We have this forecast on Metaculus that is exactly about such an AI, it would be interesting to try to resolve it : https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/
I was quite pessimistic (for humans) so this would confirm it but I'll wait a bit for more infos and tests before thinking it's over.
It's a pity that you stopped doing these
Sure, if you want to go hands free or mobile you might talk to your phone or computer, but typing is just better than speaking, and a mouse is more precise than a gesture, and AI won’t change that.
This is true for people here but I'm not sure it's necessarily true for the world at large considering the average typing speed. Most people would find it much easier to speak to their computer than type to it. (and they would be able to exchange much faster)
Thanks for the detailed and clear answer! I mostly agree with you.
Each regulation has a cost. Of course privacy and sensitive data protection is a nice to have, but is it worth the marginal cost it imposes? Or another way to see it: When you have a large number of costly regulations, you raise the cost to the point that the EU tech industry underperforms:
There is a clear difference in mindset like you said. Europe is less inclined towards entrepreneurship and more towards a powerful state that regulates the economy. I won't lie, I am often disappointed when looking at it on the entrepreneur side.
But overall, and I think that's the whole point : most europeans are fine with it because of the tons of protections it brings to citizens compared to... well pretty much everywhere else. (again this is looking at a very broad picture, there are huge differences in Europe between countries, people, etc...)
Here, GDPR is often looked at through the eyes of americans and obviously it's completely against the US way : that was actually the point, exactly like the tax on digital services and other "attacks" against tech giants. Americans can say they hate the GDPR, that's fine with me but always saying "this is so stupid" is imho misunderstanding its goal.
GDPR is clearly not perfect but this incessant bashing is tiring. Not everything has to be about being more productive. Privacy and sensitive data protection matters. I find it kind of sad to have to say those things when it's been a year of constant warnings about the future dangers of AIs.
It's easier to not care about it when half the companies leeching data are US based but from what I read about the TikTok ban, as soon as it's not an american company, then it's a big problem. The EU cannot rely on the US (and US companies) to care about them or be very reliable (and have proven that time and time again).
I feel you, I'm a lawyer in France in civil law and people will deform so many things that you will learn about so late in the process that it gets very difficult (if possible at all) to backtrack.
I'm coming very late to this but it is also possible that the people forecasting on each of the questions are noticeably different and they have different ideas about AI. Maybe some just don't know about the other questions. It won't explain everything but it could be a factor.
Also, it is difficult to keep all your forecasts up to date. You can forget.
I feel like theses posts get less likes than before (and I often forget to like them) but they really are great to keep up with what's happening. Thanks for doing it!
Edit : I should have read more carefully.