cleonid

1) Traditional politics is much better approximated by a binary. Person’s views on one significant issue, such as feminism, pretty accurately predict positions on foreign policy, economics and environmental issues. By comparison, optimate/populare labels have much less predictive power. While there is a significant correlation between populare (optimate) and left (right)-wing views on economics and foreign policy, both optimates and populares are much more likely to cross ideological lines on individual issues.

2) On average, both populares and optimates are more libertarian and less religious than the traditional left and right.

Replying toOpen thread, December 7-13, 2015

cleonid10y

Open thread, December 7-13, 2015

From Omnilibrium:

Replying toOpen thread, Nov. 23 - Nov. 29, 2015

cleonid10y

Open thread, Nov. 23 - Nov. 29, 2015

From Omnilibrium:

Replying toOpen thread, Nov. 02 - Nov. 08, 2015

cleonid10y

Open thread, Nov. 02 - Nov. 08, 2015

From Omnilibrium:

Replying toOpen thread, Oct. 26 - Nov. 01, 2015

cleonid10y

Open thread, Oct. 26 - Nov. 01, 2015

From Omnilibrium:

Replying toExperiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

cleonid10y

Experiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

If the number of extended discussions is uncorrelated with the post's karma (except maybe for strongly downvoted posts), and the number of extended discussion comments dominates the number of total comments, then that is evidence that correlations between the number of total comments and the post's karma are spurious.

If the number of extended discussions is uncorrelated with the post's karma, then they would simply add a random noise component to the graph. I think it’s pretty obvious from the graph that the signal to noise ratio is quite high.

Replying toExperiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

cleonid10y

Experiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

That would require a non-trivial amount of work. Is there a particular reason you are interested in this?

Experiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

cleonid

10y

1. Problem

In the market economy production is driven by monetary incentives – higher reward for an economic activity makes more people willing to engage in it. Internet forums follow the same principle but with a different currency - instead of money the main incentive of internet commenters is the reaction of their audience. A strong reaction expressed by a large number of replies or “likes” encourages commenters to increase their output. Its absence motivates them to quit posting or change their writing style.

On neutral topics, using audience reaction as an incentive works reasonably well: attention focuses on the most interesting or entertaining comments. However, on partisan issues,... (read 463 more words →)

Should you write longer comments? (Statistical analysis of the relationship between comment length and ratings)

cleonid

11y

A few months ago we have launched an experimental website. In brief, our goal is to create a platform where unrestricted freedom of speech would be combined with high quality of discussion. The problem can be approached from two directions. One is to help users navigate through content and quickly locate the higher quality posts. Another, which is the topic of this article, is to help users improve the quality of their own posts by providing them with meaningful feedback.

One important consideration for those who want to write better comments is how much detail to leave out. Our statistical analysis shows that for many users there is a strong connection between the ratings and the... (read 273 more words →)

Rational Discussion of Controversial Topics

cleonid

11y

Two months ago we began testing an experimental website for Rational Discussion of Politics. Our main goal was to create a platform that would allow high quality discussion of controversial topics without resorting to any forms of censorship. The website is now ready and new members are welcome to join the discussions.

Many thanks to all the LessWrong members who have been taking part in this project.

P.S. A note to new users. A key feature of the new website is the automated recommendation system which evaluates all comments and articles based on their potential interest for each user. The recommendation system has passed the initial calibration, but its ongoing performance is sensitive to the number of user ratings per comment/article. So rating posts that you read is highly encouraged.

Measuring open-mindedness

cleonid

11y

Recently we have opened an experimental website for Rational Discussion of Politics. A special feature of the new website is an automated recommendation system which studies user preferences based on their voting records. The purpose of this feature is to enhance the quality of discussion without using any form of censorship.

The recommendation system was previously tested with the help of 30 members of a political discussion forum. The tests have shown that most user preferences can be reasonably well described by just two parameters. The system chooses the parameters (principal vectors) independently based only on the numerical data (comment ratings), but it was easy to see that one vector corresponded to the “leftwing... (read 194 more words →)

Rational discussion of politics

cleonid

11y

In a recent poll, many LW members expressed interest in a separate website for rational discussion of political topics. The website has been created, but we need a group of volunteers to help us test it and calibrate its recommendation system (see below).

If you would like to help (by participating in one or two discussions and giving us your feedback) please sign up here.

About individual recommendation system

All internet forums face a choice between freedom of speech and quality of debate. In absence of censorship, constructive discussions can be easily disrupted by the inflow of the mind-killed which causes the more intelligent participants to leave or descend to the same level.

Preserving quality thus usually requires at... (read more)

Natural Selection of Government Systems

cleonid

11y

Historically, the evolution of government systems was mainly driven by violence, with invasions and revolutions being the principal agents of selection process. The rules of the game were predetermined by our environment - land was a limited resource, for which our ancestors had to compete, if only to ensure the survival of their descendants.

The 20^th century introduced a game changer. As agricultural productivity in developed countries rose by orders of magnitude and natural population growth practically came to a halt, possessing a large territory stopped being a necessity. Countries with little arable land, ultra-high population density and no natural resources can now not only feed their population, but also achieve top living... (read 338 more words →)

What makes you YOU? For non-deists only.

cleonid

16y

From the dawn of civilization humans believed in eternal life. The flesh may rot, but the soul will be reborn. To save the soul from the potential adverse living conditions (e.g. hell), the body, being the transient and thus the less important part, was expected to make sacrifices. To accumulate the best possible karma, pleasures of the flesh had to be given up or at least heavily curtailed.

Naturally the wisdom of this trade-off was questioned by many skeptical minds. The idea of reincarnation may have a strong appeal to imagination, but in absence of any credible evidence the Occam’s razor mercilessly cuts it into pieces. Instead of sacrificing for the sake of

... (read 230 more words →)

The Hidden Origins of Ideas

cleonid

17y

It is well known that people tend to inherit their world view toghether with their genes. Buddhists are born to the Buddhists, Muslims are born to the Muslims and Republicans are born to the Republicans. While rejecting Predestination, a XVI century catholic could be fairly certain that, unlike hell-bound pagans in the Amazonian forests, most of his descendants would also be catholics.

Naturally independent minds can occasionally break with the tradition. A catholic, finding the Pope’s stance on Predestination inconsistent with the Scriptures, might turn to Protestantism. Hence, the invention of the printing press that made Bibles widely available may have been the root cause of the Reformation. Similarly, the spread of literacy to... (read more)

Rational Defense of Irrational Beliefs

cleonid

17y

“Everyone complains of his memory, but nobody of his judgment." This maxim of La Rochefoucauld rings as true today as it did back in the XVIIth century. People tend overestimate their reasoning abilities even when this overconfidence has a direct monetary cost. For instance, multiple studies have shown that investors who are more confident of their ability to beat the market receive lower returns on their investments. This overconfidence penalty applies even to the supposed experts, such as fund managers.

So what an expert rationalist should do to avoid this overconfidence trap? The seeming answer is that we should rely less on our own reasoning and more on the “wisdom of the crowds”.... (read more)

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

Rational discussion of politics

Experiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

Should you write longer comments? (Statistical analysis of the relationship between comment length and ratings)

Measuring open-mindedness

cleonid

cleonid

Experiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

Should you write longer comments? (Statistical analysis of the relationship between comment length and ratings)

Rational Discussion of Controversial Topics

Measuring open-mindedness

Rational discussion of politics

Natural Selection of Government Systems

What makes you YOU? For non-deists only.

cleonid

Rational discussion of politics

Experiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

Should you write longer comments? (Statistical analysis of the relationship between comment length and ratings)

Measuring open-mindedness

cleonid

cleonid

Experiment: Changing minds vs. preaching to the choir

Should you write longer comments? (Statistical analysis of the relationship between comment length and ratings)

Rational Discussion of Controversial Topics

Measuring open-mindedness

Rational discussion of politics

Natural Selection of Government Systems

What makes you YOU? For non-deists only.