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Jack comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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It looks to me like your confusion with these examples just stems from the fact that one event is in the present and the other in the future. Are you still confused if you make it P(Mom will be on the phone at 4 PM tomorrow)= 1/6. Or conversely, you make it P(I rolled a one on the fair die that is now beneath this cup) =1/6
In my experience, when people say something like that it's usually a matter of epistemic vs ontological perspective; and contrasting Laplace's Demon with real-world agents of bounded computational power resolves the difficulty. But that could be overkill