Judging from the recent decline of LW, it seems that the initial success of LW wasn't due to rationality, but rather due to Eliezer's great writing. If we want LW to become a fun place again, we should probably focus on writing skills instead of rationality skills. Not everyone can be as good as Eliezer or Yvain, but there's probably a lot of low hanging fruit. For example, we pretty much know what kind of fiction would appeal to an LWish audience (HPMOR, Worm, Homestuck...) and writing more of it seems like an easier task than writing fiction with mass-market appeal.
Does anyone else feel that it might be a promising direction for the community? Is there a more structured way to learn writing skills?
I have noticed that many people here want LW resurrection for the sake of LW resurrection.
But why do you want it in the first place?
Do you care about rationality? Then research rationality and write about it, here or anywhere else. Do you enjoy the community of LWers? Then participate in meetups, discuss random things in OTs, have nice conversations, etc. Do you want to write more rationalist fiction? Do it. And so on.
After all, if you think that Eliezer's writing constitute most of LW value, and Eliezer doesn't write here anymore, maybe the wise decision is to let it decay.
Beware the lost purposes.
I'm about to start being paid for a job, and I was looking at investment advice from LW. I found this thread from a while back and it seemed good, but it's also 4 years old. Can anyone confirm if the first bullet is still accurate? (get VTSMX or VFINX on vanguard, it doesn't matter too much which one.)
Everything is math, but that doesn't mean that the word "biology" isn't useful. Even if healthcare isn't a perfect word or even a perfect concept, it helps us in everyday conversations and discussions about the way the world works and should work.
Now that my review of Plato's Camera has about 17 PDF pages of real content, does anyone want to proof-read/advance-read it to help avoid babbling?
I recently stumbled upon the Wikipedia entry on finitism (there is even ultrafinitism). However, the article on ultrafinitism mentions that no satisfactory development in this field exists at present. I'm wondering in which way the limitation to finite mathematical objects (say a set of natural numbers with a certain largest number n) would limit 'everyday' mathematics. What kind of mathematics would we still be able do (cryptography, analysis, linear algebra …)?
Is such a long answer suitable in OT? If not, where should I move it?
tl;dr Naive ultrafinitism is based on real observations, but its proposals are a bit absurd. Modern ultrafinitism has close ties with computation. Paradoxically, taking ultrafinitism seriously has led to non-trivial developments in classical (usual) mathematics. Finally: ultrafinitism would probably be able to interpret all of classical mathematics in some way, but the details would be rather messy.
1 Naive ultrafinitism
1.1. There are many different ways of representing (writing down) mathematical objects.
The naive ultrafinitist chooses a representation, calls it explicit, and says that a number is "truly" written down only when its explicit representation is known. The prototypical choice of explicit representation is the tallying system, where 6 is written as ||||||. This choice is not arbitrary either: the foundations of mathematics (e. g. Peano arithmetic) use these tally marks by necessity.
However, the integers are a special^1 case, and in the general case, the naive ultrafinitist insistance on fixing a representation starts looking a bit absurd. Take Linear Algebra: should you choose an explicit bas...
On commitment devices: I think this article: http://blog.beeminder.com/akrasia/ is essentially correct. However I am not at all convinced Beeminder is the best approach for self-binding. Texting a number to robot or get another number booked away from my bank account is far too impersonal for me. It surely has its uses, I just wish we had many different kinds of commitment devices to choose from.
In the ancestral environment it was all about physical needs and social needs. Still these are the strongest motivators. For example someone who wants to get fit ...
I’m trying to translate some material from LessWrong for a friend (interested with various subjects aborded here, but can’t read english…), and I’m struggling to find the best translation for “evidence”. I have many candidates, but every one of them is a little bit off relative to the connotation of "evidence". Since it’s a so central term in all the writings here, I figured out that it could not be bad to spend a little time finding a really good translation, rather than a just-okayish one.
English readers :
Full disclosure here regarding personal issues. I'm looking for advice on how to resolve them to the point where they no longer affect my life majorly. I don't expect an issue this ingrained into my psyche to ever be gotten rid of entirely. I'm sure there are other places more directly related to the subject that I could request this advice, but LWers have usually seemed to have something useful to add to things.
Recently (toward the end of 2013), I slowed, and then stopped taking Zoloft for what was purported to be emotional instability, since I was about ...
Let's have fun offering what-have-you questions for Fermi estimates! If we are here for fun, at least partially, let's save some in quantifiable form. Here's mine:
Would a standard piece of soap (neutral pH, lens-like shape) sink to the bottom of the Mariana Trench, or will it get dissolved on the way down?
Now I want a fic in which Hermione wins a goat in the MH problem, on the grounds that Ron and Harry shouldn't be trusted with a car, and they do need an antidote...
How much data for an uploaded mind?
What are your confidence levels that any resolution of brain-scans will be enough to create an emulated human mind? Or, put another way, how much RAM do you think an emulated mind would require to be run?
Partially relatedly, do you know of any more useful trend-lines on how fast brain-scanning technology is improving over the decades than http://www.singularity.com/charts/page159.html and https://imgur.com/cJWmOd1 ?
What's your success criterion? Do you mean a human mind that the unuploaded copy will accept as a successful upload? Or that the relatives will accept? Or that some panel of expert judges will accept? In the latter cases, will it have to be unanimous?
Some people with particularly detailed Facebook timelines can conceivably be emulated well enough to fool the very gullible without any uploading taking place at all. Very senile people would also be easy to emulate. Babies would be easier than people with complex memories. Very rational people would be easier than those with idiosyncratic patterns of reasoning. People who do work that is hard to characterize (like architecture) would be easier to emulate than those who do work we find easy to characterize (like fiction writing). And so on.
I imagine, on the one hand, a brain scan and emulation system that convinces a couple of aging relatives that granny is now in the computer. And on the other hand, a system that allows a team of expert scientists to keep working together after the demise of one of them. Where on this spectrum is what you mean?
Because I wouldn't be surprised if the former took a million times less memory and computational power than the latter.
Did I use Bayes' formula correctly here?
Prior: 1/20
12/20 chance that test A returns correctly +
16/20 chance that test B returns correctly +
12.5/20 chance that test C returns correctly +
Odds of correct diagnosis?
I got 1/2
Link: Complexity-Induced Mental Illness
My personal estimate is that 75% of adults are suffering from some sort of serious mental problem because the human interface to life is broken. In the year 2015, life serves up a level of complexity and unrelenting stimulation that most folks can’t handle it, and I believe it is frying our brains.
I think he is right and that's an actual insight. The typical mind fallacy would suggest that you wouldn't notice that if it doesn't apply to you and esp. on LW I'd guess that most people can deal with a lot of complexit...
From a utilitarian perspective what Stannis did on last night's Game of Thrones was completely justified, correct? Yet Slate is calling him "This Week's Worst Person in Westeros." Please no spoilers from people who have read past this point in the books. It seems like a key theme of Game of Thrones is that you should be a consequentialist utilitarian.
At some point I wrote a reply to a new comer to LW that basically said leave lesswrong and study science, math and philosophy or something like that. It was emotionally charged and undeserved. It reflected my emotionally state at the time and was unreasoned. I can't find it anymore, but feel ashamed of that illconsidered advise. Unfortunately I can't find the reply to retract it, but if anyone happens to see that, is convinced, then checks out my post history, maybe they'll see this and reconsider. If nothing else, writing this clears my conscience.
What do we really understand about the perception of time speeding up as we get older? Every time I have seen it brought up one of two explanations are given. Either time is speeding up because we have fewer novel experiences which, in turn, lead to fewer new memories being created. Then, supposedly, our feeling of time passing is dependent on how many new memories we have in a given time frame and so we feel time is speeding up.
The other explanation I have seen is that time speeds up because each new year is a smaller percentage of your life up to that ...
Why would Friendly AI need to be fully artificial? Just upload a Verified Nice Person and throw a lot of hardware on him/her?
Cf. the old adage: Power corrupts. Thinking 1000x faster than everyone around you is one variety of power.
I hope I'm posting this correctly. I swear that I did my best to research how to use open threads here but to no avail. This is a poem I posted a few days ago in discussion, and I am attempting to have it talked about in open thread where it "belongs."
I've been considering poetry that I write of this nature to be of a Reason/Cyberpunk/Transhuman sort of genre. Feedback would be appreciated.
I forever wish to change from who I am today,
Yet as I am today, I do not wish to cease.
Who am I in this moment?
I am nothing to myself without the passage of...
I've been reading the discussion between Holden et al on the utility of charities aimed at directly decreasing existential risk, but the discussion seems to have ended prematurely. It (basically) started with this post, then went to this post. Holden made a comment addressing the post, but I think it didn't fully address the post and I don't think Holden's comment was fully addressed either. Is there any place that continues the discussion?
Why is the date or year of publication usually missing from PDF versions of research publications?
Is this a convention, perhaps specific to certain fields? I find it frustrating at times and am curious as to the reason behind it.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.