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ciphergoth comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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This seems very similar to the "reference class fallback" approach to confidence set out in point 2, but I prefer to explicitly refer to reference classes when setting out that approach, otherwise the exactly even odds you apply to massively positive and massively negative utility here seem to come rather conveniently out of a hat...
Fair enough. Actually, looking at my comment again, I think I paraphrased Tom_McCabe2 really badly, so thanks for replying and making me take another look! I'll try and edit my comment so it's a better paraphrase.