I'm currently most of the way through Alex Epstein's Fossil Future, and I find the arguments within very convincing.
In (extreme) brevity, they are:
- Fossil Fuel use and the cheap energy it enables is responsible for unprecedented human flourishing for billions. Billions more need access to ever-increasing amounts of cheap energy to flourish.
- Any argument against fossil fuel use must argue that its side effects (CO2 warming the planet) overwhelm the good they do by providing cheap energy. These side effects must be so bad that it's worth compromising the safety and flourishing of billions of humans to curtail their use. Such an argument must also prove that those negative side effects are beyond what humanity is capable of adapting to or overcoming, given cheap energy provided by fossil fuels.
- No such argument is justifiable, given the current state of climate science.
Does anyone (preferably those who've read the book, although I don't want to restrict answers to just those people) have an opposing view/opinion, and if so why?
I'd like to do my intellectual homework on this one, and actively seek disagreement, given how convincing I've found the argument so far.
Thank you for the long and detailed response! This was exactly the sort of stuff I was looking for.
I think the foundation of Epstein's argument - that we should be prioritizing human flourishing (which requires large and increasing amounts of cheap energy) and carefully evaluating the costs and benefits of our choices (not just the costs) is largely accurate.
That being said, you've made me think that Epstein's treatment of solar, wind, and other alternatives to fossil fuels is perhaps too short and/or not up-to-date.
Out of curiosity, how long would you expect it to take for a large percentage of the world (say, already-developed economies) to move to getting 90% of our energy needs from non-carbon-emitting sources? Based on my own understanding, what you've said, and the current state of permitting and environmental review, I'd guess no sooner than 2050 at the very earliest, with 2075 being more likely.