts have more introverted friends.

 

If i’s and e’s only have friends of the same kind, the new table looks like this:

 

Only friends of same kind

Friends

🏴‍☠️ Introvert

🦅Extrovert

1

1300.00%

100.00%

2

625.93%

33.34%

3

401.65%

14.29%

4

289.81%

6.67%

5

222.96%

3.22%

6

178.59%

1.58%

7

147.07%

0.78%

8

123.58%

0.39%

9

105.45%

0.19%

10

91.06%

0.10%

x-axis = introvert or extrovert, y-axis = number of friends, colored cells = “feeling alone factor”

 

As you can see, introverts feel shockingly more alone 😱. If both, i’s and e’s have only one friend, introverts feel 12 times more alone. If they both have 10 friends, introverts feel over 900 times more alone.

Conclusion

  • Introverts 🏴‍☠️ need some extroverts in their life to reduce feeling alone.
  • Extroverts 🦅 can benefit from an introvert friend if they have social stress.

 

 

Now there's only one question left to ask: Are you an extrovert and want to hang out in 14 days?

 

Thanks to Maria for reading drafts of this.

Thanks @Ericf for pointing out a mistake in my calculation

 

 

 


 

New Comment
2 comments, sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:

The clean lines make me think you didn't use hypergeometric calculations. If I have 2 extrovert friends, on any given day 0 (25%), 1(50%), or 2(25%) of them will want to hang out. If I want to hang out on day N, there is a 25% chance I fail to.

@Ericf you are right, I didn't calculate it like this. I´m going to adjust the formula to see if it changes the overall outcome of the essay or not.