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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong

42 Post author: komponisto 13 December 2009 04:16AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 December 2009 04:46:32AM 2 points [-]

The problem is that finding Guede's semen inside Meredith is not evidence against the hypothesis "Guede and Knox murdered Meredith". Guede's already been caught, too. So now the question is whether to devote any of our remaining attention to trying to catch Knox, and the insufficient/disconfirmatory evidence for this fails to surpass the prior implausibility of the conspiracy hypothesis - it has nothing to do with how hard Guede was caught.

Comment author: erica 19 December 2009 10:11:24AM 0 points [-]

Are you sure semen was found? I've read elsewhere this was a manual rape - still leaves DNA inside but not necc. semen.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 December 2009 06:06:16PM 0 points [-]

Nope, not sure offhand.

Comment author: wedrifid 19 December 2009 10:30:36AM 0 points [-]

I've read elsewhere this was a manual rape - still leaves DNA inside but not necc. semen.

Manual rape? I'm not familiar with that term and a meaning fitting those criteria (DNA but not semen) isn't obvious. I can only assume that 'manual' refers to, well, the last part of it. I wouldn't have expected that kind of rape if murder was going to be on the cards and I would also expect semen around somewhere, showing up with luminol. So perhaps something else is meant.

Comment author: anonym 19 December 2009 09:18:11PM 2 points [-]

One meaning of 'manual' is 'of or relating to the hands'. I'm guessing that's what's meant here.