All of Simon Berens's Comments + Replies

Re twitter’s profitability, Musk about doubled EBITDA despite revenue halving, i.e. he more than tripled EBITDA margin

https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-x-doubled-ebitda-since-2022-takeover-report/amp

As a counterpoint, Sydney showed aligning these models on the first go, and even discovering unsafe behavior is non-trivial.

The flip side of this is that it helps to speak in a way that’s almost repetitive to make sure someone who zoned out can catch back up.

For example, frequently once the subject/object of a sentence is known, people refer to the subject/object with pronouns instead of repeating the subject/object. If someone misses the initial definition, they are immediately lost.

(This also applies somewhat to writing — above, I’m repeating “subject/object” instead of “it”. People also zone out during reading, and this repetition saves them from having to scroll back up and figure out what a pronoun is referencing.)

4DirectedEvolution
Using repetitive speech can also cause people to zone out, irritate them, or make them think you're being forgetful. Repetitive speech and other simplification tactics can also backfire. For example, if you try to oversimplify your presentation so that 'everyone can understand,' not realizing that a small core of fellow experts wanted and could have handled much more detail, while the majority weren't going to follow you (or care) no matter how much you simplified. If people then see you do this (performing pedagogy rather than inter-expert discourse), it can be seen as a misjudgment about the purpose of the event and the desires of the audience. Repetitive speech has its uses, but it's important to be thoughtful about context, your goals, and the goals of your audience.

Did you feel a subjective increase in your intelligence? E.g. feeling like you’re thinking faster, more clearly, having a better memory?

Cool project!

I’m curious—what does the long tail of websites look like for you? For me, it’s the small number of sites that i repeatedly go to (twitter, youtube, hackernews, etc…) that take up the vast majority of my wasted time.

(Btw, I also built my own website blocker: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/webblock/jeahkphmdfbddenabgndnooheiciocka)

2Sergii
well apparently after blocking the worst offenders I just wander quite randomly, according to RescueTime here are 5 1-minute visits making up 5 minutes I'm not getting back :) store.steampowered.com  rarehistoricalphotos.com  gamedesign.jp  corridordigital.com electricsheepcomix.com

I think the main beneficiaries of being able to sideload apps will be incumbents, not startups. Big companies like Spotify, Netflix, and Tinder will offer users discounts if they sideload because it will spare them the 30% Apple tax.

I am confused how to square your claim of requesting extra time for incontrovertible proof, with Ben’s claim that he had a 3 hour call with you and sent the summary to Emerson, who then replied “good summary!”

Was Emerson’s full reply something like, “Good summary! We have incontrovertible proof disproving the claims made against us, please allow us one week to provide it?”

KatWoods5019

Yes, Ben took Emerson’s full email out of context, implying that Emerson was fully satisfied when in actuality, Emerson was saying, no, there is more to discuss - so much that we’d need a week to organize it.


 

He got multiple extremely key things wrong in that summary and was also missing key points we discussed on the call, but we figured there would be no reason he wouldn’t give us a week to clear everything up. Especially since he had been working on it for months.

I agree AI should be regulated, but lumping social media in with AI only weakens your argument.

Also, is it just me or does this writing style feel like a NYT op-ed?

You might want to clarify that, because in the post you explicitly say things like “if your goal is to predict the logits layer, then you should probably learn about Shakespearean dramas, Early Modern English, and the politics of the Late Roman Republic.”

3Cleo Nardo
okay, I'll clarify in the article — 

This is probably obvious, but maybe still worth mentioning:

It’s important to take into account the ROI per unit time. In the amount of time it would take for me to grok transformers (let’s say 100 hours), I could read ~1 million tokens, which is ~0.0002% of the training set of GPT3.

The curves aren’t clear to me, but i would bet grokking transformers would be more effective than a 0.0002% increase in training set knowledge.

This might change if you only want to predict GPT’s output in certain scenarios.

gwern*362

I think you would get diminishing returns but reading a few hundred thousand tokens would teach you quite a lot, and I think likely more than knowing Transformers would. I'm not convinced that Transformers are all that important (architectures seem to converge at scale, you can remove attention entirely without much damage, not much of the FLOPS is self-attention at this point, etc), but you learn a lot about why GPT-3 is the way it is if you pay attention to the data. For example, BPEs/poetry/puns: you will struggle in vain to explain the patterns of GPT ... (read more)

I don't think researchers should learn world-facts in order to understand GPT-4.

I think that (1) researchers should use the world-facts they already know (but are actively suppressing due to learned vibe-obliviousness) to predict/explain/control GPT-4, and (2) researchers should consult a domain expert if they want to predict/explain/control GPT-4's output on a particular prompt.

I agree that recursive self-improvement can be very very bad; in this post I meant to show that we can get less-bad-but-still-bad behavior from only (LLM, REPL) combinations.

4Vladimir_Nesov
I'm saying a more specific/ominous thing than "recursive self-improvement". It seems plausible that these days, it might only take a few years for a talented enthusiast with enough luck and compute to succeed in corraling agentic LLM characters into automatic generation of datasets that train a wide range of specified skills. Starting with a GPT-4-level pretrained model, with some supervised fine-tuning to put useful characters in control, let alone with RLAIF when that inevitably gets open-sourced, and some prompt engineering to cause the actual dataset generation. Or else starting with characters like ChatGPT, better yet its impending GPT-4-backed successor and all the copycats, with giant 32K token contexts, it might take merely prompt engineering, nothing more. Top labs would do this better, faster, and more inevitably, with many more alternative techniques at their fingertips. Paths to generation of datasets for everything all at once (augmented pretraining) are less clear (and present a greater misalignment hazard), but lead to the same outcome more suddenly and comprehensively. This is the salient implication of Bing Chat appearing to be even more intelligent than ChatGPT, likely sufficiently so to follow complicated requests and guidelines outlining skill-forming dataset generation, given an appropriate character that would mostly actually do the thing.

Yeah, this isn't something I have an ugh field around, but having portable versions of travel stuff like shampoo, skincare, and chargers ready to go is nice.

Awesome! What GitHub integration are you talking about?

1ubyjvovk
Signup with Github flow

I think the hackernews comment section, though still somewhat emotionally charged, is of substantially better quality.

Also, I responded to some comments/questions there.

This is awesome! I highly encourage you to write up your experience; I think this should be more normalized!

I didn’t feel a difference; I guess because it was my iron reserves that were low, not my actual iron levels.

But yeah, if it does continue to be a problem I will do something like that.

Sure, but my point was I don't know what dose per unit time to take.

A relevant experience of mine: after being vegan for ~1 year, I got my blood tested to see if there was anything I should watch out for. It turned out that my iron reserves were low, so I was told to take iron supplements. One year later I got another blood test where my iron levels came back as too high. My doctor was confused until I told him I still sporadically took iron supplements; he told me to stop immediately, and that as a male I didn't need to supplement iron much.

Now I feel like I'm in a damned-if-I-do-damned-if-I-don't limbo; it would be great to have some sort of framework of when/if to take iron supplements.

2DirectedEvolution
Did you notice supplementing iron making you feel better? If so, perhaps it would be worth getting several tests and adjusting your dose until the tests come back consistently normal?
4Lukas Finnveden
One what later? Year, month?
8Raemon
Is there not an option to take a lower dose of iron supplements?

I think a wrench and 20 minutes of time is (1) a higher barrier than you think (not to say it justifies the lack of bidet) and (2) is an underestimate of how inconvenient installing it is. I installed a bidet a few years ago and it probably took 2+ hours and ended up leaking. When I moved, I opted not to install one again and instead follow #2 with a shower. 

However, I agree bidets are great modulo the installation, and I will try to buy a toilet with one pre-installed.

2Lakin
ahh

I actually had that as an example in a draft, but my friends told me it didn't quite fit the mold so I deleted it :)

Thanks! Here is the extension I made: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/webblock/jeahkphmdfbddenabgndnooheiciocka

Admittedly, I copped out on the UX in a few places (motivation section, link parsing, etc...) but better to publish than wait for perfection!

Edit: 

Right after I published my extension, I found these similar tools:

... (read more)
Answer by Simon Berens10

Aha upon further searching I came across this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HaESgyu2BqDMTpujS/a-better-web-is-coming 

It's not the post I remember reading but it's definitely about the same same topic so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I shouldn't have used a company for my example because as you illustrated that's not a very interesting case; if it wasn't a company but the government (e.g. the TSA), does economic theory say those jobs will come back in a more efficient form?

2Dagon
Even without competition, the flow of constrained resources still applies. Public or private, no theory says that the jobs will come back in a more efficient form. The theory does say that _someone_ always pays for inefficiency. In the TSA case, customers/travelers suffer greatly, and taxpayers as well. Employing fewer humans would benefit some of them (by motivating them to find jobs that are better for them), and harm some (by forcing them into the less-rewarding next-best job they can find), just like in the company case. And it would benefit customers and owners(taxpayers), just like in the company case. Whether humanity overall is better off with that efficiency is a question of aggregation, for which I don't think there is an objective answer. I believe that, in almost all cases, efficiency is an improvement for the median and average human, when measured on decade timescales, even when it seems a loss for shorter timescales or subgroups.

To What Extent is Creating Jobs Good

Is it always better to remove/replace inefficient jobs? For example if a company employs 100 people to do manual data entry, would it be better for either the economy or the utility function to fire them and automate the jobs?

4Dagon
There's enough sublety and variance in benefits (to employee, employer, and/or customers) of "a job" that I don't think there's any simple answer. In most cases, the benefits are not evenly distributed, so you hit the problem of interpersonal comparison - if you hurt 100 and help 1000, by hard-to-measure amounts, is that good? My ideal definition of "job" is "opportunity to perform/produce something of value to others, and to capture enough of that incremental value that you're better off doing it than the next-best thing you could do with that time/effort". It's clearly better for the company's owners, the company's customers, and the company's vendors to automate: things are faster and more accurate without manual data re-entry. Some of the 100 laid-off employees will benefit by the realization that there's easier or more rewarding work they can do (improving the automation, or harder-to-automate data entry somewhere else). Some of them will be harmed because that opportunity no longer exists, and their next-best opportunity is not as rewarding. Is it overall beneficial? Depends on your aggregation function. But it doesn't really matter - it's enough improvement to customers and vendors that the company needs to automate to stay in business at all.

How did you meet your roommates? I would like to surround myself with similar people (perhaps less extreme).