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Same general assumptions, taken in a somewhat different direction.
(I'm just browsing messages in the middle of the night, so will have to wait to respond to the rest of your post for some hours. In the meantime, the response to my question at https://www.reddit.com/r/rational/comments/2g09xh/bstqrsthsf_factchecking_some_quantum_math/ckex8ul seems worth reading.)
So, suppose I rig up a machine with the following behaviour. It "flips a coin" (actually, in case it matters, exploiting some source of quantum randomness so that heads and tails have more or less exactly equal quantum measure). If it comes up heads, it arranges that in ten years' time you will be very decisively killed.
If we take "Pr(L)=1" (in that comment's notation) seriously then it follows that Pr(tails)=1 too. But if there are 100 of you using these machines, then about 50 are going to see heads; and if you are confident of gettin... (read more)