spectralshift

I didn't think utility mattered at the start, but the numbers get so large so fast that it probably should. So the first issue is identifying if you are theoretically optimizing (max value in min time) or satisficing. Optimizing is simple - always invest when +EV exists/sell when -EV exists. Even if you ruin 99% of the time, you'll average the highest returns (1 - note below on actual optimization).

The only reason this is complicated is because of the second issue; the risk of ruin. This issue is actually minor in a normal random walk situation.

I've simulated a few rules and assumptions to validate the argument. Since this leverages timing, even a... (read more)

I get a very different result when I run these numbers. I'm not from the UK so I may be interpreting the tax rules incorrectly, but here's the logic chain I used to model it (year one, so that it can be duplicated and logic verified);

• If I invest 100,000 and pay the .5% stamp, I actually invest 99502.49
• Dividends for the year would be 1990.05, of which I lose 746.27 to tax, leaving 1243.78 for reinvestment
• Expected capital gains would be 4975.12 (99502.49 * 0.05)
• Reinvesting the dividends of 1243.78 loses 0.5%, leaving 1237.56
• Expected value at end of year 1 is 105715.2 (99502.49 + 4975.12 + 1237.56)

At the end of year ten, I expect 182334.10... (read more)

Generally it seems that any organisation system is highly personal as there are many individual kinks to be worked out such that there is almost no way to have a holistic system apply to everyone. Also, the vast majority of people are not interested in these kind of things, I think.

This seems very true to me and now seems like the largest factor. That combined with it being a horrendous amount of work, although I believe that may be because there is no foundation to draw on.

Also the whole thing is overwhelming. When I tried to do stuff like track my budget I ran into the problem that I would need to

You might be interested in the book Getting Things Done.

Much appreciated, I'll take a look!

This allows you focus on things you're doing in the moment, without worrying that you're forgetting a bunch of things you still need to do.

I think this is a large part of it, but it seems like a subset of what I'm thinking about. This is a great answer if someone came up to you and asked "how do you get things done?", and it is a pretty broad planning approach. Even better, those who use a similar system can talk about their approach, ideally sharing ideas and "best practices". Even when I googled the book,... (read more)

This may be long for a stupid question... and it's not really one question... but it seems like a safe first post kind of place! It has just been on my mind a lot the last few months.

I was recently doing a review of my workplace's management system and used personal life examples to demonstrate why the management system is (/would of been) effective. Instead of convincing anyone else, I convinced myself my life would be better off if I had a personal management system.

I've googled high and low and found nothing that I could draw on. The amount of self-help and motivational books I waded through though... that was impressive.... (read 590 more words →)