I think there's something missing from this story; if misalignment is random and rare then naively you'd expect it not to be too impactful, competing against the much larger mass of aligned behaviour. So it seems we either need
I'm assuming that we need to act as if we're in adversaria, and we should try to spot and root out misalignment traps even if rare. So the bar to take action isn't that high. But directly, I also think (1) is likely to be true: there's tons of hypothetical agents out there, most (all) humans are misaligned when scaled up to AGI, so the world is full of such bad data generation. And, the agents producing much of the synthetic data are misaligned. And, this data will percolate in clustered ways (cybersecurity textbooks) such that the pressure to "flip" can be concentrated. Also, I feel that (2) is partly handled by this:
This may work against us in asymmetric ways. A bad act in theory is strong evidence that you're a bad agent, while a good act is weak evidence that you're good, since bad agents should try to behave well when watched. And, the new self-model would produce new behaviour that confirms it.
Thank you very much for writing this. As a new user, I appreciate all sources that provide simplified explanations of alignment concepts.
Concerning "So, even an aligned model could learn its way into being misaligned.", could this have implications that misaligned models, even of a somewhat inferior capability level, can potentially develop more and more sophisticated ways to subvert their aligned counterparts, with the balance of power somewhat in their favor (in this specific dimension at least) due to the disparity between the amount of corrupted data necessary and the objective of subversion?
Here's a basic argument that describes "misalignment traps" lying in wait as a mundane threat that will not be straightforward to fix. The argument is as follows:
This was written in the spirit of More people should write basic AI safety explainers. Credit to Xander Davies for an earlier conversation that inspired this.
Some examples include:
Another plausible but more toy example are the datasets in O'Brien et al. and Dymkiewicz et al. which wraps the datasets in a something you might want the model to learn (like using Shakespearean prose or technical terminology), but these are more surface level tendencies and don't motivate actually training on the dataset that well (e.g., you can prompt models to do this, so why fine-tune?)
You can think of this as a mundane form of value systematization, where the model compresses its data into the simplest agent that explains it, then just acts as that agent everywhere (modulo some contextualisation).