gwern comments on Open thread, February 15-28, 2013 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: David_Gerard 15 February 2013 11:17PM

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Comment author: gwern 25 February 2013 04:53:06PM 19 points [-]

The real irony is that Eliezer is now a fantastic example of the commitment/sunk cost effect which he has warned against repeatedly: having made an awful decision, and followed it up with further awful decisions over years (including at least 1 Discussion post deleted today and an expansion of topics banned on LW; incidentally, Eliezer, if you're reading this, please stop marking 'minor' edits on the wiki which are obviously not minor), he is trapped into continuing his disastrous course of conduct and escalating his interventions or justifications.

And now the basilisk and the censorship are an established part of the LW or MIRI histories which no critic could possibly miss, and which pattern-matches on religion. (Stross claims that it indicates that we're "Calvinist", which is pretty hilarious for anyone who hasn't drained the term of substantive meaning and turned it into a buzzword for people they don't like.) A pity.


While we're on the topic, I also blame Yvain to some extent; if he had taken my suggestion to add a basilisk question to the past LW survey, it would be much easier to go around to all the places discussing it and say something like 'this is solely Eliezer's problem; 98% disagree with censoring it'. But he didn't, and so just as I predicted, we have lost a powerful method of damage control.

It sucks being Cassandra.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 27 February 2013 11:33:45AM 4 points [-]

And now the basilisk and the censorship are an established part of the LW or MIRI histories which no critic could possibly miss, and which pattern-matches on religion.

That's already true without the basilisk and censorship. The similarities between transhumanism and religion have been remarked on for about as long as transhumanism has been a thing.

Comment author: gwern 27 February 2013 03:43:47PM 8 points [-]

An additional item to pattern-match onto religion, perhaps I should have said.

Comment author: Pablo_Stafforini 02 March 2013 06:51:19PM *  3 points [-]

I also blame Yvain to some extent; if he had taken my suggestion to add a basilisk question to the past LW survey, it would be much easier to go around to all the places discussing it and say something like 'this is solely Eliezer's problem; 98% disagree with censoring it'. But he didn't.

Also, note that this wasn't an unsolicited suggestion: in the post to which gwern's comment was posted, Yvan actually said that he was "willing to include any question you want in the Super Extra Bonus Questions section [of the survey], as long as it is not offensive, super-long-and-involved, or really dumb." And those are Yvain's italics.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 26 February 2013 05:43:32AM 3 points [-]

Gwern, I made a major Wiki edit followed by a minor edit. I wasn't aware that the latter would mask the former.

Comment author: gwern 26 February 2013 06:55:13PM 6 points [-]

When you're looking at consolidated diffs, it does. Double-checking, your last edit was marked minor, so I guess there was nothing you could've done there.

(It is good wiki editing practice to always make the minor or uncontroversial edits first, so that way your later edits can be looked at without the additional clutter of the minor edits or they can be reverted with minimal collateral damage, but that's not especially relevant in this case.)

Comment author: Mitchell_Porter 26 February 2013 02:51:25AM 6 points [-]

It sucks being Cassandra.

Let me consult my own crystal ball... Yes, the mists of time are parting. I see... I see... I see, a few years from now, a TED panel discussion on "Applied Theology", chaired by Vernor Vinge, in which Eliezer, Roko, and Will Newsome discuss the pros and cons of life in an acausal multiverse of feuding superintelligences.

The spirits have spoken!

Comment author: [deleted] 26 February 2013 05:28:26PM 1 point [-]

I'm looking forward to that.

Comment author: Kevin 26 February 2013 02:16:43AM 1 point [-]

At this point it is this annoying, toxic meta discussion that is the problem.

Comment author: [deleted] 26 February 2013 02:08:33PM *  1 point [-]

I also blame Yvain to some extent; if he had taken my suggestion to add a basilisk question to the past LW survey,

Then EY would have freaked the hell out, and I don't know what the consequences of that would be but I don't think they would be good. Also, I think the basilisk question would have had lots of mutual information with the troll toll question anyway:

EDIT: I guess I was wrong.

Submitting...

Comment author: gwern 26 February 2013 06:48:55PM *  8 points [-]

It's too late. This poll is in the wrong place (attracting only those interested in it), will get too few responses (certainly not >1000), and is now obviously in reaction to much more major coverage than before so the responses are contaminated.

The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit,
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.

Comment author: [deleted] 27 February 2013 12:34:34PM 1 point [-]

Actually, I was hoping to find some strong correlation between support for the troll toll and support for the basilisk censorship so that I could use the number of people who would have supported the censorship from the answers to the toll question in the survey. But it turns out that the fraction of censorship supporters is about 30% both among toll supporters and among toll opposers. (But the respondents to my poll are unlikely to be an unbiased sample of all LWers.)

Comment author: wedrifid 26 February 2013 03:02:55PM 3 points [-]

Then EY would have freaked the hell out, and I don't know what the consequences of that would be but I don't think they would be good. Also, I think the basilisk question would have had lots of mutual information with the troll toll question anyway:

The 'troll toll' question misses most of the significant issue (as far as I'm concerned). I support the troll toll but have nothing but contempt for Eliezer's behavior, comments, reasoning and signalling while implementing the troll toll. And in my judgement most of the mutual information with the censorship or Roko's Basilisk is about those issues (things like overconfidence, and various biases of the kind Gwern describes) is to do with the judgement of competence based on that behavior rather than the technical change to the lesswrong software.

Comment author: shminux 25 February 2013 05:21:38PM *  0 points [-]

Just to be charitable to Eliezer, let me remind you of this quote. For example, can you conceive of a reason (not necessarily the officially stated one) that the actual basilisk discussion ought to be suppressed, even at the cost of the damage done to LW credibility (such as it is) by an offsite discussion of such suppression?

Stross claims that it indicates that we're "Calvinist"

I thought this is more akin to Scientology, where any mention of Xenu to the uninitiated ought to be suppressed.

It sucks being Cassandra.

Sure does. Then again, it probably sucks more being Laocoön.

Comment author: Plasmon 25 February 2013 06:12:12PM 10 points [-]

can you conceive of a reason (not necessarily the officially stated one) that the actual basilisk discussion ought to be suppressed, even at the cost of the damage done to LW credibility (such as it is) by an offsite discussion of such suppression?

The basilisk is harmless. Eliezer knows this. The streisand effect was the intended consequence of the censor. The hope is that people who become aware of the basilisk will increase their priors for the existence of real information hazards, and will in the future be less likely to read anything marked as such. It's all a clever memetic inoculation program!

disclaimer : I don't actually believe this.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 27 February 2013 04:29:52AM 9 points [-]

Another possibility: Eliezer doesn't object to the meme that anyone who doesn't donate to SIAI/MIRI will spend eternity in hell being spread in a deniable way.

Comment author: shminux 27 February 2013 04:36:07AM *  4 points [-]

Why stop there? In fact, Roko was one of Eliezer's many socks puppets. It's your basic Ender's Game stuff.

Comment author: [deleted] 05 March 2013 12:40:08PM *  3 points [-]

We are actually all Eliezer's sock puppets. Most of us unfortunately are straw men.

Comment author: gwern 05 March 2013 04:20:54PM *  5 points [-]

We are the hollow men / we are the stuffed men / Leaning together / Headpiece filled with straw. Alas! / Our dried comments when / we discuss together / Are quiet and meaningless / As median-cited papers / or reports of supplements / on the Internet.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 27 February 2013 09:15:05AM 2 points [-]

Another possibility: Eliezer does not want the meme to be associated with LW. Because, even if it was written by someone else, most people are predictably likely to read it and remember: "This is an idea I read on LW, so this must be what they believe."

Comment author: wedrifid 27 February 2013 05:30:13AM *  4 points [-]

The hope is that people who become aware of the basilisk will increase their priors for the existence of real information hazards, and will in the future be less likely to read anything marked as such. It's all a clever memetic inoculation program!

It's certainly an inoculation for information hazards. Or at least against believing information hazard warnings.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 26 February 2013 06:51:09AM *  6 points [-]

Alternatively, the people dismissing the idea out of hand are not taking it seriously and thus not triggering the information hazard.

Also the censorship of the basilisk was by no means the most troubling part of the Roko incident, and as long as people focus on that they're not focusing on the more disturbing issues.

Edit: The most troubling part were some comments, also deleted, indicating just how fanatically loyal some of Eliezer's followers are.

Comment author: Locaha 25 February 2013 06:21:05PM 0 points [-]

disclaimer : I don't actually believe this.

Really? Or do you just want us to believe that you don't believe this???

Comment author: gwern 25 February 2013 05:52:14PM 13 points [-]

Just to be charitable to Eliezer, let me remind you of this quote. For example, can you conceive of a reason (not necessarily the officially stated one) that the actual basilisk discussion ought to be suppressed, even at the cost of the damage done to LW credibility (such as it is) by an offsite discussion of such suppression?

No. I have watched Eliezer make this unforced error now for years, sliding into an obvious and common failure mode, with mounting evidence that censorship is, was, and will be a bad idea, and I have still not seen any remotely plausible explanation for why it's worthwhile.

Just to take this most recent Stross post: he has similar traffic to me as far as I can tell, which means that since I get ~4000 unique visitors a day, he gets as many and often many more. A good chunk will be to his latest blog post, and it will go on being visited for years on end. If it hits the front page of Hacker News as more than a few of his blog posts do, it will quickly spike to 20k+ uniques in just a day or two. (In this case, it didn't.) So we are talking, over the next year, easily 100,000 people being exposed to this presentation of the basilisk (just need average 274 uniques a day). 100k people being exposed to something which will strike them as patent nonsense, from a trusted source like Stross.

So maybe there used to be some sort of justification behind the sunk costs and obtinacy and courting of the Streisand effect. Does this justification also justify trashing LW/MIRI's reputation among literally hundreds of thousands of people?

You may have a witty quote, which is swell, but I'm afraid it doesn't help me see what justification there could be.

Sure does. Then again, it probably sucks more being Laocoön.

Laocoön died quickly and relatively cleanly by serpent; Cassandra saw all her predictions (not just one) come true, was raped, abducted, kept as a concubine, and then murdered.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 27 February 2013 01:39:37PM *  0 points [-]

from a trusted source like Stross

I wouldn't call him that, and not because I have any doubt about his trustworthiness. It's the other word, "source", that I wouldn't apply. He's a professional SF author. His business is to entertain with ideas, and his blog is part of that. I wouldn't go there in search of serious analysis of anything, any more than I would look for that on RationalWiki. Both the article in question and the comments on it are pretty much on a par with RationalWiki's approach. In fact (ungrounded speculation alert), I have to wonder how many of the commenters there are RW regulars, there to fan the flame.

Comment author: gwern 27 February 2013 03:53:25PM 9 points [-]

Stross is widely read, cited, and quoted approvingly, on his blog and off (eg. Hacker News). He is a trusted source for many geeks.

Comment author: metatroll 28 February 2013 12:25:18PM 4 points [-]

RationalWiki's new coat-of-arms is a troll riding a basilisk.

Comment author: Locaha 25 February 2013 05:37:52PM *  -2 points [-]

for example, can you conceive of a reason (not necessarily the officially stated one) that the actual basilisk discussion ought to be suppressed, even at the cost of the damage done to LW credibility (such as it is) by an offsite discussion of such suppression?

What if he CAN'T conceive a reason? Can you conceive a possibility that it might be for other reason than Gwern being less intelligent then EY? For example, Gwern might be more intelligent than EY.

Comment author: wedrifid 26 February 2013 03:06:51PM 0 points [-]

Discussion post deleted today and an expansion of topics banned on LW

Did you happen to catch the deleted post? Was there any interesting reasoning contained therein? If so, who was the author and did they keep a backup that they would be willing to email me? (If they did not keep a backup... that was overwhelmingly shortsighted unless they are completely unfamiliar with the social context!)

Comment author: Larks 26 February 2013 04:04:11PM 1 point [-]

I saw it. I contained just a link and the a line asking for "thoughts" or words to that effect. Maybe there was a quote - certainly nothing new or origional.

Comment author: wedrifid 26 February 2013 04:41:47PM 0 points [-]

I saw it. I contained just a link and the a line asking for "thoughts" or words to that effect. Maybe there was a quote - certainly nothing new or origional.

Thanks. I've been sent links to all the recently deleted content and can confirm that nothing groundbreaking was lost.