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wedrifid comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! - Less Wrong
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Often when people say "equally likely" they mean "I don't know enough to credibly estimate which one is greater, the probability distributions just overlap too much." (Yes, the 'bottom line' idea is more relevant here. It's a political minefield.)
But that's the point of my general argument: if you know that whites average a higher IQ score, but not necessarily by how much (say because you haven't investigated), and you also know that there is a cultural component for both whites and blacks, but you don't know how much it is for each, then you should simply say that it is more likely (but not certain) that whites have a higher genetic component.
I agree.