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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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I believe your hypothesis and decision are possibly correct, but if they are, you should expect your downvotes to often be corrected upwards again. If this doesn't happen, then you are wrong and shouldn't apply this heuristic.
Morendil doesn't say it's what actually happens, he merely says it should happen this way, and that you in particular should behave this way.
I thought of doing this after reading the article Composting Fruitless Debates and making a voted-up suggestion to downvote below threshold.
I'm using it as an excuse to overcome my general laziness with regards to voting, which has the typical pattern of one vote (up or down) per hundreds of comments read.
Edit: And due to remembering Eliezer's comments about moderation.