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Zaq10y330

Did the survey, except digit ratio due to lack of precision measuring devices.

As for feedback, I had some trouble interpreting a few of the questions. There were some times when you defined terms like human biodiversity, and I agreed with some of the claims in the definition but not others, but since I had no real way to weight the claims by importance it was difficult for me to turn my conclusions into a single confidence measurement. I also had no idea weather the best-selling computer game question was supposed to account for inflation or general growth of the videogame market, nor whether we were measuring in terms of copies sold or revenue earned or something else entirely, nor whether console games or games that "sell" for 0$ counted. I ended up copping out by listing a game that is technically included in a bit of software I knew sold very well for its time (and not for free), but the software was not sold as a computer game.

Also, a weird thing happened with the calibration questions When I was very unsure which of a large number of possible answers was correct, and especially if I wasn't even sure how many possible answers there were, I found myself wanting to write an answer that was obviously impossible (like writing "Mars" for Obama's birth state) and putting a 0 for the calibration. I didn't actually do this, but it sure was tempting.

See in context

116 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey

by Scott Alexander

26th Oct 2014

2 min read

728

116

It's that time of year again.

If you are reading this post and self-identify as a LWer, then you are the target population for the Less Wrong Census/Survey. Please take it. Doesn't matter if you don't post much. Doesn't matter if you're a lurker. Take the survey.

This year's census contains a "main survey" that should take about ten or fifteen minutes, as well as a bunch of "extra credit questions". You may do the extra credit questions if you want. You may skip all the extra credit questions if you want. They're pretty long and not all of them are very interesting. But it is very important that you not put off doing the survey or not do the survey at all because you're intimidated by the extra credit questions.

It also contains a chance at winning a MONETARY REWARD at the bottom. You do not need to fill in all the extra credit questions to get the MONETARY REWARD, just make an honest stab at as much of the survey as you can.

Please make things easier for my computer and by extension me by reading all the instructions and by answering any text questions in the simplest and most obvious possible way. For example, if it asks you "What language do you speak?" please answer "English" instead of "I speak English" or "It's English" or "English since I live in Canada" or "English (US)" or anything else. This will help me sort responses quickly and easily. Likewise, if a question asks for a number, please answer with a number such as "4", rather than "four".

The planned closing date for the survey is Friday, November 14. Instead of putting the survey off and then forgetting to do it, why not fill it out right now?

Okay! Enough preliminaries! Time to take the...

***

[EDIT: SURVEY CLOSED, DO NOT TAKE!]

***

Thanks to everyone who suggested questions and ideas for the 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey. I regret I was unable to take all of your suggestions into account, because of some limitations in Google Docs, concern about survey length, and contradictions/duplications among suggestions. The current survey is a mess and requires serious shortening and possibly a hard and fast rule that it will never get longer than it is right now.

By ancient tradition, if you take the survey you may comment saying you have done so here, and people will upvote you and you will get karma.

Surveys

Personal Blog

116

Mentioned in

45Lesswrong 2016 Survey

27What's your favorite LessWrong post?

9Non-standard politics

2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey

59DeterminateJacobian

53radical_negative_one

38FullMeta_Rationalist

35SaxophonesAndViolets

26Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg)

2FullMeta_Rationalist

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[-]gwern10y1120

Done. Too bad the basilisk question wasn't on it; I hope that will one day be possible.

5private_messaging10y

There is no disagreement that only a small percentage of LWers believe in it (just as there's no disagreement that only a small % of scientologists are even aware of the more arcane aspects of their "religion"). But yeah if you had a survey the actual % may be worth listing on RW.

9gwern10y

The coverage of the basilisk I've seen in the media does not include that, IIRC. Given the widespread mockery of those aspects & their failure to keep it under wraps, I'm not sure how ignorant the rank and file these days really are.

3private_messaging10y

But then, media is not really focussing on the peripheral aspects of the movement. They're interested in what's being radiated from the core, that's why it is basilisk in the spotlight and not some random insane guy pondering the efficacy of shooting people rather than blowing them up, even though the latter is in principle more outrageous. There's just so many stupid details besides the big concepts like thetans...

1ChristianKl10y

The census provides a lot of ways to define core and most of them likely would give the answer that the majority of the LW core think differently than Eliezer about the basilisk.

3private_messaging10y

Media is not writing about you. Or LW. It is writing about that FAI thing for which LW is just an online board that is in and of itself unremarkable.

0ChristianKl10y

The basilisk isn't a very central idea of that FAI thing. If you define remarkability the way Seth Godin does, LW might be remarkable in this case. I don't know whether FAI is central enough that a journalist get's tasked to do a story about FAI and then finds LW and writes a story about the basilisk. It might very well have been that the journalist heard about LW and then found that it makes a good publishable story. Lastly the article that could be said to be written about me because they write directly about my person are in the context of QS and not FAI.

3Jiro10y

What counts as a central idea? Does it have to be believed by a majority of the rank and file? Or is it sufficient that it is believed by the leader?

0ChristianKl10y

Central ideas are those that matter for the discourse about the idea. In academia that means ideas in academic papers. Ideas that are important enough that they get space in textbooks. Given low little academic papers MIRI publishes there might be central ideas that are unpublished and still important but I don't think the basilisk is among them by any reasonable count..

7Jiro10y

The most important tenet of the Catholic Church is probably something like "Jesus died for our sins". The tenets of the Catholic Church that critics pay the most attention to are their beliefs on abortion, contraceptives, homosexuality, etc. even though they are widely ignored by Catholics and certainly less central than "Jesus died for our sins". Why? Because even though the church would describe them as less important, they are the ones that get non-churchmembers the most worried. And they are consequences of the church's core beliefs, even if not (by church standards) the most important ones. And it's completely legitimate to criticize the church for its stand on abortion, and not criticize it for the matters that the church considers more important. The basilisk is every bit as central to criticsm of LW as abortion is to criticism of Catholicism, even if it's not central to the church and most LWers don't believe it. Most Catholics are fine with abortion too.

0TobyBartels10y

The Catholic Church spends a great deal of effort trying to influence the secular politics of abortion, with effects on the lives of non-Catholics. This is why non-Catholics criticize it. Less Wrong spends no time at all trying to influence the world at large with respect to Roko's basilisk. It is an amusing episode, but not likely to cause any problems for anybody.

2Jiro10y

Use the Galileo analogy then. The Pope's belief that Galileo, while right on the facts, shouldn't have challenged the church has pretty much no influence on anyone's lives, but still gets criticism. Also, LW has as its goal influencing the world about rationality and AI, and it seems that LW or at least Eliezer is unable to disentangle the Basilisk from tthe ideas it does want to spread. (Again, Eliezer doesn't believe in the Basilisk exactly as stated, but he does believe Basilisk-like ideas could be dangerous.)

0ChristianKl10y

If you ask a catholic priest whether the position of the church on abortion is important for him, I think he will say "yes". I you count official speeches and writing by popes I also think that abortion will come up from time to time. We are not talking about criticism of LW. LW as it stands is not important enough in society as a whole to warrant criticism from journalism. We are talking about centrality to FAI under the assumption that it's a topic that journalists want to write about. maybe in the background of Transcendence that raised the topic a bit in public awareness.

2Jiro10y

It's not an exact analogy, but it's close because it's much more important to outsiders than to insiders. The basilisk isn't directly a LW idea. but the basilisk follows from LW-style ideas and is close enough that Eliezer couldn't just say "nothing like the basilisk could possibly work". A closer analogy may be more like, oh, geocentricism. The church does not believe that geocentricism is true any more than LW believes in the basilisk. On the other hand, the man who became the current Pope has pretty much said that the church was right in its treatment of Galileo even if the church was wrong about geocentricism itself. And you still see this used to criticize the church. And I doubt that many priests would think that the way the church treated Galileo is very important compared to either abortion or Jesus dying for our sins.

1private_messaging10y

Well, the point is, almost nobody cares about LW and where LW fits in. Few people have some ideas that are interesting due to the sheer ridiculousness, rest of the board is of no interest.

0ChristianKl10y

If you are dealing with media and the write partly about you, it's quite useful to understand what they do care about in more detail.

4Jiro10y

Define "believe in the basilisk". Even Eliezer doesn't believe in the basilisk exactly as stated. But he does believe that basilisk-like ideas could be dangerous for basilisk-like reasons.

6private_messaging10y

There's no such thing as basilisk exactly as stated, because it has never been stated exactly.

3marchdown10y

It would have been a nice insurance agains possible future PR shitstorms. Was that your primary reason for suggesting it?

0gwern10y

Yes.

0[anonymous]10y

Geez, this might be the only issue so contentious that it can attract significant downvotes to a "did the survey" comment. Ironic that an alleged literal-mindkiller would become such a figurative-mindkiller.

[-]Vaniver10y1070

Did the survey!

[-]palladias10y930

I took the survey. Out of curiosity (too late to change now) what should I have answered if I'm not my father's first child, but I'm the first child he had with my mom? (There are kids from my dad's first marriage, but I didn't grow up with them).

I went with "no older siblings" since I assumed this was a question about socialization (or maybe even about uterine environment) but not siring. But I'd like to know for next year.

[-]NancyLebovitz10y290

This should be a warning to us all about how hard it is to frame a good queston.

[-]randallsquared10y190

I would also like to know for next year. I have four older siblings on my father's side, and two on my mother's, and only spent any home time with one (from my mother's side). So, I answered 6 for older, but depending on whether this was a socialization or uterine environment question, the best answer might have been either 1 or 2 for older.

0cameroncowan10y

I had the same situation. I was the oldest child my father had with my mom although I have siblings that are older that I didn't grow up with. I'm the only child of my step-father (they had no natural children) so I grew up as an old child and that is what I went with.

[-]Vulture10y930

Taken! The way you were being so apologetic about the length, I thought it would be much more grueling - I found it quick and fun! :)

[-]Fluttershy10y930

I completed the survey, huzzah!

[-]Sigmaleph10y910

Did the survey. Also, now I know my digit ratio!

[-]plex10y910

Filled in, but did not do digit lengths because I have no access to a printer or scanner in the near future.

[-]CBHacking10y110

Completed the survey (arguably the first thing I've actually contributed to LW, though I've discussed it at some length offline; this is my first comment ever). I have some degree of access to a scanner but not conveniently (same goes for a ruler actually; at best I may have a measuring tape somewhere I could find in under an hour's search). I filled out all the rest, aside from the N/A questions. Some of my answers have very low confidence (calibration percentage?), though.

A tip for those who don't have the equipment to perform the actual test: if you can verify that the lengths of the fingers on your left and right hands are equal (align the crease in the skin at the bases of the same finger on each hand, palm-to-palm), you can use the same technique to compare the D2:D4 lengths (one hand against the other). My fingers are the same length regardless of which hand (to the limit of my ability to measure without mechanical aid), and my D2:D4 ratio is somewhere in the range 1.00 < D2:D4 < 1.05, probably under 1.02 but definitely in excess of 1.00. As a cisgendered male, I guess I'm weird?

Oh, and some feedback: Part Four's "Moral Views" section could have used links (L... (read more)

5Stuart_Armstrong10y

You should post this as a comment to the original post, not as as a reply to another comment! ;-)

0CBHacking10y

Thanks! Yeah, I did add a top-level comment, with a link to this one, but I realize that was sort of the backward way to do it.

[-]SilentCal10y860

Done.

I'm a bit confused about the accuracy of my BSRI because my true answer was frequently 'only towards my SO', such that my score would be drastically different were I single.

[-]A1987dM10y110

I'm a bit confused about the accuracy of my BSRI because my true answer was frequently 'only towards my SO',

Same here. And in some cases it was ‘except towards my parents’ or ‘only when I'm very tired’. I still tried to take some kind of weighed average.

4marchdown10y

This is weird. I haven't noticed that until you've pointed it out, but I believe that my masculinity score was only a little lower than all the benchmarks and not extremely low only because I've considered how my partner would gauge BSRI questions. They seem to push me towards expressing masculine traits. Isn't it interesting that a sex-role inventory doesn't make allowances for situations priming different sex roles in people?

0b_sen10y

My true answers were also frequently "highly situation-dependent [in assorted ways]." I tried to give a weighted average too, but that weighted average would change significantly with the balance of situational contexts I experience.

[-]ahbwramc10y860

Survey complete! I'd have answered the digit ratio question, but I don't have a ruler of all things at home. Ooh, now to go check my answers for the calibration questions.

[-]kilobug10y850

Took the survey.

And yeah you should warn about the material needed for the digit ratio question in advance, so people don't start the survey if they aren't in the right conditions for it.

[-]Prismattic10y850

I'm done, but my ruler isn't good enough that I'm super confident in my digit ratios; I would have preferred one less significant digit (no pun intended, but I'll take it anyway).

[-]Nectanebo10y850

Took the survey. I always feel like I did the last one only recently.

[-]DataPacRat10y830

Done - and mildly disappointed that we won't be measuring the prevalence of transponyism this year.

Does this post appear on LW's Main or Discussion pages for anyone else? I only found it via an offsite reference. Edit: Nevermind, I had my Main set to 'Promoted' instead of 'New'.

1timujin10y

Has that been actually suggested?

3Vaniver10y

Yes, by the author of the grandparent.

[-]Sniffnoy10y820

Took the survey.

[-]luminosity10y820

Taken the survey (would have loved to do digit ratio, but too difficult to get access to the equipment needed).

[-]TobyBartels10y810

I did the survey. (Comments on specific aspects appear as replies.)

[-]TobyBartels10y160

It's time to decouple sexual orientation from gender identity! If my gender is neither male nor female, but I'm primarily attracted to one of those, then I'm neither homosexual nor heterosexual (nor bisexual nor asexual). But neither am I some nebulous other; if only I had a binary gender identity, then suddenly I would have a binary sexual orientation too! Of course, some people identify specifically as homosexual or heterosexual (and some people even have prima-facie contradictory identifications such as both male and lesbian), and you could ask about that if you like, but you should also ask the more fundamental question of which genders one is attracted to.

9CBHacking10y

... and that doesn't even get into the sexual-vs.-romantic issue. My girlfriend is cis and bisexual, but only andro-romantic (hetero). She identifies as bi, for purposes of broad categorization such as surveys like this, but has no interest in dating other women even though she is sexually attracted to them. In other words, yes, the better way to ask such a question would be something along the lines of "which gender(s) are you romantically attracted to?" and "which gender(s) are you sexually attracted to?" as different questions.

-4Azathoth12310y

This strikes me as suspiciously like "she'd straight but identifies as bi because it's fashionable".

[-]CBHacking10y140

Out of curiosity, if I'd avoided mentioning how she self-identifies and had instead told you that "she has had sex with other women before and has asked me if it's OK if she sleeps with other women while we're dating (or brings them home for a threesome)... but has never shown or claimed any interest in actually dating another woman" (all of which is, incidentally, true), what would your response have been? Framed that way, one could assume that she's actually bi or even lesbian and the only reason she's dating me instead of one of those girls is because she wants to avoid the social or family stigma of homosexuality.

Or you could take me at my word. It's not like you're in any position to verify one way or the other, where she in particular is concerned, unless you're one of the handful of people who actually know who I am speaking of and know her preferences at least as well as I do.

It also doesn't matter for the point I raised (about how some people have different targets for sexual and romantic attraction) unless you intended to imply that not only is she personally actually neatly classifiable under the existing system but so is everybody else who would claim otherwis... (read more)

9gjm10y

What would you expect it to look like if in fact she found both men and woman sexually attractive but only men romantically attractive, as she claims?

6Gunnar_Zarncke10y

See also the OKCupid Trends post about The Big Lies People Tell In Online Dating.

4CBHacking10y

That's a valid point. On the other hand, as a dating site, OKC messaging is probably going to be skewed towards the gender that one is interested in pursuing a relationship with (though maybe that's just the way I use it; as soon as I typed it I felt sure there were plenty of people just looking to hook up). When the topic is sexual orientation vs. romantic orientation, I'm not sure that OKC is the best source of data. I can't deny the specific claim that a large proportion of ostensibly bi people appear to not be both bisexual and biromantic.

8TobyBartels10y

The questions Family Religion and Religious Background seem to parallel the questions Religious Views and Religious Denomination, but they are phrased differently. The first is my family when I was growing up, while the second is simply my family. So as it happened, I was not thinking of the same families when answering them! Perhaps I should have paid more attention the name of the question Religious Background, which I really only noticed just now when I wanted to identify it for this comment. You did not in fact get information about my religious background in my answer to that question; you got information about the religious background of my spouse of less than 2 years (and my stepchild).

8TobyBartels10y

So I filled out the whole survey, and then I got to the part about the digit ratio, and I thought, OK, I'll do this! But I can't do it now (no photocopier at home, can't trust a measurement to 3 digits if I'm not doing it the same way as others). And I can't keep my answers up until I can do it (no battery in computer, must be turned off to transport, Lazarus plug-in has been problematic). So I put in a public and private key but no data. I will gladly supply the data to you tomorrow, using those keys to identify my survey.

7TobyBartels10y

Some countries hold elections but not major national ones; and sometimes a country has elections, but most people in them still can't vote. (Examples are Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, respectively.)

6TobyBartels10y

I'd be much more comfortable answering the probability sections if I knew what epsilon is. I usually say 0% when the value is less than 0.5% and 100% when the value is greater than 99.5%, rounding to the nearest whole percentage, on the grounds that the whole point of using percentages is to avoid explicit fractions (common or decimal). But then you ruin this by explicitly mentioning 0.5% and 99.99% as possible answers. If you had put a hard limit on the number of digits allowed, then I could have used that. In the end, since I saw no consistent guidance, I fell back on my usual practice. The result is that I had a lot of 0s and 100s; hopefully that won't mess up your algorithms. ETA: It is probably relevant here that I am a naturally lazy person.

4Sarunas10y

I think it might have been better to ask people to estimate what are the odds that a given statement is true. If a probability of a statement is close to zero or close to one, it gives us better precision without having to worry about digits after the decimal point (however, if a probability is close to one half, it is probably better to ask for a probability). Although it is easy to convert odds to probabilities, how many people in this survey actually took the mental effort to remind themselves to calculate the odds first and only then to express them as probabilities? I might be wrong, but I guess that only a minority. An idea for the next year survey - it might be interesting to compare the answers of two groups, one of which would be asked to estimate probabilities, the other one to estimate the odds.

2Elund10y

Are you using "odds" to refer to percentages and "probabilities" to refer to fractions? I don't think there is actually any difference in meaning between the two terms.

2TobyBartels10y

Colloquial language doesn't make this distinction, but by technical convention, they are different. Specifically, ‘odds’ refers to expressions like ‘5 to 3 against’; numerically, that's the fraction 5/3, or rather (because of the ‘against’) its reciprocal, 3/5. Thus odds run from 0 (impossible) to infinity (certain), with odds of 1 being perfectly balanced between Yes and No. In contrast, probabilities run only from 0 to 1. An event with odds of 5 to 3 against, or equivalently odds of 3/5, has a probability of 3/(3+5) = 3/8. So the numbers are different. The conversion formulas are O = P/(1 − P) and P = O/(1 + O). Then there are log-odds; this is log₂ O bits. (You can also use other bases than 2 and correspondingly other units than bits.) Now 0 indicates perfect balance between Yes and No; a positive number means more likely Yes than No, and a negative number means less likely Yes than No. Log-odds run from negative infinity (impossible) to infinity (certain).

2Elund10y

Oh right, I forgot about that definition. The main probability conversions that I was aware of involved converting between fractions and percentages, sometimes expressed instead as probabilities between 0 and 1. Theoretically, it makes sense that odds can also be converted to or from probabilities, now that I think about it. Thanks for your explanation.

-5VAuroch10y

1TobyBartels10y

Yes, odds are good (and log-odds are even better), but people are bad at both dealing with very large absolute values and dealing with very fine precisions. I think that the survey is correct to put in a cut-off (whether an ϵ for probabilities, an N for log-odds, or one of each for odds); it should just tell us where. (Edit: put in stuff about log-odds properly.)

3NancyLebovitz10y

Epsilon is a minuscule amount. It's vanishingly small, but it's still there.

5TobyBartels10y

Yes, but which minuscule amount? To be more specific: If ϵ ≥ 5 × 10⁻ⁿ (which it must be for some n, if it is a positive real number), then I only need to figure out my probability to n + 1 digits. Upon doing so, if it's all 0s, then my probability is no more than ϵ, so I can enter 0. Otherwise, I should enter something larger. (And a similar thing holds on the other end.) Specifying ϵ serves the practical purpose of telling us how much work to put into estimating our probabilities. Since I had no guideline for that, I chose to default to ϵ = 1/2 (in percentage points), rather than try to additionally work out how small ϵ was supposed to be. If, instead of bringing up ϵ, the survey had instructed us to use as many decimals as we need to avoid ever answering either 0 or 100, then I probably would have done more work. (There are reasons why this is bad, since the results will be increasingly unreliable, but still it could have said that.) But since I knew that at some point my work would be ignored, I didn't do any. (Edits: minor grammar and precise phrasing of inequalities.)

1CBHacking10y

I took epsilon to be simply 0.5, on the basis of "the survey can take decimals but I'm going to use whole numbers as suggested, so 0 means I rounded down anything less than 0.5". This is imprecise but gives me greater confidence in my answers, and (as you say), I have some tendency towards laziness.

0TobyBartels10y

Yes, that's what I did too (0.5%).

0Elund10y

I don't think it will mess up the algorithms. My guess is that most people probably rounded most calibration answers to the tens place due to lack of enough confidence to be more precise, but since people are giving different values, the average across all respondents is unlikely to fall on an increment of ten, and should be a reasonably accurate measure of the respondents' collective assigned probability for a question.

0TobyBartels10y

It could mess them up, because in theory a single wrong answer with 100% confidence renders the entire series infinitely poorly calibrated. The survey says that this won't be done, that 100% will be treated as something slightly less than that. But how much less could depend on assumptions that the survey-makers made about how often people would answer this way, and maybe I did it too much. I doubt it, since I'm pretty sure that they know enough about these pitfalls to avoid them. But I felt that I answered 0 and 100 quite a lot, so I thought that some warning was in order.

0Vulture10y

Even though percentages are typically used for cases where precision is less important, I'd say that in this context it would be better to err on the side of precision.

5TobyBartels10y

I don't fit in well with any of the 5 answers to the Political question, and there was no Other, but skipping it also didn't seem right. (Several questions have explicit cases when they are to be skipped, but this was not one of them.) I eventually picked 1 of the 2 that seemed less wrong than the other 3; I would have preferred to pick some sort of non-moderated mixture of those 2. (Actually, that is how I usually describe my politics when asked for a response in the form of a political party: somewhere between the ___ Party and the ___ Party, only more extreme.) The Complex Affiliation was not a problem. (Actually, I was still torn between 2 answers, but this time I would have been happy with either of them!)

4TobyBartels10y

My public key is the same as my user name. Should it have been anonymous? (My private key was randomized and only identifies me if you know what format I use for general-purpose random strings.)

4Vaniver10y

Assuming Yvain does the same thing as last year, both the public and private key will be released as part of the survey dataset if you checked the 'release my survey data' box.

7dthunt10y

Faith in Humanity moment: LW will not submit garbage poll responses using other LW-users as public keys.

2jdgalt10y

If that's true I wish I'd known it before choosing keys.

0TobyBartels10y

The private key too!? Fortunately I used a one-time key for that. The public key is OK. I made sure that I was comfortable with people linking my answers to me before I used it. But then I thought that maybe I wasn't supposed to.

3TobyBartels10y

I hope that you'll publish the answers to the calibration questions, after the survey closes, of course.

[-]JayDugger10y810

I finished the survey.

[-]Ixiel10y800

Taken! Thanks as always for running it

[-]rejuvyesh10y770

Except for the digit lengths, survey taken!

[-]Ronak10y750

I took it. If it's anything like last year, officially 2/5 of my karma will be from surveys.

[-][anonymous]10y750

Took the survey. My first one. Thanks for putting it together Yvain/Dan.

[-]AlanCrowe10y740

I took the survey. Started on the BSRI but abandoned it because I found the process of giving vague answers to vague questions distressing.

[-]goatherd10y730

I'm missing something here, I filled in the public and private and keys, but saw no game theory problem. Are we being given equal chances of the monetary reward?

Anyway, fun survey.

4Vulture10y

Presumably. The idea is to incentivize participation in the more difficult digit-ratio section. (Although, of course, that does create a game-theory problem...)

[-]dspeyer10y730

Done.

Didn't have a scanner, so I traced my hand on a piece of paper with a pencil and measured that. Not sure I got enough accuracy to take seriously. Oh, well.

6therufs10y

Given the ambiguity of the directions, you're probably as close as anyone else.

1atorm10y

I'm confident you didn't.

[-]gjm10y720

About two hours ago, I submitted an incomplete census return -- it looks as if some keystroke produces an immediate submission, at least on my browser. I'll be submitting a complete one later today. Yvain, if you want to suppress the incomplete one and need help in identifying it then I can help. I was partway through the calibration questions when I accidentally submitted.

(I see TrE had the same problem.)

[EDITED to add: Complete return now submitted.]

[-]lalaithion10y710

Did it! I'm shocked that my digit ratio is so high. Like, I figured that it was pretty high, being a bisexual genderfluid "man" (assigned at birth, that is), but I didn't expect it to be greater than 1. Also, it was much shorter than I expected.

[-]Turgurth10y700

Taken. Wasn't bothered by the length -- could be even longer next time.

[-]ialdabaoth10y700

I exist in a quantifiable way! (I took the survey)

[-]Sarunas10y700

Done.

I think it is somewhat unrealistic to expect individual digit ratios to be accurate to three significant figures (although I understand that two significant figures might be too crude a measure to show effects of smaller size). One can hope that the errors are symmetric and it doesn't matter.

3dthunt10y

I don't think it's going to matter very much. 3 digits after the dot, with the understanding that the third digit is probably not very good, but the second probably is pretty good.

[-]Sarunas10y110

Suppose the actual length of a person's index finger is 80.5 mm and the actual length of his/her ring finger is 83.5 mm. Then the 2D:4D ratio is 0.964. A measurement error of 0.5 mm is very easy to make, e.g. due to inaccuracy of a photocopier, inaccuracy of a ruler, inexactness of where a finger joins the hand (and even if it wasn't a vague concept it would still be a problem to pinpoint the precise location of it with a great accuracy) and even differences in muscle tension in fingers at the particular moment of placing a hand in a photocopier. If a person measures his/her index finger as being 80 mm long (0.5 mm shorter) and her/his ring finger as being 84 mm long (0.5 mm longer), then they would obtain 2D:4D ratio of 0.952. Whereas if the length of the index finger is measured to be 81 mm, and the length of the ring finger is 83 mm, then 2D:4D ratio is 0.976. Therefore, the first digit after the decimal point does not vary that much (in the vast majority of all cases it is 9), the third one is basically noise, and even the second one is not that reliable (in an individual case). However, that might still be enough to notice some interesting correlations and if the errors are symmetric it might not even matter that much when all data will be aggregated.

3Gunnar_Zarncke10y

For me its not even the second digit. Even left and right hand differ significantly. Copire doesn't make things really better (OK, the copier quality was low, much too dark).

0Elund10y

Agreed. Most rulers don't give measurements more precise than millimeters.

0Alsadius10y

This is why a scanner might make sense. Even 300 DPI is less than 0.1mm resolution, so just scan it in and measure with an electronic ruler in your image-editing software of choice.

8Richard_Kennaway10y

There's no point in measuring something more precisely than the thing itself exists. Which pixel "is" the base of the finger? Has anyone tried repeating the measurement, following the same procedure each time? Do this on occasions at least a day apart, to avoid unconsciously imitating the second time exactly what you did the first time. I have. Reproducibility was no better than 1mm, and pretty much independent between fingers. You could also try under different conditions, e.g. when your hands are cold and when they're warm, when you've just been exerting them heavily and when you haven't, etc. I doubt that digit ratio exists as an entity to better than 1 or 2% accuracy.

0Alsadius10y

I suspect it does, but you need to be a lot more precise with your instructions than Yvain was in this case.

[-]Baisius10y700

Completed. Very excited to see the digit ratio data.

[-]MrMind10y690

I did the survey in all its parts, and upvoted every top level comment to promote LW's census partecipation.

It was fun and not particularly long, although I miss the 'global prisoner dilemma' of the last survey.

[-]Anders_H10y690

I completed the survey (and learned surprising things about my digit ratio)

[-][anonymous]10y680

I took the survey! This is my third survey.

[-]TheOtherDave10y680

Answered. WRT Type of Global Catastrophic Risk, I answered conditioned on greater than 90% of humanity being wiped out before 2100, which I assume is what you meant. If it wasn't, well, I ruined everything, then.

4jdgalt10y

I wondered about that too, but for me "wiping out civilization" includes the possibility that some disaster leaves half of humanity alive, but smashes all our tech, knocking us back to the stone age. Intelligence forbid!

[-]Ben Pace10y680

Answered all I could except the digit one because of no access to scanner. Looking forward to the results!

[-]Calien10y670

In-group fuzzes acquired, for science!

[-]Markas10y670

Completed!

[-]ChristianKl10y660

I took it. A bit sad that it's shorter than the last one.

6roystgnr10y

I took it. A bit happy that it's shorter than the last one. Last time I didn't find time to do any of the optional questions, but this time I did all but a couple.

[-]nicdevera10y660

Done. Fairly high confidence that I'm still the lone Filipino LessWronger.

[-]V_V10y660

Done

[-]Cthulhoo10y660

Survey done, awesome as usual, Yvain. Can't wait for the results.

[-]Screwtape10y650

Survey finished- erred on the side of not screwing up Yvain's numbers where possible, but I'm curious what the ideal way to mark down Religious Background for results of families that divorced over religious disagreement is. Also had a really strong desire (thwarted, but present) to put a SQL injection into the question about whether the universe is a simulation, which is a bad idea no matter what the answer turns out to be or whether I could conceivably affect the simulation. It's like a pascal's wager mixed with a Russian roulette, only the gun is fully loaded. Either I screw up the numbers, I tank the survey, or I crash the simulation. Dear brain, we were reading about akrasia just recently, were you paying attention?

[-]dspeyer10y100

Why would the universe be particularly likely to run an SQL statement in a form question about whether the universe is a simulation? All you have to do is think the attack and

NO CARRIER

0jdgalt10y

Somehow this made me think of Larry Niven's "Rotating Cylinders and the Possibility of Global Causality Violation".

[-]LawrenceC10y640

Just completed my first survey!

[-]DanielFilan10y640

Did the survey!

[-]Gunnar_Zarncke10y640

Took it.

EDIT: I was surprised to find the BEM test in it. I took it some time ago and it resulted in 65-70% F and 50-60% M (as far as I can see largely because of my strong and caring relationship to my children).

I didn't determine my digit-ratio during the test but did right now. I arrive at totally different values (between 0.91 and 1.05) depending and hand and exact points and the copier print reading gives still different values. My best guess is that it is somewhere around 0.96.

9Elund10y

I think you're supposed to measure from the middle of the bottom crease to the middle of the tip. Also, since the bottom crease itself can be about a millimeter or two wide, I measured from the middle of that crease by its width in addition to its length. When I do that I get consistent results even on repeated measurements.

0Gunnar_Zarncke10y

Sure. If I pick the same spot I get the same results. Esp. with a photocopy. But at least the significant difference between left and right hand remains. Even when photocopying it makes a difference how strong you press your hand against the plate and how much contrast the scan has (for me it was too dark to make out the creases clearly).

6Vaniver10y

It is common for them to be different; that's why the survey asks for each hand separately. Inter-rater reliability (given the same scan) for this measurement is in the r=.9 range, if I remember correctly, so don't feel that bad about it being variable; the underlying quantity is actually difficult to measure (but meaningful nonetheless).

3Gunnar_Zarncke10y

I don't doubt that the measure is meaningful. The influence is surely real. The question is rather whether anything meaningful can be derived on the individual level.

2Elund10y

Maybe the corresponding fingers on your other hand really are different in length. Mine are. Whenever I press my fingers against each other such as to line up their bottom creases (keeping the orientation of the fingers as straight as possible), the middle and upper creases and fingertips don't line up. My right fingers are slightly shorter. Good point about the photocopier. Hopefully these issues won't add too much noise to the results and obscure any significant results.

[-]Tristan10y640

Survey taken!

[-]Neo10y640

Taken!

[-][anonymous]10y640

I did the survey.

[-]zedzed10y640

I hope you don't count fanfiction as "books", because otherwise my response is off by at least two bullet points.

[-]AnthonyC10y630

Done!

[-]endoself10y630

I took the survey.

[-]Rubix10y630

Survey surveilled!

[-]gjm10y170

Nope. You've been surveilled, by the survey.

7Vulture10y

I think you've been surveyed, rather. (Although undoubtedly surveilled as well, given the current political climate...)

8TobyBartels10y

Well, in all fairness, Rubix presumably did also survey the survey. And hopefully perused it as well, maybe even filled it out!

[-]Alicorn10y630

Tooken. My scanner was being evil today so I only had low-res overview scans, and could only get to within a tenth of a centimeter, but I think my results are dramatic enough that it's not wildly incorrect to use my guess? Drop me if I'm wrong, I should be easy to pick out of the crowd via karma.

[-]rule_and_line10y630

Done! Wish I had had a scanner handy going in, I'm curious about the digit ratio.

0Elund10y

I think it should be fine to just hold a ruler up to your finger. The only potential problem might be that the highest tip of your finger wouldn't actually touch the ruler, but if you don't want to estimate by sight you can hold another flat surface perpendicular to it to see where that touches the ruler. I get consistent measurements this way.

[-]FiftyTwo10y630

Completed.

Can anyone explain the Bem Sex Roles thing and why its relevant? I scored slightly more masculine and less feminine then average which confused me slightly. Its all self reporting though so I'm not sure how much it will express m nature vs what I value (like to think about myself)

[-]ruelian10y630

Done, though sadly without the digit ratio due to lack of equipment. I'm a newbie and I just thought that was really cool.

[-]Evan_Gaensbauer10y620

I did the survey! This is the second time I've completed an iteration of this survey, but this year was the first time I answered all the questions. I also did all the extra credit except for the digit ratio question.

[-]kalium10y620

Took the survey.

[-]blacktrance10y620

Finished the survey. Didn't answer the SSC question even though I read it regularly because I plan to take the edited version when it's posted there, and I also didn't answer the digit ratio question.

[-]Phothrism10y620

Did it, that was fun! Can't wait for the results.

[-]Gvaerg10y620

Did the survey! I think i gave highly contradictory answers.

[-]undermind10y620

Survey done, including digit ratio. And I learned something new.

But not particularly confident in the accuracy of my measurement.

[-]brahmaneya10y620

Took the survey, except for the digit ratio part.

[-][anonymous]10y620

Finished.

[This comment is no longer endorsed by its author]Reply

[-]singularitard10y620

The entire community is extremely insular and is weighed down with it's own established ideas. Most of the writers speak with total conviction, absolutely convinced of their own conclusions, despite the entire point of the endeavor being the pursuit of ever increasing amounts of correctness, thus making them 'less wrong'.

It consists mostly of extremely narrow demographics, cutting it's objectivity off at the knees by creating a culture that is perfect for serving as echo chambers despite their criticism of one another. It has also engaged in censorship of ideas, something that CANNOT be allowed in a group that is trying to further rational thought.

Aside from that there is also the personality cult surrounding Eliezer Yudkowsky. Objectivity is impossible if people weight the merit of your arguments by your popularity, which is inevitable in such a situation.

[-][anonymous]10y620

Took the survey. Skipped the digit ratio - I could have done it but didn't feel like walking to the copier or finding a ruler.

[-]Prismattic10y180

Next year I want to see an independent measure of conscientiousness, and compare this between people who bother to answer the digit ratio question and those who don't...

0othercriteria10y

The conscientiousness/akrasia interactions are also fascinating, but even harder to measure. There's a serious missing-not-at-random censoring effect going on for people too conscientious to leave off digit ratio but too akrasic to do the measurement. I nearly fell into this bucket.

[-]Skeptityke10y610

Completed.

[-]TheMajor10y610

Survey done, except for the digits ratio question!

[-]khafra10y610

I would have given a response for digit ratio if I'd known about the steps to take the measurement before opening the survey, or if it were at the top of the survey, or if I could answer on a separate form after submitting the main survey. I didn't answer because I was afraid that if I took the time to do so, the survey form, or my https connection to it, or something else would time out, and I would lose all the answers I had entered.

5dspeyer10y

It's a Google-forms survey. I'm pretty sure they don't do that. Can't blame you for being cautious, though.

[-][anonymous]10y600

Did the survey.

[-][anonymous]10y600

Done, except the digit ratio thing.

[-]Gedusa10y600

I filled in the survey! Like many people I didn't have a ruler to use for the digit ratio question.

[-]DeterminateJacobian10y590

I have taken the survey, and to signal my cooperation I have upvoted every existing top-level comment here. Do unto others...

[-]dthunt10y590

Survey complete!

I'm kind of surprised at how much better I feel like I've gotten about reasoning about these really fuzzy estimates. One of my big goals last year was "get better at reasoning about really fuzzy things" and I feel like I've actually made big progress on that?

I'm really excited to see what the survey results look like this year. I'm hoping we've gotten better at overconfidence!

The gender default thing took me by surprise. I'm guessing that a lot of people answer yes to having a strong gender identity?

4Nornagest10y

This has seen a lot of discussion over at Slate Star Codex. Judging from the anecdotes I've seen in the comments there, there doesn't seem to be an obviously dominant answer, although of course there are self-selection issues in that context; I'll be interested to see what the survey turns up.

3dthunt10y

I definitely don't have a strong identity in this sense; like, I suspect I'd be pretty okay if an alien teenager swooped by and pushed the "swap sex!" button on me, and the result was substantially functional and not horrible to the eye. Like, obviously I'd be upset about having been abused by an outside force, but I don't think the result itself is inherently distasteful or anything like that. I'm really curious to see how this and related stuff (male/female traits, fingers) relate.

[-]gjm10y590

Submitted. (Yvain, if you're reading this, you might want to see my note about an accidental incomplete submission.)

[-]hawkice10y590

I am somewhat disappointed to be asked about favorability with a movement without allowing me to distinguish between the ideals of that movement and the movement as it exists (see: feminism and social justice, which, as phenomenon in reality appear to be ways to generate indignation on tumblr -- I love equality but do not use tumblr and I don't see any purpose in being indignant on the internet).

Also, as regards a "Great Stagnation": Strongly Doubt is not the opposite of Strongly Believe. So I have strong doubts where the balance of my estimation is that Cowen is incorrect -- my radio button does not exist, it is too far to one end of the spectrum, despite not being a hyper-radicalized opinion.

7TobyBartels10y

There's the movement as it exists, and there's one facet of the movement as it exists. For example (and not to push any particular point of view here, it's just an example), I'm involved in the feminist movement. But I spend no time on Tumblr. Sometimes I read things that reference Tumblr, and my impression is that to get involved on Tumblr would be a colossal waste of time, so I don't do it. (Once in a while somebody links to something on Tumblr, basically saying "Look at this thing that I saw on Tumblr.", and I look at that one thing, but I never feel the urge to do more.) I also make it a point not to get indignant on the Internet, even when discussing feminism. (Occasionally I get indignant in face-to-face contact, but I have time to edit myself on the Internet.) Most of the feminism that I do on the Internet is arranging face-to-face meetings of feminists, so there's not much to get indignant about. But occasionally I expand my focus to commenting on posts where a discussion, or even an argument, is taking place. The last time that I did that, one person private-messaged me to call me "diplomatic" and another person agreed that I was right after all; both of them had gotten indignant before this, but I hadn't. (To be honest, this foray was more successful than usual, but the usual is neutral, not disastrous.) So I do not use Tumblr, and I very rarely get indignant on the Internet, but here I am, in the feminist movement as it exists.

1A1987dM10y

I think you should average over your meta-uncertainty and answer according to your overall probability.

4hawkice10y

You may have misunderstood me. I have high levels of doubt but some certainty. Let's say I'm 80% unsure but have information that leads me to be 20% sure (or, in other words, the probability I would assign to my analysis being correct is only a bit better than guessing). So I'd want something maybe 1/5th away from "Strongly Doubt". But I am not 1/5th closer to "Strongly Believe". I am 1/5 closer to "Strongly Disbelieve" or "Strongly Disagree", perhaps.

5A1987dM10y

Sorry, I hadn't noticed that the leftmost option was labeled “Strongly doubt” -- I think I must have seen the “Strongly d” part plus the “Strongly believe” label on the rightmost option and my brain must've autocompleted the former to “Strongly disbelieve”. I would have picked the third radio button rather than the fourth if I had noticed that in time.

[-]A1987dM10y580

Done, except the digit ratio thing. I still picked a public key and a private key, so that if I get near a scanner or photocopier before November 14 I will submit an otherwise empty survey response with my digit ratios and the same public key and private key as today. Is that OK?

In Political, going only by the descriptions after the colons it looks like Liberal is halfway between Social democratic and Libertarian, and I picked it based on those, but... note that Moldbug also is socially permissive in most all the senses I care about (besides the post I linked, he also supports gay rights) and yet his position doesn't resemble that of the US Democratic Party or the UK Labour Party.

In Less Wrong Use, I rounded my top-level posts down to zero.

In Time on LW and Hours Online, thanks to LeechBlock, I didn't have to pull numbers out of my ass! Likewise for Meditate thanks to Beeminder. OTOH, I answered Books by counting the books I can remember reading and dividing by an anally extracted estimate of the fraction of books I read that I remember.

In the second part of the Calibration questions, does “correct” imply ‘correctly spelled’? My answers are P(correct and correctly spelled) + P(rec... (read more)

[-]MTGandP10y120

I answered that I'm cis by default, but I would freak out if I woke up in a woman's body.

I think it's totally reasonable to consider that freaky for reasons other than that you now have to live as a woman. I think the spirit of the question was more, "If you were a woman but had the same personality, would you be okay with that?"

-227chaos10y

This seems like a contradiction to me.

8DanielFilan10y

You can make your own soylent. I do so, and it's pretty tasty. http://diy.soylent.me/

6Richard_Kennaway10y

Wikipedia describes its origin. The items on the test are based on the opinions of 100 Stanford undergraduates in the 1970s about what traits of behaviour and personality in each sex are socially desirable, and the norming of the test was done with a total of about 1500 Stanford undergraduates. Here is a review article about the BSRI from 2001.

7Lumifer10y

LOL. Oh, boy...

5TobyBartels10y

Cue the jokes about the 1970s … but the fact that they were all Stanford undergrads (very W.E.I.R.D.) is probably even more significant.

0jdgalt10y

I see liberal vs. libertarian as a two dimensional thing as depicted here.

2A1987dM10y

I'm familiar with a similar thing from Political Compass. Going from the descriptions after the colons only, Yvain divided the upper half plane into "Communist" and "Conservative" and the lower half plane into "Social democratic", "Liberal" and "Libertarian".

[-]BloodyShrimp10y580

Done! The length is fine; the questions are interesting and fun to consider.

EDIT: removed concerns about "cryivf" if. "srzhe" nf ynetrfg obar (znff if. yratgu); gur cryivf nccneragyl vfa'g n "fvatyr obar".

[-]Baisius10y210

You should probably Rot13 this. I scanned the comments before I did the survey, and I couldn't remember why I was so confident in the correct answer, but I was.

[-]queeborg10y570

Survey completed. Account created to get starting karma and increase likelihood/amount of future participation.

I'd like to note that the current formulation of sex/gender/sexual orientation questions forced me to misrepresent myself because the technically correct answers seemed to cause an even greater misrepresentation. I would like extra options to the "sex assigned at birth" question, perhaps "male, now transitioned to female/other" and vice versa, to account for other-gendered transitioners; but I'll be the first to admit that this probably isn't a major issue.

[-]Scott Alexander10y130

I'm confused. If you were male at birth and transitioned to female, can't you just answer the "sex assigned at birth" question male, and the gender question with "transgender m -> f" ?

[-]queeborg10y120

Well, that's how I answered, but "other" would have been a more honest description of my gender. The question asked: "With what gender do you primarily identify?" and I don't have a female identity, only what I can describe as a femininely androgynous body image (prompting transition treatments) and much heavier social dysphoria about being male'd than female'd, although the optimal no-mental-suffering-causing option would be to be recognized as non-binary. Answering "AMAB other homosexual" probably wouldn't have had a statistically relevant effect but the possibility of being interpreted (even though realistically nobody would have cared about it in the anonymized answers) as a "male" genderqueer attracted to men was psychologically too painful.

[-]pianoforte61110y570

I completed most things except for the digit ratio. Thanks for putting this together, the results are always very interesting to see. Now to see how many of the trivia I got right.

[-]Kawoomba10y570

Carrier has arrived ... what? huh? Where am ... oh right, yea, did the survey.

[-]knb10y560

We did it. Mission accomplished.

[-]slutbunwaller10y560

y'all a bunch of paranoid delusional mentally-disabled freaks who can't get laid

[-]polymathwannabe10y560

Just took it.

[-]Kaninchen10y560

Taken. Looking forward to seeing the results!

[-]Jiro10y560

Took the survey. However, my answer for the probability of MWI is "Since MWI makes the same predictions as the standard interpretation, asking for the probability of MWI is meaningless. It is like asking "this glass is 50% full of water. What is the probability that it is half empty? What is the probability that it is half full?" I put 0 for the MWI question, but I'm not sure what you want for that.

For some of the other probability questions, my answer is "I don't have enough information to come up with a good estimate, and I also don't have enough information to come up with a probability that takes into account my inability to come up with a good estimate". Again, I put 0.

Also, after the test, I'm starting to get worried how you anonymize the questions. Releasing the data without a name attached is not anonymization, if the answers people give are enough to identify them.

6A1987dM10y

Both are 100%. Duh. Likewise, I interpreted MWI to include any interpretation that makes the same predictions as it. I still gave an answer less than 100% because I wouldn't completely rule out all objective collapse theories just yet.

327chaos10y

I was especially bothered by the MWI question because it asked whether it was "more or less" correct. Of course it's more or less correct since its math works! But since I assumed the question was intended to find out whether or not I thought favorably of the theory, I just skipped it.

0nshepperd10y

Um, nothing complicated is required here. Consult your gut feeling and put whatever number comes up. Turning this into an actual probability is why we have calibration questions. Putting 0 is definitely a wrong way of refusing to answer the question (you can already leave the box blank, if you really want, and thereby avoid polluting other results). As an aside, given we had at least three people with such strange interpretations of the MWI question so far, perhaps the survey should include a question asking one's opinion on map-vs-territory... I believe that effective anonymization (apart from removing names) is in general impossible. Although, for specific analyses a reduced dataset can be effective, such as all pairwise joint histograms, which I think preserves a certain amount of anonymity depending how unique each person's answers are.

0TobyBartels10y

I also put 0 for MWI, although I feel pretty good about that. (For reasons explained in this comment, a 0 means that my answer is less than 0.5%.) I am the kind of Bayesian who strictly speaking only speaks of probabilities of potentially observable events. (This is a kind of logical-positivist Bayesianism, I guess.) It doesn't do to be too strict about this sort of thing (I don't want to just wall off entire subjects as unspeakable, which is the classic failure mode of logical positivism), but it does mean that I have to think about what other statements really mean in practical terms. So I interpreted this to mean, assuming that I learn much much more about the nature of the world than I know now, would I think that the MWI is a useful way for people today to think about things? (That's pretty much how I always interpret questions about interpretations.) And no matter how much learning I contemplate, the log-odds are never as good as 8 bits against, so that's a 0.

0Elund10y

Putting 0 is misleading. It implies that you're confident there is no chance at all. If you're really not leaning one way or another, your best bet is to just put 50, or perhaps even skip the question if you really don't want to give a probability.

0Jiro10y

Choosing 50% is availability bias. Just because the question is presented as a choice between MWI and everything else doesn't mean there are only two choices. There are zillions of choices; MWI is just the one mentioned on the screen in front of me.

0Elund10y

I assumed you'd already factored in those other choices and still weren't leaning more for or against it relative to all the other possibilities combined. By "leaning one way or another", I meant along a hypothetical axis of "strongly believe" or "strongly disbelieve" for the given proposition. You have a good point about availability bias though. You can self-correct for that to some extent by decreasing your assigned probabilities, and we'd have to take availability bias into account while interpreting the probabilities given by other people.

[-]sixes_and_sevens10y560

Done. The basilisk question was really interesting.

Welp, gotta go and destroy all humans now...

727chaos10y

I don't think I saw such a question? Spooky.

5Vulture10y

I suspect it was a joke, but god only knows wrt that clusterflip...

1sixes_and_sevens10y

Can I ask what sentiment you were going for with "clusterflip"?

1Vulture10y

A more polite form of "clusterfuck". It was the least ridiculous-sounding form I could think of.

[-]Peter Wildeford10y550

Done.

[-]MTGandP10y550

Survey complete!

[-]AshwinV10y540

DONE.

Hopefully, i'll be able to change a few of my answers regarding the LW meetup frequency by next year. And the answers regarding donations should change drastically within 3 years.

Was pretty happy that I knew a bunch of the answers wrt the calibration section. :)

Now hand over them Karma points.

[-]davidrusu10y540

Took the survey!

[-]ChrisHallquist10y540

Done, except for the digit ratio, because I do not have access to a photocopier or scanner.

[-]RolfAndreassen10y540

I took the survey.

[-]Capla10y530

Done!

[-]Emile10y530

I have filled in the survey (I wouldn't have minded if it was longer!)

[-]radical_negative_one10y530

Survey completed in full, reporting in for karma as per ancient tradition.

Thanks to Scott and Dan for all the work they put into this!

[-][anonymous]10y530

Done!

[-]atorm10y530

I did everything but finger length. I am shame.

[-][anonymous]10y530

Did the survey!

[-]NancyLebovitz10y530

Did it, including the digit ratio.

I may have found a problem-- if I didn't click on the background after answering a radio button question, then using the down arrow marked a lower radio button. I think I cleared up all the resulting errors, but it took two passes, and I may not have caught all the errors.

5NancyLebovitz10y

I didn't express how serious I think the down-arrow problem is, though perhaps my computer habits are unusual enough that no one else had it. I think it led to at least ten wrong answers, and some of them showed up on the second pass when I was correcting the first batch. Did anyone else notice this problem?

2Emily10y

Always an annoying thing about radio-buttons on scrolling pages. I adjusted to clicking on the background in such situations a long time ago (for the most part), but it still really annoys me.

2Vulture10y

I was hyper-aware of this problem, since it's happened to me on internet surveys in this past, so I nervously clicked on the background at least once before scrolling down each time. If there was some way to know that this wouldn't happen it would be a bit of a weight off my mind :p

2A1987dM10y

I usually scroll using the PageDown key and/or the scrollwheel on my mouse (I mean, the side bar on my touchpad, but I'm too used to using the word “mouse” to refer to any pointing device).

1jdgalt10y

I've learned to use the mouse, and not the keyboard, when answering this sort of thing. YMMV.

0b_sen10y

Nthed. I had to scroll using only the mouse.

0VAuroch10y

Since you can move through that with the tab key, I don't think it's a significant problem.

[-]ahartell10y530

Completed!

[-]gjm10y530

Is it deliberate that the size of the MONETARY REWARD is not stated anywhere?

[-]SteveReilly10y520

Finished it. I can't wait to read the post that talks about how bad people are at following directions.

[-]Scott Alexander10y130

I can already tell you that...well, you remember the preview thread. The one where I posted a version of the survey saying in big letters on the top "DO NOT TAKE THIS, IT IS NOT OPEN" and the first question was "You are not supposed to take the survey now" and the only answer was "Okay, I'll stop"?

Four people took it. Obviously they won't be counted.

[-]ChristianKl10y190

Did those people get the coin probability question right?

5TheOtherDave10y

If there were more of them, I'd be interested to know if there were significant differences in the survey responses between the people who did and didn't.

2Jiro10y

(Reply to somewhat old post) In "The Design of Everyday Things", Don Norman points out that having a "push" sign on a door where the most natural action is to pull the door is a bad design. Having a sign saying "do not take this survey" on a survey that would otherwise look like you should take it seems to be an extension of that.

[-]aarongertler10y520

Done! The survey has been a progressively smoother experience each of the past three years. And it's nice to have a time to think about the past month's habits in a structured way during the school year.

[-]NikiT10y520

My first comment is to say I did the survey.

[-]beoShaffer10y520

Done

[-]Bobertron10y520

Done

[-]Dallas10y520

I completed the survey. (Did not do the digit ratio questions due to lack of available precise tools.)

[-]Dreaded_Anomaly10y520

Submitted, answering almost all questions.

The hardest question was choosing a single favorite LW post.

Also, I wasn't sure if Worm should count as more than one book. (It didn't end up mattering.)

A scanner + Photoshop makes it significantly easier to measure digit ratios.

9A1987dM10y

Was that question not there yesterday?

7Vulture10y

I'm starting to feel rather disappointed that I took the survey so early. Should have waited around for Scott to add the interesting questions...

[-][anonymous]10y520

Surveyed --- I feel somewhat unconfident about my calibration.

[-]RicardoFonseca10y520

Did it just now. Lone portuguese (from Portugal) here with high certainty.

[-]Nornagest10y520

Submitted.

[-][anonymous]10y520

Took the survey! Now to upvote everyone who took it.

[-]Baisius10y520

For those that have mentioned a lack of a ruler, I used this one online: http://iruler.net/.

Might be worth it to link in the survey, if it's still editable.

7A1987dM10y

First thing I thought was ‘I'm not sure it's accurately calibrated’, but since we're measuring ratios it doesn't matter.

4Elund10y

You can click "select your monitor dimension" to resize the ruler. The default they gave me was wrong. I actually suggest making the ruler even smaller than the authentic size, so that the distance between millimeters will be shorter and thus the ratio will be more precise.

[-]tog10y520

I'll be interested to compare the results to the 2014 Effective Altruists Survey from earlier this year. Peter Hurford will be presenting its results soon, and I believe he's cross-tabulating them with those on the 2013 LW Census (including figures like the gender ratio and how much people donate).

[-]tog10y200

Also: I've now taken the survey. There were some interesting questions there.

[-]Elund10y510

I took the survey.

I have a few suggestions though.

For the race question, I recommend allowing people to pick more than one option, or creating an extra option saying "I don't primarily identify with one race".

For profession, I feel like it was unclear what people who aren't currently students or employed are supposed to pick. What they most recently worked in or studied in a formal setting? What about students who haven't declared a major yet? The field of study they're leaning toward?

For the time in community question, I suggest clarifying whether that includes lurking. My guess was no, but I think it was sufficiently vague to where a significant number of people wouldn't have guessed that.

I would also be interested in seeing a question relating to use of artificial cognitive enhancement techniques such as tDCS and nootropics.

Thanks for working on the survey. :)

-1Ixiel10y

Amen. Though maybe in terms of analysis "I do not identify with any race," which I imagine may be more common here than other places since people choose not to identify with other variables for which it is a more radical statement, is uninteresting to the survey. I that case, "I do not identify with a race" or "I identify with more than one race" could be usefully lumped in with "other." If we're the only two a racial people on the site I'm not sure it's worth the effort.

0Elund10y

It might be uninteresting from the standpoint of someone who only wants specific racial information, but it still might be interesting for other reasons to see what other qualities correlate with someone who picks that kind of answer. The thing is, I wasn't sure Yvain had the capability to create checkboxes that allow selecting more than one answer choice, as I didn't see them anywhere on the survey. The "I don't primarily identify with one race" was meant to be a catch-all for mixed-race people who don't want to pick sides between their races, but I agree it would be more useful to subdivide that even further to "I identify with more than one race" and "I do not identify with a race". I personally got around this by selecting "other" on the grounds that I identify with the human race. It looks like for the 2013 survey, 51 people answered "other" and 22 people left it blank, so I think there are enough people for further distinctions to be worthwhile. There were other race options that even fewer people selected. I feel like "other" is best reserved for people who do identify with an ethnicity that wasn't represented in the answer choices, and leaving the question blank is best reserved for people who dislike the question/answers, want to be more anonymous, etc.

2Ixiel10y

I agree. Selecting other felt like I was shoehorning in. I just hate asking for special treatment. Growing up, a whiner was the worst legal thing one could be, and it stuck with me a little. But 73 people does seem significant .

[-]CAE_Jones10y510

Done.

I tried doing it on my phone earlier, but was having "issues" and decided to wait until I could do so on a laptop. In the mean time, I read the digit ratio comments and decided to try and measure mine.

I measured wrong, and the ruler (which is no more precise than half centimeters) did not come with me to my current location. *is sad*

[-]therufs10y510

I have submitted the survey, AND for the first time realized I'm not sure the example lifespan in the anti-agathics question should be understood as continuous. And I learned about natural law!

[-]XFrequentist10y510

Done did the survey!

[-]kuudes10y510

Thanks, I did the survey. I had been lurking some multiple months in irc and reading bits of sequences and now made an account after the survey.

I would be interested to work with the organizers to include an actual IQ testlet in a future survey.

9Elund10y

My worry is that taking an IQ test online (even timed with reliable questions) cannot duplicate the exact same experience as taking an IQ test in a proctored setting. There are likely to be more confounding factors that throw off the scores relative to proctored tests, since the environments cannot be as strictly controlled.

5kuudes10y

Well yes. Mainly including a couple of testlets would alleviate the self-test worry. We could infer the population average IQ relative to those testlets' hardness, which could confirm or disprove the self-reported IQ accuracy. I have understood that there has been some amount of doubt related to self reporting of IQ on the census here.

5Elund10y

Sure, if you gave the same test to a representative sample of LWers and to a representative sample of the general population, you could calibrate IQ scores across them. I still expect it to be less reliable than proctored IQ tests though, not because I'm worried about people lying about their scores, but because of a higher incidence of confounding factors such as distracting noises, internet connection failures, and even the presence of daylight from a nearby window. http://h-m-g.com/projects/daylighting/publicity%20daylighting.htm I suppose it might be interesting to include some IQ questions anyway, as it might still turn up some interesting results. We'd just have to keep the limitations in mind while analyzing the results.

[-]Tenoke10y510

Hmm, I did worse on those calibration questions than I would've expected.

[-]MTGandP10y120

Most people do worse at calibration than they expect, but you can improve with practice. http://predictionbook.com/

[-]StephenR10y510

All done.

[-]27chaos10y510

I put an estimate on one calibration question that I knew was wrong. In hindsight I shouldn't have done that. The mistake: I don't know what bone is the longest in the body, but I knew that. So I put down a random answer for that question. But then I felt like it would be cheating on the calibration to put 0% after an intentionally wrong answer, so I put a higher number that wasn't accurate. My mistake, but other people might have done something similar.
I want the political questions to measure the importance of an issue on next year's survey.

6Nornagest10y

If you put down a random answer and know you did, then it seems like the correct estimate for your calibration would be 1 over the size of the sample space. Google tells me there are 206 bones in the adult human body, but a lot them are mirrored left to right, so maybe you'd be looking at something just south of 1%? Probably higher, though, if you filtered out the many small bones in e.g. the fingers and toes, or the vertebrae.

727chaos10y

You're assuming the answer I wrote down was an accurate name of a bone.

2Elund10y

Even then your subjective probability wouldn't have been exactly 0. You could have put 0.00000000001 or something like that. The instructions didn't forbid you from using long decimals. Even so, I think it would have been fine to put 0 if your subjective probability really was 0 or you felt like rounding down to it.

2kalium10y

The question was about the largest bone, not the longest bone.

1Kawoomba10y

Tomayto, tomahto. Comes out to the same. Which is good, since the question would be ambiguous otherwise. Wasn't sure whether to round to 100 or to 99. After all, we could all have been lied to.

5TobyBartels10y

If you think that the probability that we've all been lied to about this (the relative sizes of the bones in the human body) might be as high as 0.5%, then you live in a more interesting world than I do. Unless you just mean that you checked Wikipedia, and somebody who knowingly puts a false statement on Wikipedia (a public website) is technically lying to everybody, and you didn't check the references or even the edit history, so you were unsure whether the probability of having found such a false statement was higher or lower than 0.5%, then … well then I still think that that's much too high! (Edits: precise phrasing of stuff about technical lying.)

0Kawoomba10y

Well it gets really murky as to what constitutes lying if we're in a simulation, which is more probable than 0.005 by far. What if there were historic humans, but you're just a virtual facsimile of one? Is that a "we were lied to about our bones"-scenario? And so on. That's mostly what I was pondering.

2Elund10y

Well, the statement could still be true in the context of the simulation. You may not have bones that exist in the universe outside the simulation, but you still have "bones" within the simulation. The name "bone" as well as the names for specific bones would be accurate if those are the agreed-upon names within your simulated culture. Whether the bones need to physically exist in the most fundamental level of reality in order to be considered bones seems like an argument over semantics. They still possess the other typical characteristics of bones that our culture has decided bones are supposed to possess. In everyday practice, people assign objects to linguistic categories based on resemblance to a prototypical example, not by making sure they fulfill a list of necessary criteria.

0Kawoomba10y

Oh, I agree that "the statement could still be true in the context of the simulation". Likely so, in fact, which is why we go down all the way to 0.005 from P(we all live in a grand ol' simulation, in a simulation, in a simulation). The whole survey was full of definitional quibbles. What is 'supernatural' etc.

0jdgalt10y

Largest is ambiguous. It could mean longest, or largest volume (with or without counting the volume enclosed, if we're talking about the skull), or even heaviest.

3TobyBartels10y

Not that i knew the answer, but I assumed that of course it meant the heaviest. I don't seem to have much company in this!

0Elund10y

I think it means largest volume without counting the volume enclosed.

0Bugmaster10y

That's what I thought too, and apparently I was wrong...

[-]TrE10y510

I accidentally pressed enter and the form was sent away - half-filled.

This is stupid. I sent another form with only the second half of the survey filled out. Dividing line is the population question, which I incorrectly answered with Rot13(Ehffvn).

8A1987dM10y

You might want to rot13 that.

5TrE10y

Thanks.

[-]Scott Garrabrant10y500

Done. I accidentally hit enter when I had everything done except for the digit question, so It submitted my entry and I was not able to answer that question. :(

[-]Jackercrack10y500

Completed. I'll be fascinated to see how digit length correlates to gender default. It would imply some very interesting things about sexuality.

[-]FourFire10y500

I answered every question except the last one (I don't have a scanner set up).

[-]Raemon10y500

Took the survey. I think I've mentioned this last year: I'd like more clarity about the distinction between a "supernatural" God and living in a simulation.

7Vulture10y

Seconded.

3Elund10y

Thirded. I was momentarily stumped by that question, not being sure whether a simulator living in a universe with different natural laws than our own counted as "supernatural". I ended up deciding no. The simulator's universe might be a different kind of natural, but not "supernatural". Still, including a clarification in the question would have reduced errors due to misunderstanding, not to mention saved us time. The survey is already quite long as it is.

2jdgalt10y

I wouldn't mind the survey being twice as long if it allowed it to handle these can't-answer situations, though I would expect it to be the same length but just have a button or two to the right of each entry blank.

0Elund10y

That would seem kind of redundant as it's already not necessary to answer every question, even the ones that don't say they're extra credit or skippable. Maybe Yvain could have made that clearer at the beginning? I personally wouldn't have minded a longer survey either. I'm just worried that making it longer would deter others from completing as many questions or even taking the survey in the first place. It might be a good idea to have a poll (perhaps within the survey itself) asking for the amount of time we'd be willing to spend on such a survey.

[-]iceman10y500

Surveyed!

Thank you for continuing to run it.

[-]ChristianKl10y500

Given the decision on a cap in length I think it might be worthwhile to do a second LW Lifestyle and Values survey in addition to the census. At best with half a year of distance to the census.

8Evan_Gaensbauer10y

I made this suggestion in the Yvain's call for critiques on the census. Who'd do this. If nobody else is willing, I'd help create the Google Form, but I don't know how to do statistical analysis. Otherwise, I am a generic volunteer for this project, to be assigned tasks.

[-]DavidS10y500

I am curious what kind of analysis you plan to run on the calibration questions. Obvious things to do:

For each user, compute the correlation between their probabilities and the 0-1 vector of right and wrong answers. Then display the correlations in some way (a histogram?).

For each question, compute the mean (or median) of the probability for the correct answers and for the wrong answers, and see how separated they are.

But neither of those feels like a really satisfactory measure of calibration.

8dthunt10y

At the very least, I suspect one of the analyses will be 'bucketize corresponding to certainty, then plot "what % of responses in bucket were right?"' - something that was done last year (see 2013 LessWrong Survey Results) Last year it was broken down into "elite" and "typical" LW-er groups, which presumably would tell you if hanging out here made you better at overconfidence, or something similar in that general vicinity.

[-]gjm10y500

The question called P(Global Catastrophic Risk) should really be called something more like P(not Global Catastrophic Risk). (Or else the question itself should be inverted, but that would be a Bad Idea since some people have now filled in the survey.)

[-]Prismattic10y500

Some US states do not have partisan voter registration, so choosing "no party" does not necessarily mean someone would not register by party if that option were available.

[-]Joey Yudelson10y490

Did the survey! ...And now to upvote everything.

[-]skeptical_lurker10y490

Done!

I left the HBD (human bio-diversity) question blank, due to having misplaced my barge-pole.

[-]FactorialCode10y490

Took the survey!

[-]bramflakes10y490

i did it yay me

[-]Aharon10y490

Done. Skipped the digit ration questions to not put off answering the rest.

[-]Evan_Gaensbauer10y490

I've gone back, sorted the comments by 'new', and upvoted everyone who commented they did the survey since I took it, and upvoted everyone who did it before me. This way I've upvoted everyone, and they got more karma. It took me three minutes. If you spend a substantial amount of spare time on Less Wrong, it might be worth it for others for you to do the same. The more people who do this, the more karma everyone gets. Also, it can act as an incentive for people to take the survey for karma even if they're late to the game.

[-]Gunnar_Zarncke10y110

Did so too.

Twice.

[-]Evan_Gaensbauer10y110

Oh, right. Alternatively, just noticing comments on this post in the 'recent comments' sidebar might suffice.

[-]solipsist10y480

Me, survey, did, etc.

EDIT: I do not self-identify as a LWer (and am a bit surprised other people here would do that), but I would expect to be in the survey target demographic none the less.

[-]ChristianKl10y150

People who frequently play chess are chess players. People who frequently spent time on LW can be seen as LWers. With >1000 karma you simply fit in that category.

1JohnnyCat10y

Undoubtedly a point of controversy. Examples: * In some societies, a great many people play games, if only mobile/phone/web games. Yet only a fraction of them would "identify as gamers". * Birth genders vs. "identification". Or, myself: I identify as an LWer but only made an account today, and certainly haven't yet finished all of the sequences. I could feel like a bit of a poser, or worry others would call me "fake", but that's not actually relevant to my own self-identification.

[-]Jayson_Virissimo10y120

Wait, what other people?

[-]redlizard10y480

I took the survey. No scanner available, alas.

[-]Princess_Stargirl10y470

I too have done the survey!

And am extremely excited to see the results.

[-]Viliam_Bur10y460

Done.

[-]Prankster10y460

Done.

Looking forward to the analysis and release of data!

[-]JoshuaFox10y460

I filled out the survey. Thanks for doing this!

The digit ratio instructions are underspecified.

"....from the middle of the bottom crease". It's hard to tell what the "middle" means meaningfully enough to produce any sort of measurement, even to the nearest centimeter; certainly it is impossible to measure "to the nearest hundredth of a centimeter."
The instructions don't mention the left hand, and don't mention the step of scanning/copying your hand. We can easily interpolate, but the instructions are structured as if they are meant to be followed formally, so may as well make them precise.

[-]beoShaffer10y460

I forgot to ask, does spelling count on the calibration questions? Because there are several were I was less confidient of my spelling than of having the basically right answer.

7zedzed10y

Yeah, my "powerhouse of the cell" probability varied from 100 to, like, 40 depending on whether spelling mattered. Then I realized the entry boxes had spell-check and decided that didn't count as "checking a source".

[-]Gunnar_Zarncke10y460

Most comments show exactly one downvote without a clear pattern why. I'd guess that a single person downvoted all these short comments. Can it be that this user doesn't know the custom of upvoting survey-takers?

ADDED 2014-10-25T16:20 UTC: The single downvotes disappeared.

ADDED 2014-10-26T21:10 UTC: The single downvotes reappeared again (at least for a lot of high scoring comments).

[-]A1987dM10y210

Can it be that this user doesn't know the custom of upvoting survey-takers?

Or disagrees with it.

6Kawoomba10y

Doesn't know? Of course said user knows. Do you think there's someone going "Um, lots of upvotes here? I have no idea why, so I better downvote each one."? It's someone who doesn't agree / care for the custom. Probably some crooked man, and not of the Scottish General variety (generally, no true Scottish General). Edit: Don't know who, if it's considered against any unwritten rules, it should be easy to find out who it was.

9Vulture10y

This sentence is utterly impenetrable to me, and googling turns up nothing relevant. My curiosity is piqued - would you mind explaining a bit?

6Kawoomba10y

Sorry, it was through no fault of your own. The "crooked man" (stand-in for villain) reminded me of the "There Was a Crooked Man" nursery rhyme. The (short) wiki article should explain the rest. Other than the riff on the No True Scotsman, since indeed the kind of people downvoting others generally consider themselves to be the "true LessWrongers", or so I'd surmise. It was just a throwaway thought, thanks for inquiring :-).

5Neo10y

Same happened last year.

2Adele_L10y

Almost everyone has a downvote again. What's more interesting is the short list of people who don't...

0Gunnar_Zarncke10y

It is interesting in kind of the same way that some people have quite a lot more up-votes than the others. The same threshold preventing downvotes prevents upvotes below.

0Elund10y

I'm not sure I understand. I wasn't able to find explanations by typing "upvote" into the search either. Can you please clarify?

3Gunnar_Zarncke10y

Gwern (79) and Vaniver (66) show significantly more upvotes than the next in line (gwern was initially also one of those who didn't get a downvote when the others did). If upvotes are handed out according to the rule and logically in order of occurrence the vots should roughly read n, n-1, n-2, ... but they don't. Quite some people upvote only their favorite LWers. A little bit of coalition politics or fan-boying on LW after all.

3Vaniver10y

That is interesting! I think some of Gwern's upvotes are coming from people who agree with his "Basilisk" comment / found it because of the discussion it generated, but I suspect the two of us are having some sort of name recognition effect. For everyone else it does look roughly like people upvoting everyone who took the survey the last time they checked: before writing this comment, I'd upvoted everyone before 3:30am server time on the 26th, but it seems like those before and after that line are both about low 30s. I think there's also a factor of people not loading all the comments- otherwise we wouldn't expect the oldest comment to be lower than the early bulk of comments.

0Elund10y

It didn't seem self-evident to me that his mention of the basilisk would help his comment's score overall. I don't personally believe in the basilisk and I do think it would make an interesting survey question, but I thought many LWers considered it a dangerous idea to discuss? They may think that even if they don't believe in it either. Or maybe Eliezer was just weird in his reaction to it. Judging based on Gwern's comment's 99% positive rating, that's certainly what it looks like. It's not so far off that I feel the difference can simply be attributed to people not loading all the comments. At the time of my writing this, the oldest comment has the same score as the third and fourth comments.

2Elund10y

Thanks. That's interesting. I hadn't noticed that. They even score higher than some people who posted earlier, and with similar quality posts. ...At first I was going to say I think it would be more of an exponential decrease since most people take the survey in the first few days and I doubt many people diligently keep track of new comments, but then I remembered that the rate of new "I took the survey" comments themselves decrease exponentially, probably at a similar rate, which cancels out much of the effect. Oh well. This does make the situation less unfair.

0Elund10y

At first I thought this person would only downvote short comments that have little content beyond saying that the user took the survey, but I've since noticed that even "I took the survey" comments with very detailed critiques are getting the single downvotes. My guess is this person doesn't like the idea of some people getting 100% positive ratings through posting only survey comments, as survey comments would be the easiest way to attain that otherwise, or thinks that the amount of karma awarded by other users for these comments (even the detailed ones) is too much, and that karma should mainly be reserved for quality discussions. Personally I think the amount of karma awarded for the short and simple survey comments should be based on the difficulty, time commitment, and benefit from having people take these surveys, but I think the amount of karma being awarded already is in line with that. Sure, there might be a few people lying by saying they took the survey when they in fact didn't, but I suspect that's pretty rare. I would like it though if there were some users who prioritized quality in deciding whether to upvote comments, so that it would be easier for people to quickly locate the most useful comments when they choose the "Sort by: Best" option.

2TobyBartels10y

That's what I've been doing: voting as I normally do, based on quality, regardless of tradition.

3Elund10y

I've been doing that too actually, although I am somewhat tempted to upvote some of the recent survey-takers just to make the playing field more equal for people whose other time commitments made them unable to take the survey very early. I thought about suggesting to Yvain to edit his post by including a suggestion for people who have finished the survey to check back again later to upvote new survey-takers, but I get the impression he may prefer having this incentive against people procrastinating on taking the survey. It does at least mean that on average, the more heavily involved LWers are going to be awarded more karma since they're more likely to notice the survey as soon as it's posted. This however has to be weighed against the disincentive for latecomers to take the survey if they didn't see or were otherwise unable to take the survey early. (Yvain has also on occasion made little changes to the survey after it's been posted, but I don't think that's enough to be a good incentive to take it later.)

0Vulture10y

I'm strongly considering it for next year.

2Elund10y

From what people have said, it seems that after the survey was posted a new question was added about our favorite LW post. Were there any others?

0TobyBartels10y

I really want to know this, and maybe you should make it a top-level comment. (Or maybe I should.) I feel cheated by taking it as soon as I saw it.

2Elund10y

Done.

[-][anonymous]10y450

Taken.

[-]Petter10y450

Done!

[-]VAuroch10y450

Is Anti-Agathics a strict superset of Cryonics? That is to say, would someone becoming cryonically frozen and then restored, and then living for 1000 years from that date, count as a success for the anti-agathics question?

6ChrisHallquist10y

I thought of this last year after I completed the survey, and rated anti-agathics less probable than cryonics. This year I decided cryonics counted, and rated anti-agathics 5% higher than cryonics. But it would be nice for the question to be clearer.

4dthunt10y

Definitely had a thought on this order; I went with "don't die at any point and still reach age 1000", though I also don't really consider solutions that involve abandoning bodies counting.

3VAuroch10y

I haven't put too much thought into the plausibility of effective anti-agathics anyway, so I just left that one blank and moved on.

2Alsadius10y

I wondered that, but I took the answer to be no.

2Elund10y

Well, the description provided in the survey doesn't preclude it, as long as that person is not currently cryonically frozen (the question says living at this moment). My guess is that the intent was to discover the likelihood we assign to anti-agathic drugs being developed during the next 1000 years, in which case they probably should have used a more precise description.

0jdgalt10y

I interpreted the two as completely disjunct. In other words anti-agathics would be drugs or treatments that prevent or repair the symptoms of aging. Some of the same tech (cell repair nanites) could potentially do both jobs, but if you have to be frozen to use the tech then I wouldn't call it anti-agathics. I guess I'm basing this usage on Blish's "They Shall Have Stars" which predicted it in the fifties.

0TobyBartels10y

I didn't interpret it that way, but then again, I'm not signed up for cryonics.

0VAuroch10y

Whether or not you believe cryonics is plausible, counting cryonics-time-capsule as a means of anti-agathics would bound your anti-agathics probability from below. And the question was unclear.

0TobyBartels10y

I didn't mean to say that not signing up for cryonics (or not thinking it plausible, which is different) tells me how to interpret the question. But it's still indicative of an attitude towards cryonics that might make one more likely to interpret it as I did.

[-]ChrisBillington10y440

Did the survey!

Minor quibble:

Number of Current Partners (for example, 0 if you are single, 1 if you are in a monogamous relationship ...)

Seems like bad wording - what if you're in exactly one polyamorous relationship? Your partner could be seeing other people, and even if you're not seeing anyone else you wouldn't call it monogamous.

[-][anonymous]10y440

My first comment here after about a month of lurking is to say that I've completed the survey. Looking forward to seeing the results.

[-]Bendini10y440

Done. If I were to make a wager I'd say that the correlation between a low digit ratio and stereotypically masculine traits is fairly weak, based on my own >90th percentile high digit ratio yet high masculinity/low femininity scores on the inventory (as well as anecdotal reports from others corroborating my stereotypically masculine traits)

[-]William_Quixote10y440

done but for digit ratio

[-]blink10y440

I took the survey. Happy aggregating!

[-]Palinski10y440

Taken!

[-]Vulture10y440

Something that just occurred to me (separate from my took-it comment): Scott, do you take your own survey?

8Scott Alexander10y

Yes, but I keep my data private because I'd be easy to find otherwise and I don't want everyone knowing my income and politics et cetera.

[-]skeptical_lurker10y440

Quick question: I assume the P(God) question excludes simulators, basement universes created in particle accelerators ect? I know it says supernatural, but since a parent universe would not necessarly obey the same laws of physics as the daughter universe, this could be counted as supernatural.

6ChristianKl10y

Last year the question defined supernatural via basic ontological entities with excludes many simulators, this year there no fixed definition and you are up to interpret is as you like.

5Ixiel10y

It said God as an example of supernatural, again making me chuckle as I had to put essentially "committed theist, odds of (defined differently than I do) god and stated superset, 0"

0Azathoth12310y

Of course it's not clear what "ontologically basic" means.

5dthunt10y

1Azathoth12310y

The problem is it's not always clear what it means to "reduce" one entity to another.

2A1987dM10y

http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Reductionism_%28sequence%29

1skeptical_lurker10y

You can take a car to bits, or a brain to bits, but you can't take a soul to bits. ... Although horocruxes work by ripping the soul apart. So souls in canon Harry Potter are not supernatural by that definition... which seems dubious. Maybe they are supernatural, but dark magic can turn them natural?

1Alsadius10y

Nope. The bits are still soul-bits, and they're still made of soul. The scalar is fractional, but the substance is still the same.

0skeptical_lurker10y

Ahh. I was thinking that "irreducible" implied "indivisible". Do religious people think that the soul is irreducible? Even if you can't reduce it to atoms, maybe you could argue that it reduces to component memories, emotions and so forth.

0Alsadius10y

The only religious belief I'm familiar with that'd be relevant is the doctrine of transsubstantiation, which holds that a wafer that goes through the communion process still has the form of a wafer, but it has the substance of Jesus' body. (Likewise, wine becomes wine-like Jesus blood). The distinction between shape, quantity, taste, feel, etc. on one hand and substance on the other seems like it's actually in line with what I said above, but I'm not enough of a theologian to say for sure.

-2A1987dM10y

Well, IIRC Dante Alighieri did, mentioning inattentional blindness as evidence of that.

0Vulture10y

Being able to analyze X in terms of smaller components is not necessarily the same as being able to split X into smaller pieces. For example, it is possible to split up 1 into 1/3 and 2/3, but 1 is nonetheless ontologically basic as a numerical entity... I guess. But the above paragraph feels extremely confused and semantic. It is probably best not to try to wallow into metaphysics without a specific goal in mind.

-3Azathoth12310y

Why are you reducing to bits rather than atoms? Which is more basic?

3skeptical_lurker10y

I meant bits as a synonym for 'pieces' not as in terms of information.

1Azathoth12310y

That still leaves the question of whether brains should be reduced to atoms or bits unresolved?

8Daniel_Molloy10y

You can reduce a brain to atoms, and a mind to bits?

0skeptical_lurker10y

Possible bits are more basic, since physics seems to run on maths, if that makes sense. But I wouldn't say this with especially high confidence.

1Azathoth12310y

That's my point. Being "ontologically basic" is an extremely subtle concept.

0skeptical_lurker10y

Suppose I believe that "mental" and "physical" are both forms of information, and the bit is an ontologically basic mental/physical/information thing. Do I then believe in the supernatural?

[-]eeuuah10y430

Survey!

[-]BenjaminB10y430

I have done the survey. Now I am off to upvote everybody else.

[-]Rowdy10y430

Done!

Yvain, thanks for organising these! :-)

[-]Huluk10y430

Did the survey. Accidently pressed submit before calculating digit ratio :( Answered everything else though.

[-]Risto_Saarelma10y430

Maybe next time add schizoid personality disorder to the "I think I might have this psych disorder" list.

[-]MaximumLiberty10y420

I took the survey. I won't give it back, either.

[-]shiro_inu10y420

Did the survey.

I started reading the articles only recently and just registered the account now.

[-]Steven_Bukal10y420

Did the survey. Thank you once again, Yvain.

[-]hibiscus10y420

Done! Although I'm not quite sure how that was supposed to be 10-15 minutes...

[-]Leon10y420

I suspect most self-identified communists would baulk at the description of their ideology as "complete state control of many facets of life".

[-]Rangi10y420

I took the survey. The BSRI reminds me of the MBTI, though, in that the questions are vague and I would probably give different answers depending on various factors, like what time it is or whom I've interacted with recently.

[-]ike10y420

Finished the survey.

[-]L29Ah10y420

such utility

much karma

[-]LyleN10y410

Took the survey!

Also, a frequent lurker who has finally made an account!

[-]Eneasz10y410

Taken, in full

7Evan_Gaensbauer10y

Bravo! At this point, having actually gone through the steps of scanning the outline of one's own hand and recording the digit ratios is a heroic feat. You have gone beyond expectations, achieving what many of us could not.

[-]Kytael10y410

done. I always like doing these. how will the SSC version be different?

[-]Emily10y410

I did the survey! I don't have sufficiently convenient access to a photocopier or scanner to be induced to do the digit ratio thing though.

[-]CBHacking10y410

Top-level comment to say yep, took the survey! Well, except for the digit length by tool-aided measurement. However, I did do a rough measurement (which I chose to not record on the survey) by manually aligning the creases on both hands (first to verify corresponding finger lengths, then to compare D2:D4) I determined my digit ratio to be in excess of 1.00 and possibly as high as 1.02, which would make me very unusual (especially for a cis male). Then again, my height already makes me that.

Also, this is the first thread in which I've commented on LW! My actual first comment (with more stuff about the survey) is here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/l5k/2014_less_wrong_censussurvey/bihv EDIT: Feedback that I posted in that other comment, which it was pointed out really belongs here: Part Four's "Moral Views" section could have used links (LW, WP, wherever) for those of us who aren't sure about the selection of moral philosophies. It is a question I had been exploring, but mostly just in a "judge each as they are presented to me" approach and I had not encountered all of them before. Also, the WP articles for some of them do not contrast them with the others, so suggested... (read more)

[-][anonymous]10y410

Distinguishing Liberal/Social Democratic seems silly, as the difference between Neoreactionary and Conservative is much greater yet they aren't on the poll, and in previous years they were about as common as self-aware Communists.

Also note that the majority of people who pick "Conservative" on LessWrong are probably going to be Neoreactionary in their preferences and one of the more important markers of that group is strongly dissaproving of right wing people who think they can change things by voting and a loathing for the useless and actually harmfull nature of US Republicans.

6satt10y

Distinguishing "Liberal" & "Social democratic" seems very sensible to me, assuming the survey should have good discriminating power among as much of LW as possible. On the last survey the two most popular categories were "Liberal" (35%) and "Socialist" (32%); it's not as if either category is superfluous. On similar grounds, I think there's a case for rolling the "Communist" category into the "Socialist"/"Social democratic" category to make a broader "Social democratic, socialist and Communist" category that still splits the more leftist respondents from the more centrist. One could then replace the old "Communist" category with a new "Reactionary" category, improving the survey's discriminating power while keeping the total number of categories constant.

3Ixiel10y

...really? I'm sure you've done the research and I haven't but may I see the data? I'd wager we may have more neoreactionaries than the prevailing rate but more than half of people self-identifying as conservative surprises me.

[-]jaime200010y100

It was in Yvain's dark matter essay.

On last year’s survey, I found that of American LWers who identify with one of the two major political parties, 80% are Democrat and 20% Republican, which actually sounds pretty balanced compared to some of these other examples.

But it doesn’t last. Pretty much all of those “Republicans” are libertarians who consider the GOP the lesser of two evils. When allowed to choose “libertarian” as an alternative, only 4% of visitors continued to identify as conservative. But that’s still…some. Right?

When I broke the numbers down further, 3 percentage points of those are neoreactionaries, a bizarre local sect that wants to be ruled by a king. Only one percent of LWers were normal everyday God-‘n-guns-but-not-George-III conservatives of the type that seem to make up about half of the United States.

3Ixiel10y

That surprises me. Pleasantly. Thanks!

0Jiro10y

I think that "libertarian" is what you're likely to get when you take "conservative" and remove all the opinions associated with religion. And for obvious reasons, LW is going to have a very low percentage of people who are serious religious believers.

2Lumifer10y

I don't know about that. For a simple counter-example, conservatives tend to love law and order, libertarians -- not so much. A common simplistic understanding of libertarians is "conservative economically, liberal socially", but even then you don't get there from conservatives just by removing religion.

3Nornagest10y

Cladistically, libertarianism comes out of the Left, not the Right, and in fact shares fairly close historical ties with socialism. This is obscured somewhat by the fact that modern libertarians talk a lot like modern conservatives and tend to use "socialist" as a loose secular synonym for "the spawn of he whom we call the Desolate One", but that's a trend that started no earlier than the Seventies or late Sixties.

0Jiro10y

True, there are some non-religious issues which separate conservatives and libertarians, but someone doesn't have to believe in every libertarian issue to be a libertarian. Are there enough prominent non-religious issues such that someone who takes a conservative position on only the non-religious issues would be considered closer to the conservative side than to the libertarian one? Don't you? Most issues where libertarians are socially liberal have the conservative side heavily influenced by religion.

-1Lumifer10y

Let's check internationally. In Japan, for example, religion (Shinto and/or Buddhism) is not a prominent factor in sociopolitical issues. So does this mean that Japanese conservative politicians are essentially libertarians? Doesn't look like that to me.

1Jiro10y

In Japan, Shinto is associated with Japanese nationalism. Just because it doesn't affect people's views on gay marriage doesn't mean that it has no effect on politics.

0Lumifer10y

Recall that the original issue was whether libertarians are just conservatives less religion. Are you applying this claim globally or you think it's purely a US thing? Going back up a thread a bit I suggested law and order as a conservative issue. You think it's "heavily influenced by religion"?

0Jiro10y

"Most" is not "every issue".

[-][anonymous]10y400

Did the survey. Seemed shorter than last year but I haven't gone back to double check how long last year's was.

In regards to the question on what sort of job you have, I selected 'other' because I work in a factory. I considered selecting 'business' since the factory is owned by a for-profit business, but given that many of the other options were professional positions where one might also be an employee of a business, and because my job is a labor union job rather than a professional position, I took the 'business' option to be more along the lines of e.g. owning a business. I might suggest adding other options like 'manufacturing labor' or the like in the future, if you get enough similar responses to warrant adding those sort of options.

[-]edanm10y400

Did the survey. It felt much shorter this year.

[-]Mollie10y400

I took the survey.

[-]maia10y400

Took the survey. Anyone else concerned that "largest bone in the body" isn't very well-defined? Largest by volume, longest measurement, ... ?

7TobyBartels10y

It has been reported here that largest volume, longest length, and largest mass all give the same result.

[-]Adele_L10y100

That still doesn't help for the purposes of calibration, when you have uncertainty over whether these are all the same.

3TobyBartels10y

Good point.

[-]Sjcs10y400

Took the survey a few days ago, and forgot to even comment! Thanks Yvain and looking forward to seeing what comes out of it

[-]Ander10y400

Survey complete!

I always look forward to seeing the results of these.

[-]bentarm10y400

Did the survey. I don't know what cisgender means, but I assume that's me, as I'm definitely not transgender...

7TheOtherDave10y

It means experiencing little or no conflict between the gender you're generally treated as, the anatomy of your body, and the gender you regard yourself as. "Gender normative" is another phrase that sometimes gets used. (More often, no phrase at all gets used and it's treated as an unmarked case... most people understand "male" to mean cis-male, for example.) It is perhaps worth noting that the term is treated as a tribal signifier on much of the Internet... people who describe themselves as "cisgender" are seen as expressing social alignment with transgender people, which is seen as a "left" position when viewed in U.S. left-right partisan terms. The reasoning here is that being an unmarked case is a form of social power, so by explicitly marking what would otherwise be an unmarked case, the speaker is... well, I'm not sure what, exactly. Calling attention to that power, I guess. Which in this context is understood as aligning with the relatively powerless, though in other contexts (e.g., white people describing themselves as "white") the reverse is true.

1Baughn10y

Well, that feels like it should be a sliding scale. I'm not sure where I'd put such a conflict meter, if one existed, but it isn't at 0.

1TheOtherDave10y

Agreed that it's more accurate to model such conflict (and gender identity more generally) as existing on a continuum than as some kind of binary.

1TobyBartels10y

Trans people are oppressed by having the existence of transgenderism denied, so by calling yourself cisgender, you are acknowledging the existence of transgenderism and countering that oppression. But Black people are oppressed by having the existence of race affirmed and exaggerated, so by calling yourself White, you are emphasizing race and exacerbating that oppression.

2NancyLebovitz10y

From what I've seen on the SJ side, they've done a lot to make white into a marked state (in other words, white people being referred to as white) rather than whiteness being an implied default.

3SteveReilly10y

Yeah, "cis-" (on this side of) is the opposite of "trans-" (across or on the other side of). So if you're currently the same sex as the one you were born as, you're cisgnder.

1Vulture10y

Actually, that's the definition of cissexual.

[-]komponisto10y400

Taken.

[-][anonymous]10y400

Did it. Did all the extra credit except for the digit ratio.

Also, apparently I really have weird ideas about gender, as I'm masculine 55 and feminine 38, more masculine and less feminine than the average male (and I was born male), but I also answered that I don't particularly prefer being born male, modulo the relevant social roles. It's all just sorta a thing that happened; if it had happened the other way, I might have grown up being influenced into different roles and different ways of behaving, but I'd still pretty much be me (complete with being really weirdly headstrong and over-aggressive).

[-]Mati_Roy10y400

Done it. The whole thing! (edit: except the last question)

[-]JoshuaFox10y400

Too late now, but an interesting question would be: Have you volunteered for MIRI, CfAR, or the broader mission of rationality or AI-risk? (The question would have to be specified more precisely than that.)

[-]Scott Garrabrant10y400

Next year, can we have "something sort of like left-libertarianism-ist" on the big politics question. I think that there are many people here (myself included) that do not know how to categorize ourselves politically, but know that we have a lot in common with Yvain.

2TobyBartels10y

Why don't you want to round "something sort of like left-libertarianism-ist" off to left-libertarian, which is the closest thing on the big list?

7Scott Garrabrant10y

I actually do not think it is very close to left-libertarian at all. I am very curious what Yvain answers for this question.

5TobyBartels10y

Yes, having read (or rather reread) the blog post by Yvain that you linked to, I agree, it is pretty different —so different that the title of that blog post is rather misleading! I like ‘liberaltarian’ for that, but Yvain said in his blog post that he doesn't like that term (which would explain why it's not an option in the survey).

[-]kpreid10y390

Took the survey. Did not read the comments first. Here are my observations after filling it out and reading the comments:

Problems encountered:

I followed the instructions carefully for the digit ratio question. I then went to enter my answer and found that the instructions failed to tell me to image my left hand as well as my right, so I gave the partial answer I had rather than go through all the steps again for the left hand. As of this writing, one other person commented on this problem.

Criticism of questions:

I realize after the fact that when answering “how many books have you read”, I counted only things which are books in the sense of "the kind of thing that has an ISBN", excluding book-length self-published-on-the-internet documents, and also thought only of new books as opposed to rereads. I request that future versions of this question clarify what counts as a book and whether rereading counts.
"Hours Online": what counts as "on the Internet" in today's world is unclear. If I'm writing a book in Google Docs, does that count? If I'm focused on a problem, but I have an IRC channel open in the corner of my screen, does that count? If I'm wa

... (read more)

5A1987dM10y

I used the statistic for my “Everything” block set on LeechBlock, which amounts to interpreting “the Internet” as “the WWW”, but I now realize that maybe time spent reading/writing e-mails and/or on the Facebook Messenger app on my phone should also count.

[-]Josh You10y390

I did it, I did it, I did it, yay!

[-]Matthew_Opitz10y390

I took the survey.

The only part I wasn't sure about how to answer was the P(God) and P(supernatural) part. I put a very low probability on P(supernatural) because it sounded like it was talking about supernatural things happening "since the beginning of the universe" which I took as meaning "after the big bang." But for P(God) I put 50% because, hey, who knows, maybe there was a clockmaker God who set up the big bang?

If one were to interpret these survey responses in a certain way, though, they could seem illogical because one might think that P(supernatural) (which includes God in addition to many other possibilities) would strictly have to have a higher probability than the more-specific P(God). But like I said, I took P(supernatural) as referring to stuff after the big bang, whereas I took P(God) as including any time even before the big bang.

[-]Salemicus10y390

I did the survey. Gadzooks!

[-][anonymous]10y390

Took the survey.

[-]Calecute10y390

I completed the survey.

Yvain, in the "Referrals" section I feel the wording is a little ambiguous in what you should do if you were referred by Overcoming Bias but you've not "Been here since it was started in the Overcoming Bias days". I think you should answer "Referred by a link on another blog or website" on the first one and write "Overcoming Bias" in the second question despite the "other than Overcoming Bias" in it. But I'm not completely confident that this is what you would expect, or if other people would read it the same way.

[-]Username10y390

Took the survey! A few things:

I'm afraid my answer to the singularity start date is going to get thrown out, because I peg it to have started in the past with the start of the limited liability corporation. I know this is non-standard and weird, but it is genuine.
I'm a little disappointed that more of the suggestions from last year's results weren't included. This survey was nowhere near too long and I think that more optional questions (that don't involve outside tests) would add value.
Still frustrated with 'highest degree completed' not being 'highest degree completed or in progress.'
Don't reuse your password from last year! The public ones were all published! And try harder to make your's unique - last year there were a couple duplicates. If you put 'SQUEAMISH OSSIFRAGE', you're doing it wrong.

3TobyBartels10y

Do you really mean that the advent of the LLC marks the Singularity? I would have thought UFAI; the Singularity implies (to me) a level of incomprehensibility (by those before it) that I don't think is really true.

4Username10y

I see the advent of modern corporations as the start of independent agents competing for resources and striving for their own goals. It also is when we started seeing the exponential growth that defines our current age, and while there were many other factors that played into this growth, it's a convenient marker. The standard thought is that the singularity is the moment when the speed of exponential growth outpaces the human ability to process that information in real time. I think that definition is too human-centric, and I'd rather refer to the phenomenon of exponential growth as a longer continuous process. So the formation of LLCs was the start of the Singularity, and we haven't seen the end yet. Like I said, non-standard and weird.

[-]Sysice10y390

Did the survey (a couple days ago).

I wasn't here for the last survey- are the results predominantly discussed here and on Yvain's blog?

3Adele_L10y

Yes, Yvain will write a post about the results here once it is finished. I think historically that has been around the start of the new year.

[-]riceissa10y390

I took the survey.

[-]amcknight10y390

Done! Ahhh, another year another survey. I feel like I did one just a few months ago. I wish I knew my previous answers about gods, aliens, cryonics, and simulators.

[-]Gleb_Tsipursky10y390

Glad to do the survey, and appreciate that LW takes the views of readers seriously, that's great!

[-]Bugmaster10y390

FWIW, I said I "strongly disagree" with Feminism and Social Justice, even though I find their Wikipedia descriptions generally agreeable. I think in the future, it would be good to split those questions into pairs: a) "Do you agree with the stated mission goals of X ?", and b). "Do you agree with the actions of people who identify as X ?"

[-]TheOtherDave10y100

If we're going to bother to ask (b) at all, it's probably best to frame it in a way that doesn't make "some but not all of them" the obvious answer.

For example, perhaps you could identify some groups you consider definitive of Feminism and Social Justice, and we could ask "How often do you agree with $group?" (IIRC, on their own blog Yvain often uses something called jezebel as a metric for what feminists believe.)

[-]oge10y390

I took the survey. Finding a ruler with the correct precision was difficult so I skipped the digit question. Anyone in the Bay Area with the requisite equipment?

6Nornagest10y

If I were doing it I'd just scan an image of my hand in at a high resolution and then use measurement tools in Photoshop or something similar. Should even be possible to do in MS Paint by taking pixel coordinates and doing a little trigonometry. It's the ratio that's important, so it shouldn't matter if the measurements are denominated in pixels or inches. (I didn't do this on my survey because I took it at work.)

0OkamiNoRei10y

I can confirm that the MS Paint method works. As I lack both a scanner and calipers, I just took a picture of my hand with my phone.

[-]westopheles10y390

Survey complete.

[-]roryokane10y390

I took the survey. Though I can’t remember my SAT score, which I know I put on the last survey – I wish I had saved my answers last year.

[-]JohnnyCat10y120

You are probably one of the few people who can identify an exact year when you forgot your SAT scores.

3TobyBartels10y

Hopefully roryokane will remember this year … it may come up on a survey later!

[-]alexgieg10y390

Done.

[-]BlueSun10y390

Competed the survey. Thanks for doing this, the results are always interesting.

[-]Lalartu10y390

Done, without finger question.

[-]UnclGhost10y390

¡He terminado!

[-]ahel10y380

Done :)

EDIT: and +1 to everyone. It took me more doing that than the survey :|

[-]FullMeta_Rationalist10y380

FINISHED. ALL OF IT. \m/ Literally superhuman.

TIL I'm undifferentiated according to the BSRI... huh.

Karma for all, per tradition. <3

- a long time lurker

P.S. You can trashcan the premature submission that answers Part 8's first question with 23200. While revising my predicted date of the singularity, I brushed my keypad's enter (next to the 3) by mistake. ಠ_ಠ

[-]Cyan10y130

Nice choice of username. :-)

[-]lavalamp10y380

Done. Thank you for running these.

[-]JQuinton10y380

Took it.

This is my second year taking the survey. I wish I remembered what my answers were last year so I could see how I've changed.

[-]mattcwilson10y380

Hello, I'm decloaking from lurker status to say that I took the survey.

Calibration question for the Religious Denomination and P(Religion) questions:

Do the terms "believe" and "correct", respectively, in these questions refer strictly to the supernatural elements of a religion (accuracy of creation story, reification of pantheon, etc.)? Or more broadly over its entire catechism?

In other words, if a virtue ethicist were to feel that Floobian morality is pretty darn sound, but not truly believe that Floob herself literally sang the cosmos into existence... would you call that person a Floobist? Or does a point of disagreement constitute disbelief / incorrectness?

Given the recent example of the Pope coming out in favor of science's version of the origins of everything, I think this is a relevant distinction to draw.

3A1987dM10y

I typed “Please taboo “correct”” into the P(Religion) question.

0mattcwilson10y

That would have been a better choice, perhaps. I instead gave a numerical answer to the rephrased question "What is the probability that the supernatural figurehead of your chosen belief system will appear to declare total operational success for your side, in our reality or in any afterlife in which you meaningfully believe?" If that is a reasonable paraphrasing of the average interpretation of the question, I expect a strongly bimodal distribution of answers. Not sure that's useful. I was disappointed the question was not something more like "what is the probability that humanity's far future descendants / FAI / alien modernoanthropologists will generally hold your religious system to have been a net good influence on humanity and worthy of participation by its members?" That is the most charitable interpretation of "correct" I can think of, sans a literal Judgment Day / Cast Party.

-127chaos10y

Huh?

[-]EGI10y380

Survey taken!

Concerning the mental health questions, how do you weight self diagnosed and diagnosed by psychiatrist? Do you think, given the Less Wrong demographic self diagnosis is less or more reliable (intuitively I would tend to more). How should cases like myself answer - diagnosed with asperger by psychiatrist1, two years later diagnosed with ADHD but not asperger by psychiatrist2, several month later diagnosed as neither asperger nor ADHD by psychiatrist3?

[-]bres10y380

I'm new to LW and have been lurking and catching up for a while, but I answered the survey anyway. Working on gathering more ground so I'll be able to increase my interactions soon enough.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong10y380

Completed the survey.

Two issues: I put a very low donation to charity, even though I consider working for the FHI to be a donation in kind.

Second, I messed up the probabilities, sorry, because I could not give any answer to P(simulation) and P(MWI) other than "NAN" (not a number). I can explain that stance in detail if you want.

[-]Stuart_Armstrong10y110

Right, let's try and explain...

Consider either an infinite universe, or better yet, a Tegmark multiverse. In this infinite universe, there will be infinitely many copies of you, and of the world. Some will be run on what we would clearly consider to be simulations (a sci-fi super computer programmed by elegant post humans or bug-eyed monsters). Some would be in places we would consider "real". Other would be in places we might or might not consider to be simulations (eg on a giant game of life board, inside a tower of simulations with no conscious simulation at any level, etc...). Add in dust theories, by which we can consider that we are sequences of events from wildly different space-time zones in the multivese.

Amazingly, we can still make decisions in this setting, by appealing to principle like entropy or artificial induction (ie "induction may or may not work, but if it doesn't work, we can't do anything anyway, so we may as well assume it works"). However, asking "are we a simulation" involves some sort of dividing an infinite number of copies of us (some clearly simulations, some occasionally simulations (see the dust theories) some completely a... (read more)

6Kawoomba10y

We want.

4Stuart_Armstrong10y

Answered here http://lesswrong.com/lw/l5k/2014_less_wrong_censussurvey/bini

[-]isionous10y380

Took the survey. I loved the calibration questions; it takes ~20 times more effort to come up with the confidence level than the answer, and I always feel I learn about myself. I've messed with some calibration question games before and was downright astonished at how well calibrated I was (the irony is not lost on me); but the questions were all in A-vs-B format rather than free form. The A-vs-B format is much easier to appear to be well calibrated.

5TobyBartels10y

Once you choose your answer, you can still calibrate yourself in A vs B form: ask if your answer is correct (A) or incorrect (B).

[-]tut10y380

Taken.

Finger thing is weird. My fingers don't have constant length to the tenth of a millimeter, and holding my hand in the copier for a long time was uncomfortable enough that the fingers probably bent at least two millimeters. So if you really need tenths of a millimeter accuracy, disregard the one that has a result for the right hand and says 'nope' for the left hand.

[-]TheAncientGeek10y380

"Social democrat" and "liberal" have been given almost identical descriptions. Don't know if that's deliberate.

2ChrisHallquist10y

Agreed. I actually looked up tax & spending for UK vs. Scandinavian countries, and they aren't that different. It may not be a good distinction.

5A1987dM10y

But IIRC the way the tax money is spent is very different in the US vs in Scandinavia (and I'd guess the UK is somewhere in between): in the former it's mostly spent on means-tested transfer payments and in the latter is most spent on in-kind services, such as healthcare and education, that anyone can (in principle) avail of.

1tog10y

This fits the UK, which is if anything more in this direction than most European countries. Of note, the 'UK Tories' referred to in the census largely accept this.

[-]L29Ah10y370

taken ^_^

[-]Ishaan10y370

For the future, in the case of multiple choice questions it might be nice to have an "unselect" option. (Some of the questions say "if you don't know leave blank" or similar and then if you accidentally click an option you are forced to choose something)

[-]lmm10y370

Took the survey. I almost missed it since I don't really read Main these days.

Are options 3/4 on the BSRI backwards? To me "occasionally" is rarer than "sometimes".

[-]Elund10y110

To me "occasionally" is rarer than "sometimes".

I think so too. I found that part odd.

[-]eurg10y370

Did it, as every year. Thanks for your work.

[-]Suryc1110y370

Took the survey! Some very interesting questions; I look forward to the analysis.

[-]banx10y370

Survey completed, besides the digit ratio.

[-]AvImd10y370

Did that too.

[-]JohnnyCat10y360

I identify with being "mixed race" far more than any individual race (which feels distinct to me from "other", but it was still the only choice for me).

I learned/confirmed non-zero answers about myself for questions I hadn't previously/strongly considered. This could be considered a "bonus" for taking the survey.

(Finished.)

3Elund10y

Not technically a race, but then again neither is "Hispanic", which keeps getting treated as if it was a race. Race is a social construct anyway, so might as well. I'm a bit surprised "mixed race" didn't occur to me as an option to suggest. It is true that I don't emotionally identify with either of my races, but I don't emotionally identify with "mixed race" either, probably because I wasn't raised in a community of mixed-race individuals and don't know that many mixed-race people. I feel like there isn't really a unique shared culture to unite us. Upon reflection, I've decided that if "mixed race" became available as an option on a future LW survey, I would continue to pick "other", because I really do identify with the human race more than anything else. The word "identify" is key though. If it simply asked what race I am, I would defer to the general consensus for how people should be classified, because I'd assume that's how the survey-writers want us to answer.

2TobyBartels10y

In the social milieu where I live, ‘Hispanic’ is definitely a race. And for that matter, Arabs and South Asians aren't White either. If someone has in mind a classification of human beings in which these are technically not the case, then that's fine, but they should come up with another word for it. The term ‘race’ is highly politically charged, and they will never be understood if they use it in a technical way that conflicts with its social usage.

1Lumifer10y

The social usage of "race" is pretty clear: it is a set of people which look similar (and where the skin color is a very important characteristic in deciding on the degree of similarity).

1Azathoth12310y

No, it is a set of people who have similar ancestry and thus presumable similar features and behaviors (the latter is the part where it shades into non-genetics since it is a combination of nature and nurture). For example, no one considers dark skinned Indians to be "Black". I've also seen it used to refer to tribes since these tend to overlap the above definition.

6satt10y

No, I don't think that quite captures it either. Under your definition, families would be races, but that doesn't accord with the typical "social usage of 'race'". About six months ago, a woman surprised me in a conversation by describing her (very) visibly South Asian boyfriend as "black". I'm sceptical that "no one considers dark skinned Indians to be 'Black'"; I can readily find examples of people categorizing South Asians as black until as recently as 20-30 years ago. It's no longer common (hence my surprise when someone does it) but it's not an utterly unfamiliar usage, either. I notice that all of the concrete examples I can think of are British. Presumably this is a usage difference between Britain and the US. (That the operationalization of "black" varies across time & place is interesting.)

-4Jiro10y

"No one" doesn't literally mean "a number of people which is equal to zero".

5satt10y

I reflected on that before I posted my comment. Here are my thoughts. Even if I read "no one" as "a nonzero but negligible number of people", Azathoth123 is probably still wrong. I can name only one person who's said "black" to me with the meaning "South Asian" in mind, but then I've only met a tiny fraction of all Brits; chances are there are thousands of other people out there using the term in a similar way whom I just haven't met. That this was a relatively frequent usage before 1990 or so makes it all the more likely. (See also "Moslem", which has been almost wholly displaced by "Muslim" in everyday speech here, but which I hear (albeit not that often) from middle-aged and old people, quite often see in old books, and occasionally encounter in more recent texts by non-native writers of English, like this book.) Moreover, it's a bit of a bad habit to write claims which are false when read straightforwardly & literally. It's better to avoid writing things which are only true if read generously, to minimize the risk of planting falsities in people's heads. Qualifiers are not expensive. (If you've ever wondered why I lean on adverbs like "relatively", "occasionally", "rarely", "mostly", "likely", "probably", "almost", "nearly", "hardly", and "presumably" as much as I do, you now know why.) Moreover moreover, asserting not-quite-true things makes room for mischief. If you're arguing for some conclusion C which gets more convincing if your premise P is less qualified, there's a temptation to grab illicit rhetorical power by asserting P too strongly in a plausibly deniable way, gambling on no one noticing; and if someone does flag it, you can just say you weren't really asserting P in its bluntest form, even if that's literally what you did. (I am not saying Azathoth123 consciously did that here, not least because their conclusion — the social meaning of "race" isn't just about appearance — still mostly goes through if you appropriately weaken their premise. I just

0Jiro10y

But this amounts to "it's better to avoid talking the way that pretty much every human being not in a minority of literal-minded Internet users talks in most contexts". This is of course correct, yet it still doesn't change that. And the correct way to respond to someone doing that is to respond when you think they're doing it--not to be uncharitable and interpret every non-literal statement as literal regardless of whether you think it''s a case of that or not . Sure. I'm not arguing that he's right. But "he's wrong even when I interpret him charitably" is not a reason to interpret him uncharitably.

0satt10y

Which I also agree with! Ceteris paribus, would it not be better if people were less keen to assert literal falsities in debates about facts? I do of course give people more leeway on this in most contexts. If someone says something that's literally false in a face-to-face conversation, but their intended claim is clear and basically accurate, I'm unlikely to bother contradicting them. But we are in fact talking about something written on Less Wrong, and I'm OK with applying a higher standard here. I can parse that but I don't understand the point it's making. For whatever it's worth, I think there was a fair chance Azathoth123 was doing it unconsciously out of habit. (They have something of a track record of saying things I find incredible, apparently completely guilelessly.) And the effect of doing it can be pretty much the same, regardless of intention, so there's a reason to flag when someone's engaging in the behaviour even if there's no objective evidence of mischievous intent. (Plus, again, this is LW, not a live chat where people have to compose sentences in real time, so why not exercise higher standards?) But "he's wrong even when I interpret him charitably" drains the force from an objection of the form "that's an uncharitable interpretation". If someone's wrong under both available interpretations, they're just wrong; why not respond as such?

2Lumifer10y

Actually, it does. Literally.

0Jiro10y

Normal human speech isn't literal. Just because someone failed to include qualifiers like "most" or "as a rule" doesn't mean that a statement which is without such qualifiers should be read as unqualified. "No one" as used by actual human beings in this context doesn't literally mean "zero".

1Lumifer10y

In which sense are you using the word "literally" in your posts? Notice the difference in two sentences. One of them is correct and the other one is wrong. "No one" doesn't usually mean "a number of people which is equal to zero". "No one" doesn't literally mean "a number of people which is equal to zero".

-1Jiro10y

You are misparsing the sentence. "No one" doesn't mean "zero", as it would mean if taken in a literal manner.

6A1987dM10y

You want to rephrase that sentence, as it's very easy to misparse the way Lumifer did.

2Neo10y

"No one" literally means exactly that.

-4[anonymous]10y

Yeah, I get the impression that most ordinary people define people as white or not based on if they have a white-seeming appearance and culture. This is more evidence for the socially constructed aspect of race.

-2Lumifer10y

Are you sure doctors (of the medical kind) agree?

3A1987dM10y

EDIT: Brief googling couldn't confirm either of the statements marked by “IIUC”, so take them with a huge grain of salt. Also, “no”, “no-one” etc. in the penultimate paragraph aren't meant 100% literally -- no doubt some people say and do lots of weird stuff. Assume for the sake of argument that in Northern Ireland certain medically relevant alleles are much more common among Protestants than among Catholics or vice versa (not terribly unlikely, given that IIUC Protestants are mainly of Anglo-Saxon ancestry and Catholics are mainly of Gaelic ancestry). Would that make Protestatism and Catholicism not social constructs? Or, the fact that people with different ancestries have different genotypes and phenotypes is not a social construct, but that's just the motte. The fact that you write on the census which of those groups you're in, they tend to live on different neighbourhoods, not interbreed, have distinctive cultures, have quotas in universities, etc., is the bailey. (Here in Italy, IIUC the alleles for blond hair mostly originate from Germanic immigrants in the middle ages, and probably correlate with all kinds of other genes; but blonds and brunets freely interbreed, there's no such thing as a blond church or Germanic-Italian music or a blond school or Germanic-Italian studies departments, no-one is ever accused of acting brunet, no-one refrains from going to a festival because it's a brunet people thing, there's no blog titled Stuff Brunet People Like, IIRC we aren't asked for our hair colour on the census, and it wouldn't occur to anyone to figure out the percentage of blonds in a university.) So I'd say we have two correlated but distinct concepts, race2 which is a social construct, and race1 which isn't except insofar as race2 reduces intermarriages which would otherwise dilute race1 over time to some extent.

0Lumifer10y

If we're taking about the usage of the word "race" then there are many possible meanings. Generally speaking, the proper usage depends on the context and on the aims of the speaker. Certainly, some people use the word "race" to refer to social constructs -- but that's not the issue. The issue is whether race is a valid biological construct -- and many people say no.

1satt10y

It seems to me there's not just one issue here; the conversation has drifted from one to another in a rather ad hoc way. Whether race is a valid biological construct is different from the issue raised above ("Are you sure doctors (of the medical kind) agree [that race is a social construct]?"), which itself doesn't, to my eye, address Elund's original comment ("Race is a social construct anyway").

4Lumifer10y

Let's cut to the chase. The issue is whether there are genetically similar populations with some phenotype features which are important and significantly different from other populations. IQ is the classic example. We are talking here in purely biological terms.

1satt10y

There are certainly populations with higher within-population genetic similarity than between-population genetic similarity, and which differ significantly in IQ and other important phenotypic features. It presumably follows because of reductionism that most of those phenotypic differences, including those in IQ, are mostly biological; big differences in IQ are probably manifestations of differences in brains, and brains are biology. (I'm assuming the referents of "We are talking here in purely biological terms" are differences in IQ and other phenotypic features...?) (Seems to me this issue too is pretty distant from the remark that kicked things off. It's hard for me to avoid the impression that "cut to the chase" really means "ride a personal hobby-horse" here.)

3Lumifer10y

Well, speaking empirically, the phrase "race is a social construct" is pretty often followed by "therefore all races are the same in all important ways". "Social construct" implies an arbitrary choice -- our society decided to split humanity into races this way, but another society might do it in an entirely different way and all such ways are equally valid, which is to say, there are no underlying "real" differences. It's not that it is a personal hobby-horse, it's just that I have some experience in watching similar conversations develop.

1satt10y

I'm now more sure you're riding a hobby-horse. I'd better explain why. Me too. Which is probably why I had a hunch that, from the start, you pattern matched Elund to the kind of person who says things like "all races are the same in all important ways" — because you'd observed such people before — in spite of Elund not having said that. That hunch now seems to be confirmed. That pattern matching would make sense to me if, say, in the context of an argument about race & IQ, Elund had started insisting "race is socially constructed so racial IQ differences can't exist haha I win!" as a desperate gimmick to shut down the argument. But the context wasn't a fraught debate like that; Elund's "Race is a social construct anyway" was an aside to explain why they were content with someone treating "mixed race" or "Hispanic" as racial categories, which doesn't sound like a mind-killed person invoking "uh uh uh it's a social construct!" to evade an argument. So the way you responded to Elund (asking a pointed but not especially relevant question about what doctors think; intimating that Elund was doing an intellectually dishonest post-modernist two-step; asking a question which falsely implied Elund said race wasn't a useful concept; and dragging IQ (hitherto unmentioned) into the conversation) didn't seem consistent with a dispassionate correction. It looked a lot more like taking a hobby-horse out for a canter. Reviewing the argument, I'm not sure I could come up with any empirical question about race where the two of you would disagree on the answer!

3Lumifer10y

Mea culpa, though I find pattern matching to be a useful tool. The reason that it's useful is that it often works -- though not always, of course. The whole argument in this subthread wasn't particularly focused -- one notable diversion was into the meaning of "socially constructed" which Elund seems to understand very widely. No, I don't think I went this far -- I didn't and I don't believe Elund showed any intellectual dishonesty. Oh, but I lay no claim to being a dispassionate corrector :-D I have preferences, tastes, opinions, aesthetics, etc. all of which colour my posts and affect my responses. I am not even above -- oh, horrors! -- periodically doing things purely for their amusement value.

0satt10y

Yeah, had the pattern match been correct I would've said nothing. I'm glad to hear that. (I continue to think your comment would've planted the idea in some readers' heads, regardless of intent, but since I've made my view clear and you indicate a lack of intent on your part, I'll just agree to disagree.) I've noticed! You're entitled to those. I'm entitled to highlight when they're fuelling a dubious argument.

0Elund10y

Supposing someone wanted to split humanity into arbitrary races based on actual genetics (which is not how the concept of race originally started because genetics wasn't known at the time), it would make sense for most races to be African, since Africa has far more human genetic diversity than all the other continents combined do. The reason races are delineated the way they are now is due to social reasons. (It could possibly make sense when you consider the phenotype though, but due to the outgroup homogeneity bias, I have some doubts.) Still, regardless of where you set the boundaries between races, there will be average biological differences between them (provided you don't do something biologically ridiculous like classifying whites and Asians as the same race but then classifying their half-white/half-Asian children as a different race).

0Lumifer10y

You're using a definition of "social construct" under which the word "heaps" is a social construct. Sure, given this definition race is a social construct, too, along with a rather long list of most everything. However I think your interpretation of "social construct" is atypical.

-4Elund10y

I'm just using it to mean things that are constructed socially. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/social+construct

1A1987dM10y

Race2 is not a valid biological construct. Certain people by “race” mean that, and call race1 other words e.g. “ancestry”. Sure, there also are people who say that race1 is not a valid biological construct. Bu then again, there also are people who say that Elvis is not dead.

3Azathoth12310y

Unfortunately, the former are more likely to get taken seriously than the latter.

1Lumifer10y

The former are perfectly capable of getting those of a different opinion into a lot of trouble. The latter aren't.

0wedrifid10y

I expect that doctors (of the medical kind) would agree as much or more than the average person. Most of the 'Doctor' role is oriented toward enforcing (or following) social norms. They also have relatively little professional incentive to have beliefs about race that match reality (and more than enough compartmentalisation capability to ignore the occasional diagnostic relevance of race). Further, since the medical profession relies on far more arbitrary social constructs than race (for example: Most of the DSM) I'm not sure whether their considering something a social construct should be considered a criticism. I'd be much more interested what doctors (of the scientific kind, preferably of a relevant field) say.

0Lumifer10y

I think that would depend on the context and on how the question is phrased. Professionally, doctors know quite well that race matters -- e.g. some blood tests have different acceptable ranges depending on your race, the prenatal testing of pregnant women depends on their ancestry, etc. I think academia is much more politically correct than the medical profession.

1hyporational10y

There's a pretty big gap between what doctors tell the public and what they tell each other. There's a nation wide, low profile, supposedly secure internet forum in Finland for doctors only. Identities are checked by a reliable system involving official registries. For some reason it's used mostly by senior doctors, many in higher positions, who happen to know each other, didn't grow with the internet and seem to have discussions with no regard to public image whatsover. Political mind kill seems to stand strong there, and some opinions regarding culture, nationality, race, religion and so on are interesting to say the least from the perspective of political correctness. Even the N-word and the R-word seem to be used quite liberally. Needless to say the same people are masters of PR at their day job.

-1wedrifid10y

Note that if it is a site for doctors from Finland then the 'N-word' use is still shocking but far less shocking than if it were in the United States. "Bad words" are actually an example of pure social constructs and second-hand arbitrary negative associations can be expected to be weaker than first hand arbitrary negative associations. (And if it were a forum in China it would mean even less.)

-2Lumifer10y

Does Finland have a political correctness problem? The Swedish minority is perfectly fine, and the Russians come and (having bought everything in sight) go. Are there a lot of third-world immigrants?

-8Azathoth12310y

-2wedrifid10y

You could be right. Now I'm more curious.

-2Elund10y

My point is that the human population doesn't divide neatly into discrete categories called "races". There are of course genetic differences, but human variation is a continuum. The way people decide boundaries between races is an arbitrary social one.

[-]Kawoomba10y110

Sorites paradox. Heaps exist regardless.

-4Elund10y

Heaps can be said to exist because of vagueness in the definition of what precisely makes something a heap. Race is the same way, which is why it is a social construct. I'm not saying that "heap" and "race" are not useful terms. They do correlate with actual differences, but they are social constructs because they are convenient simplifications to help us describe phenomena. Also, in case you're wondering, the reason I didn't object to "mixed race" being treated as a race wasn't because I thought mixed-race people are genetically distinct enough to be put in a separate category, but because the phrasing in the survey (asking about what we identify as, not to mention including "Hispanic" as an option) implies that the survey-writers are mainly interested in race as an indicator of self-identity and/or culture rather than genetics. Race is still a social construct even when you use a cultural/identity definition, for reasons that might be more obvious. This was a definition I had in mind (alongside the biological one) when I said "race is a social construct anyway". By default I do tend to use the biological definition though, simply because this is what most people seem to do, e.g. an Asian girl adopted as a baby and raised by whites in an all-white community is still considered Asian. Also, "other" isn't necessarily going to feel like a satisfactory answer for all of us. Including "mixed race" as an option to a race question is like including "atheism" as a result to a religion question. Atheism is not technically a religion, but it's nice to include an option to account for it anyway. The data wouldn't be as informative otherwise.

5Lumifer10y

If "heap" is a social construct, so is all language, basically, and then everything is a social construct. Sigh. Maybe this will help -- hot off the bit presses: Plus, you might be interested in the wonderfully named Troll's Truisms:

6Elund10y

It is true that all language is socially constructed, but I was trying to draw attention to how "race" is especially subjective. Many linguistic terms are much more precise. A "species" for example refers to related individuals who reproduce among themselves, producing viable offspring. There is still some room for ambiguity, but it is less than what you get with "race". Besides, what's wrong with the idea that all language is socially constructed? It is possible to believe that without falling prey to the fallacy of grey. I would personally prefer to use the term "better informed" rather than "more real". Hypothetically, if both theories turned out to be completely false, and supposing we learned of that but still had no idea what the actual truth was, it wouldn't be certain which of them is more "real", but it would be relatively clearer which one had stronger evidence supporting it at the time. To give a different example, if we knew that one of the two theories is 100% true but aren't told which one it is, it would be reasonable for us to think it is far more likely to be the theory based on scientific evidence (i.e. the theory that actually aligns with the scientific definition of a theory as being a coherent group of tested general propositions, commonly regarded as correct, that can be used as principles of explanation and prediction for a class of phenomena:).

0satt10y

Right conclusion, wrong reason. (The first sentence strikes me as incorrect all by itself. I could still call certain things heaps even if I had a sharp definition of a heap.) Race is a social construct because genetic data underdetermine racial categories. Expanding: although knowledge of human population structure rules out (or at least makes implausible) many potential racial classifications, many other classifications are compatible with it. Therefore an analyst has lots of latitude to decide which genetic differences between groups constitute races. (The continuousness/blurriness of human genetic variation is mostly a red herring, though it does sharpen the under-determination issue and make it more obvious.)

0Elund10y

Sorry, what I meant was, "Heaps as they are currently defined can be said to exist because of vagueness in the definition of what precisely makes something a heap." They can also be said to not exist because of vagueness in the definition of what precisely makes something a heap. However, it is extremely difficult if not impossible for any definition to have absolutely no ambiguity at all, and even if that was possible, language can still be considered a social construct in the sense that linguistic terms are constructed socially. Vague terms have an extra layer of social construction though, because rather than just giving a term to a phenomenon, they also introduce a simplification. This makes the constructed aspect more obvious. I guess I didn't word my above quote very well, since I didn't mention that the social construction of all language itself is also enough to make "heaps" a social construct.

0satt10y

That too sounded confusing/wrong to me on a first reading, but are you saying that because the definition of a heap is vague, there are multiple feasible definitions of a heap, so some people (using one definition) would call a candidate heap a heap and other people (using another definition) would say it isn't a heap? (Assuming I've paraphrased you correctly, I think my formulation is clearer.) I'd agree with that. Almost all terms introduce a simplification, not just the vague ones. Vagueness does often make social construction more obvious, but for a more mundane reason than simplification: vague terms have a wider array of meanings than non-vague terms, so people are more likely to notice the multiplicity of ways to define a term when it's vague.

0Elund10y

Not that they are necessarily using multiple definitions, but the common definitions themselves do not specify an exact range in quantity in which a cluster of things could be considered a heap. Two people could disagree about whether something is a heap despite using the same vague definition of "heap". They may be comparing the candidate heap relative to things that they have experienced being called heaps in the past. I suppose you could still treat this as being a difference in their personal definitions of "heap". However, I don't think that if pressed to define "heap", that people would be likely to state an explicit quantity range. They would most likely give vague qualitative definitions. The same person may even use inconsistent definitions at different times or forget to include certain aspects that they would consider to be important defining characteristics. People don't normally think in terms of definitions when classifying things. They usually just classify based on what feels correct, and definitions are after-the-fact attempted explanations of their classifications. Doesn't the introduction of a simplification itself give a term some vagueness, because then you don't know the details of the relevant characteristic, just a qualitative judgment? For "heaps", the simplification is one that keeps the exact quantity obscured while providing a qualitative description instead. Even if you had a different quantity term that, unlike "heap", didn't have fuzzy boundaries, it could still be considered vague in a different sense if multiple quantities could fulfill its definition (assuming an exact quantity really did exist in reality). It would certainly at least be considered somewhat ambiguous. For example, the category "integers" has seemingly clear boundaries, but calling an unknown number an integer is still vague if it doesn't express all the relevant information. Yes, terms can be vague in that way too.

0satt10y

Ahhh, I think I understand. Yes, that makes sense. Yes, although (as you suggest) that's a different kind of vagueness: vagueness as a definition's inclusiveness vs. vagueness as uncertainty about the definition itself.

0wedrifid10y

Beware The Fallacy Of The .

2Elund10y

You're ignoring the part where I said human variation is a continuum. The fallacy of grey is where people deny the existence of the continuum. Also, I did mention evidence about people's varying definitions of the "white race" to illustrate how people do in fact use arbitrary social reasons to decide the boundaries between races.

-1Lumifer10y

So, let me repeat. Are you sure doctors (of the medical kind) agree?

0Elund10y

It depends on how much they've thought about it. For instance, consider the "white race". A neo-Nazi on Stormfront would likely say that "white" refers only to people of 100% European ancestry, excluding Jews. On the other extreme, some people use it interchangeably with "Caucasian", which, according to its dictionary definition, refers to people of European, North African, Middle Eastern, or Indian ancestry.

-3Lumifer10y

Maybe the problem is with terminology. Let's taboo "race" and talk about "gene pools" or "genetic clusters". Will you still say that these are not useful concepts?

2Elund10y

I never said race wasn't a useful concept. I specifically said in my earlier post: . I think my initial post that started this discussion may have been a source of misunderstanding. When I called race a social construct, I wasn't trying to say that race is a useless concept, but instead indicate that it could be useful as a cultural/identity concept. Initially when I talked about "mixed race" and "Hispanic" not technically being races, I was defining race according to the mainstream definition that treats race as a genetically distinct group of people, since that is my default. However, during the part where I talked about how Hispanics are often treated as if they were a race, I was undergoing a shift toward thinking about race as a cultural identity regardless of genetics, which then led me to the statement that race is a social construct. I meant it in a similar way to what people mean when they say that gender is a social construct. When people say that, they're not implying that gender is a useless concept, but that it is a personal subjective choice of identity. Significantly, I then spent the rest of my post talking about race as a personal choice of identity. The idea that gender is a social construct is a pretty uncontroversial one, as far as I can tell. People seem to be somewhat less likely to say the same thing about race though, probably because "race" as a cultural term doesn't have a satisfactory parallel term to refer to biology the way "gender" has "sex". It didn't matter for me in practice though. I thought of race as a social construct regardless of whether it was approached from a biological or cultural perspective, which is why I didn't feel a need to distinguish between the two in my statement. However, subsequent comments drawing attention to its biological validity (e.g. would doctors agree?) pushed me to address my point underlying my passive implication that the biological aspect is also a social construct, which then skews the discussion

1Azathoth12310y

Part of the reason is that if you restrict to the population of the United States they are (more-or-less) a separate genetic cluster. (Yes, that cluster doen't perfectly correspond to the official definition of Hispanic but a better term doesn't exist). Only because anyone who dares to point out the obvious truth that it isn't gets called a "sexist transphobe" and unfit for polite society.

-1Elund10y

Well, I wasn't restricting to the population of the United States. Anyway, race is still a socially constructed identity. This is apparent with mixed-race people who often identify with one race more than another based on how they were raised, how they look, how other people identify them, and whether they act more like a stereotypical member of one of their races than another. The race they identify most with might not be the one that makes up the largest proportion in their ancestry. My understanding is that gender is specifically used to refer to the socially constructed identities. Biological sex differences get lumped under sex rather than gender, which is why people can believe in the social construct of gender while also believing that biology contributes in some degree to stereotypical gender roles. I'm not an expert on gender though, so I should probably leave it to someone else to debate you on this point.

0Azathoth12310y

Is the term "Hispanic" even used outside the US and places imitating the US? That's the claim made by "gender theorists". In practice it's used to refer to any sex differences they can claim to be socially constructed without seeming completely ridiculous. Nearly all of said differences are almost certainly largely biological.

2A1987dM10y

It's used on the Survey (which is how this discussion ever sprang up in the first place) even though non-Americans also take it. (What will Spaniards pick? I'm gonna go check what they did last year... EDIT: three picked “White (non-Hispanic)”, one picked “White (Hispanic)” and one picked “Other”, so they mostly went by the de facto definition rather than the official one.) (IIRC I once classified myself as “Latin” on some kind of survey because I assumed it referred to anyone with Romance-speaking ancestry.)

3Azathoth12310y

Because Yvain is imitating US usage.

3A1987dM10y

I know. But people outside the US also take the survey, so your “if you restrict to the population of the United States” upthread doesn't apply.

[-]Iksorod10y360

Took the survey! Even the digit ration thing! I hope enough people did that for it to be useful.

[-]Adam Zerner10y360

Done!

I really like the calibration questions and would like to see more of them.
Where were the questions on things like Newcomb's paradox?
I'd like the option to enter (rough) confidence intervals, and I'd think they'd be useful for analysis.
Why not expand the survey? People could always leave stuff out that they don't want to answer.

[-][anonymous]10y360

Took the survey. Thanks for the karma, everyone.

[-][anonymous]10y360

Finished the survey! I'm curious to see what the results will be. Finding my digit ratio was interesting. I expected crazier questions.

[This comment is no longer endorsed by its author]Reply

5Elund10y

When I first saw that there was going to be a digit ratio question, my first thought was that the survey was going to ask us to estimate our digit ratios, estimate our confidence in our estimates, and then measure the true ratios to see how far off we were. :P

[-]ancientcampus10y360

Mission Accomplished.

I definitely want to see the results! For reference, 2013: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jj0/2013_survey_results/

I wonder if we could get a chart with the data matched up over time? Chart community changes over time?

[-]JStewart10y360

Count me surveyed.

[-]scotherns10y360

Survey done!

[-]DMStewart10y360

Took the survey! That last one was a hard because I didn't have a ruler :( Also, out of curiosity - has anyone ever had the same Public and Private key before?

0[anonymous]10y

Yes, last year. I expect with 75% confidence that it will happen again this year.

[-]Raelifin10y360

Survey completed! Making a note here: Huge success!

[-]SaxophonesAndViolets10y350

Uh, did the survey a few days ago. Bit late to the punch, I suppose.

[-]Joshua_Blaine10y350

The ritual has been completed. I await my karmic reword, as per tradition.

There was a lot of good variance in the calibration questions (for me), so nice job thinking of them! Gur ivqrb tnzr dhrfgvba va cnegvphyne fhecevfrq zr jura V ybbxrq hc gur nafjre, nf rira nf n uhtr Zvarpensg sna V unqa'g ernyvmrq vg orng bhg frpbaq cynpr ol 3 zvyyvba.

Also, in a fit of needless cleverness, I made my public key decryptable (by my private key) into a plaintext message that works as an extra layer of identification in the case that I win the money.

[-]Adele_L10y350

Did it! Even the digit ratio question! (which is why I am taking it relatively late)

Unsurprisingly, my digit ratio is pretty feminine (0.969 averaged over both hands).

[-]Emily10y350

Could I suggest posting a link to the survey in Discussion as well? I hardly ever check Main any more, and I don't think I'm the only one.

[-]Unknowns10y340

I took the survey.

[-]jkadlubo10y340

For the first time I did it!

And want to thank the person who included "homemaker" in occupations list.

[-]badtheatre10y340

I took the whole thing! That's two years in a row.

[-]fortyeridania10y340

Done, and I did many (but not all) of the extra credit questions.

[-]asr10y340

Did the survey. Mischief managed.

[-]OrganicDrone10y340

I completed the survey.

Without an accompanying glossary, my formulation consistently lurked in the critical analysis of the question. At one point I laughed under my breath pondering which resource would rusticate alternative interpretations. A modern Attorney, or Socrates himself!

[-]jefftk10y340

Who do you currently live with most of the time? (Alone, with parents or other guardians, with partner and/or children, with roommates.)

My house is currently: me, wife, daughter, sister, another sister, mother, father. I put "with partner and/or children", but that doesn't seem like a good fit.

Please give the score you got on your most recent PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC IQ test

This makes me feel like I should have an IQ number to put here? Is that a thing people usually have?

Place your right hand firmly on the plate of a photocopier or scanner with fingers straight.

I used a picture of my hand. We're just going for ratios, so that should be fine, and it's a lot easier.

5TobyBartels10y

Maybe there should be an ‘extended family’ option.

4A1987dM10y

Only if you're sure your hand is perpendicular to the line of sight of your camera (and not too close to it), otherwise you might get foreshortening effects.

0jefftk10y

Yes, the key thing being perspective. Simple angling is fine, because we just care about ratios, but the closer your hand is to the lens the more angling will distort the measurement through perspective.

[-]Conscious_Machine10y340

Took the survey - looking forward to the results!

[-]davidrhausner10y330

Took the survey! Glad to help out.

[-]nottombrown10y330

Completed. Look forward to the results.

[-]marchdown10y330

And... done. I would like to point out that X-Risk question may be confusing when skimming. P(X-Risk) looks as if it were asking for probability of catastrophe coming to pass, but the explanations spells out that the probability of humanity successfully avoiding catastrophe should be entered.

[-]davidps10y330

Survey taken. I agree with others' points re: the potential inaccuracy of the BSRI, although I also presume that if most other people are considering the fact that their interactions with partners / lovers is dramatically different than those with strangers / colleagues, much of the error in the test will be filtered out. For future tests, it may be helpful to put a qualification on the LW part of the test, asking people to self-identify whether they were taking an average of all interactions, or mostly using those with SOs, etc.

[-]RobinZ10y330

Completed survey less annoying question that required using an annoying scanner that makes annoying noises (I am feeling annoyed). Almost skipped it, but realized that the attitudes of ex-website-regulars might be of interest.

[-]Vivificient10y330

I have taken the survey, including the digit ratio question.

Since there was a box to be included in the SSC survey, I just a little bit disappointed there wasn't a question for favourite SSC post to go with the favourite LessWrong post question.

[-]Zaq10y330

Did the survey, except digit ratio due to lack of precision measuring devices.

[-]Alejandro110y320

Took the survey. As usual, immense props to Yvain for the dedication and work he puts into this.

[-]WingedViper10y320

Done. Though I feel guilty about skipping a few of the more involved questions.

[-]jdgalt10y320

I did the survey.

I felt that I had to leave blank some of the questions that ask for a probability number, because no answer that complies with the instructions would be right. For instance, I consider the "Many Worlds" hypothesis to be effectively meaningless, since while it does describe a set of plausible alleged facts, there is, as far as I know, no possible experiment that could falsify it. ("Supernatural" is also effectively meaningless, but for a different reason: vagueness. "Magic", to me, describes only situations where Clarke's Third Law applies. And so forth.)

I would like to participate in a deeper discussion of the idea of the Singularity, but don't know if that's welcome on LW. I want to attack the idea on several levels: (1) the definition of it, which may be too vague to be falsifiable; (2) the definition of intelligence -- I don't think we're talking about a mere chess-playing computer, but it's not clear to me whether Minsky's criteria are sufficient; (3) if those first two points are somehow nailed down, then I'm not at all sure that a machine intelligence is desirable, and certainly I'd hesitate to connect one to hardware with e... (read more)

6Elund10y

You should be able to find a lot of info about the Singularity (and proposed ways to influence its outcome) in MIRI publications and LW posts. If you want to have further discussions about the Singularity you can comment below the relevant LW posts. It's supposed to refer to the crease at the base of the fingers.

6Elund10y

Why was I downvoted? Was that from you, jdgalt? Were you hoping to have the Singularity discussion here instead of below another post? If so that wasn't clear to me from your above comment, since you were asking about whether it was welcome on LW, and you seemed to be going off on a tangent (particularly with your latter two points). Also, you didn't seem like you possessed much of the background knowledge regarding intelligence explosion and friendly/unfriendly AI, so I thought you would find it helpful for me to point you toward some relevant sources that might answer your questions, not to mention provide more general information on the topic. Of course, if you're not interested in general information I'd be willing to address your specific questions. Sorry, I'm not trying to be confrontational, I just want to understand what I did wrong so that I can better improve the quality of my comments, as well as clear up any misunderstandings.

8Vulture10y

It seems that I was the one who downvoted you, but now I don't remember why. I've retracted it for now, since I don't see anything wrong with the comment. May have just been a clicking error.

5Elund10y

Thank you.

3[anonymous]10y

I agree with this position, and it was apparently controversial on the LW-TelAviv mailing list. You really ought to back that up.

-2jdgalt10y

I'm not sure what I could post here that would back that up: it requires some economics knowledge. I can refer you to good economics blogs such as Marginal Revolution and Cafe Hayek, or to Mises' Human Action. It was MR that sent me here to LW in the first place.

5[anonymous]10y

Austrianism and "economics knowledge" do not go together. Science is built on empiricism, not on deliberately ignoring data because your ideology tells you there can be no empirical examination of human beings.

-3Lumifer10y

I am sorry, and on which basis do you make sweeping claims about schools of economic thought?

3ike10y

On the meaningless of MWI, you may find this post useful. It cleared up a lot of points for me.

2Bugmaster10y

It didn't do much for me :-( If there's no way for me to figure out whether there's a chocolate cake inside of the Sun or not, then I might as well assume there's no cake, because this makes the math easier. I see MWI vs. no MWI the same way, but apparently that's the wrong answer...

0ike10y

What about the question of whether something not in your light cone still exists? Also, assuming something to make the math easier does not mean that it is meaningless. It may have little utility to calculate it if your utility function only counts things that affect you physically, although you'd still need the general rules for priors for things that can only be tested long term but influence decisions made short term.

0jdgalt10y

I think I see what you are trying to say, but I don't think the Boltzmann Cake Theory is comparable to Many Worlds. In the Boltzmann Cake case, it may be impossible to physically test the theory (though I don't conclusively assume so -- there could well be some very subtle effect on the Sun's output that would facilitate such a test), but the question of fact it raises is still of objective fact. But the truth or falsity of the Many Worlds Theory can only exist in a reference frame which spans the entire conceptual space in which the many worlds would have to coexist. And I don't believe such a frame can exist. The very fabric of logic itself requires a space-time in which to exist; without one (or extending beyond one) its very postulates become open to doubt.

[-]malenkiy_scot10y310

Done.

How real is the research on digit ratio? (On bogus statistics-based research see, for example: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble).

In any case, can you please explain how you plan to use digit ratio data?

[-]JoachimSchipper10y310

I, too, took the survey. (And promptly forgot to claim my karma; oh well.)

[-]blogospheroid10y310

Done. Foof that was long...

[-]timujin10y310

Done.

Also, concerning the psychological states. I was diagnosed with a certain something, but the results were largely inconclusive. Chose "was diagnosed".

[-]Elund10y300

From what people have said, it seems that after the survey was posted a new question was added about our favorite LW post. Were there any others?

(Posted as a top-level comment at the request of TobyBartels)

[-]Larks10y300

I also filled in the survey! Hurrah for laboureous data gathering.

[-]Vaegrim10y300

My only two comments are one I made on that post inviting lurkers to post and this one, but I did take last years survey for what it's worth. Though I don't recall my answers to last year's survey, I suspect they line up pretty well with this year's. I wonder if there's any potential in the data to track how respondents answers change over time.

[-]taryneast10y290

yay - done.

[-]Richard_Kennaway10y290

A lot of people seem to have had some trouble with measuring digit ratio. I tried the scanner method, but the fingertips were too far away from the scanner bed to be in focus. I also had a transparent plastic bag between my hand and the scanner, to avoid leaving a handprint on the plate, which probably didn't help. So I used a ruler instead. Which I would have used to measure the scan anyway, so why go via the scan?

[-]Desrtopa10y280

Completed. I'm concerned that the "mixed" options for religious background are concealing meaningful demographic information. For instance, my parents are of Christian and Jewish parentage, so I chose the "mixed" option because I do not consider my cultural heritage to be predominantly Jewish or Christian. A person with Hindu and Muslim parents would have the same answer, but a very different cultural background. Perhaps in future it might be better to use a "check all that apply" format?

[-]shirisaya10y280

I took the survey and answered every question. As usual, I found my ability to correctly answer the calibration questions comically bad . . . but hopefully well calibrated.

[-]OkamiNoRei10y280

Took the survey, and it made me realize I'd never bothered to register an account here before now. The situation has been corrected.

[-]Sinal10y280

Done, but I'm afraid the fingertip measurements were not very precise

[-]BarbaraB10y280

Partial success. I meant to fill in the survey completely, but my internet froze at calibration question 5. In an attempt to revive it, I pressed Enter, which resulted in submission of the incomplete survey. Now what ?

8TobyBartels10y

Take it again, and report here (which you pretty much already did) that there is an incomplete survey submitted just before or just after calibration question 5, and it should not be counted. ETA: Not that I know what you're officially supposed to do, but that's what many people so far did do.

[-]stripey710y280

The political ideology question seems to equate libertarian with libertarian capitalist, and communist with totalitarian There's no option for libertarian communism/socialism.

Also, the moral philosophy question seems to assume one believes moral questions have truth values. "None" isn't given as a choice.

6blacktrance10y

"None" is presumably included in "Other", though next year it should probably be a separate option.

5TobyBartels10y

There were ‘left-libertarian’ and ‘anarchist’.

0stripey710y

True, but from the definitions I found on this site, those aren't quite the same.

3Leonhart10y

The first option reads "Moral statements don't express propositions and can neither be true nor false." I'm curious what else you wanted. The second clause without the first?

2Lumifer10y

That looks like an oxymoron to me.

-3TobyBartels10y

It looks that way to you because you either don't know what libertarianism is or don't know what communism and socialism are (or both). Of course, that's too snarky. But people (particularly in the USA, less so in Europe) often don't understand the breadth of these positions. In the 19th century (defining people by the words they used to describe themselves), most libertarians were socialists, and many socialists were libertarians. While the main branches of both movements have grown apart, there are still people who identify as both. Anyway, you should look it up.

3Lumifer10y

Too snarky is OK. The problem is that it's wrong :-P In the XIX century libertarians didn't exist. Do you mean the anarcho-socialist cluster -- Kropotkin, Bakunin, anarcho-syndicalists and such? Yes, they tried to meld individual freedom with collectivism and were popular for a while. But I would argue that their basic approach was incoherent and they pretty clearly have failed. While both contemporary communistm/socialism and libertarianism might point to them as historical predecessors, I doubt either would be willing to embrace them fully.

3TobyBartels10y

I'm talking about the people who called themselves libertarians in the 19th century. The libertarian socialists of today are their intellectual descendents. They exist, and they invented the word ‘libertarian’ (in a political context), and there is no use pretending that they aren't real or that it makes no sense to apply that word to them.

0Lumifer10y

OK, I take back my original comment. While I still don't think "libertarian communism/socialism" is a coherent framework or a meaningful expression nowadays, clearly some people prefer that name for their own political philosophy and that's fine. I guess "anarchists" has the wrong connotations ;-)

[-]dreilopz10y270

I took the survey. I was reminded by Brienne's post today at Facebook. Thanks for running the survey.

[-]hylleddin10y270

Survey Complete!

[-]Acidmind10y270

Did the entire survey in the nick of time.

I'm very thankful for the humiliating experience of racking my brain to come up with plausible sounding reasons for why the answers to the calibration questions should be one thing or another, trying to lower my certainties so that I felt that surely I couldn't be falling for that old overconfidence bias again, finishing the survey, and looking up the answers on wikipedia afterwards. Now that we have ten widely different questions I really can't rationalize setting Russia as the fourth most populated country with 55% subjective certainty.

At least I got the darn norse god right.

[-]fustruly10y270

Taken. Thanks go out to Brienne for posting about it on FB!

[-]Richard_Kennaway10y270

Nine of the questions ask which of various options you "identify with": country, race, gender, political category, moral philosophy, political category (subdivided), effective altruism, gender again, and meta-ethics. I am unclear about this concept, and for the purpose of making a choice, mentally replaced it by respectively "reside in long-term", "are", "are", "believe", etc. Would such rephrasings have changed anyone's answers to any of the questions?

"Identify with" reminds me of the Discworld's Captain Carrot Ironfoundersson, who is a six-foot-six human who "identifies as" a dwarf, and who is accepted as such by the dwarves, even though everyone, including him, knows he's human. I don't know Terry Pratchett's thinking behind the character, but Carrot strikes me as a reductio ad absurdum of the concept.

[-]Nornagest10y170

I don't know Terry Pratchett's thinking behind the character, but Carrot strikes me as a reductio ad absurdum of the concept.

I don't think it's a reductio. Actually, I think it's almost the opposite; one of Pratchett's usual schticks is drawing up exaggerated social and political concepts that look absurd on their faces but later turn out to make internal sense. Looked at in that light, it's pretty clear what's going on: Carrot isn't phenotypically a dwarf, but he's culturally a dwarf, and he's accepted as such by Pratchett's dwarves because, to them, dwarvishness is less about being short and beardy and more about the culture. Wearing mail to dinner, being intimately familiar with mine engineering, baking bread that doubles as an assault weapon, et cetera. I don't know for sure, but I suspect the situation Pratchett had in mind was something like being adopted into a religious group normally associated with another ethnicity: his dwarves very often play on religious and traditional themes.

As Pratchett's developed Discworld's dwarvish culture more, this has started to make less sense, but the series isn't particularly good at long-term thematic continuity.

5CCC10y

* Carrot and Vimes, The Fifth Elephant. In short, Carrot's genetics play only a minor part in his sense of identity; he is genetically human but culturally dwarf, and thus in most situations he counts as both.

2JohnnyCat10y

"Identifying with" something or "Identifying As" something has an explicit meaning to me, which is that it is something I would call myself. Some of this may come from training and industry I'm in, but it's what you think of yourself as. For instance, someone who doodles occasionally may or may not identify "as an artist", but anyone who paints professionally almost certainly identifies as an artist. Someone who paints regularly as a hobby probably identifies as an artist; the doodler may be more idle about it and not really think of it as being an essential quality of self: It is something that person does, not something that person is. From such lines of thinking come statements such as, "Ich bin ein Berliner." -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ich_bin_ein_Berliner

4ChristianKl10y

There are probably plenty of people who paint walls who don't identify as artists.

7Vulture10y

And, despite this entire comments section, there are some LessWrongers who don't identify as pedants! :P

4Zubon10y

Parallel examples: * Almost everyone below a certain age plays video/computer games, but only a small subset of those people would self-identify as "gamers." * You exercise, but do you think of yourself as an "athlete"? You lift weights, but do you think of yourself as a "weightlifter"? * You are married, but is "spouse" a core part of your identity? You have reproduced, but is "parent" part of your core identity?

-1Lumifer10y

The spouse enters. It better be. The spouse exits. :-D

3Richard_Kennaway10y

I see, I think. It does not seem to be something that I do. For example, I play taiko regularly as a hobby, but if someone asked, "but do you identify as a taiko player", my reaction would be "wuh?" Going off on a tangent, how fixed or malleable is this mental experience? Has anyone who does "identify with" this or that tried as a meditative exercise, experimentally identifying with other things instead?

1SilentCal10y

FYI I don't think your view matches Pratchett's intention (which of course doesn't make you wrong). At one point Vimes (I think) asks Carrot about this, and Carrot replies that having dwarves for parents has never been a dwarfish definition of being a dwarf. Ultimately the sensitivity of these question comes from the fear of hidden inferences--the concern that when you say Carrot is not a dwarf, you're implying that it's wrong for him to observe dwarfish customs. I suppose you have the equal and opposite worry, that once we start calling Carrot a dwarf we'll build him a house with four-foot ceilings? Another job for taboo.

[-]ESRogs10y260

Did the whole thing!

[-]SpencerHill10y260

I did the survey! I decided to say I didn't believe in god, even though I think there's a high probability of the universe being a simulation, because I don't count a simulation as supernatural. Supernatural is something that requires the universe to be non-reductionist, in my opinion.

[-]Martin-210y260

Done.

[-]b_sen10y260

Taken.

Also found that my finger lengths are symmetrical across both hands to the limit of my ability to measure with a ruler. (Calipers might reveal differences, but I don't have access to those.) I did suspect this level of symmetry, but I didn't know until I measured them, so thanks!

[-]Zubon10y260

Survey completed. Some of the questions are ambiguous.

"How many children do you have?" I find this question problematic each year. Biological offspring? Custodial children?

"What is your approximate annual income in US dollars?" Personal income? Household income?

"Gender Default" I wanted something like a Likert scale here. I would not say I would feel "wrong," "creeped out," or "freaked out" by switching genders, but I would even less say that I "identify with their birth gender only because they see no reason to go through the hassle and social stigma of transitioning," which also seems qualitatively different than "a man who would be happy as either a man or a woman, but since they're a man, they stay a man." The question sets us a dichotomy that may not be so much false as a mild category error, sort of like "which one of you is the fork?"

[-]Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) 10y260

Third time starting the survey, first time finishing it!

[-]Alsadius10y260

Did the survey. I'm not terribly interested in karma, but if you feel the need to upvote, then upvote away.

One answer I gave that may confuse - I put "atheist" down under "other" for my religion, because I do believe that a) atheism is properly defined as an active belief in the lack of god(s), b) I hold this belief, c) there can be no actual direct evidence for this belief, and d) being a belief about the nature of god(s)(or lack thereof) is sufficient to make something a religion.

(Oddly, I also put 5% down as my probability of there being a god, but this is mostly because the definition is a superset of the simulation hypothesis, and I don't regard a big computer as being a god in any sense we use the term to mean)

3Alsadius10y

Also, I didn't have a digit ratio precise enough to put down, but it seems to be almost exactly 1, possibly slightly higher. (I am unambiguously male, which makes me wonder if my methodology is bad)

0anandjeyahar10y

0Acidmind10y

Not sure if your're countersignaling, but if you aren't, why mention it?

0Alsadius10y

Regarding karma? Because I'm not a big fan of karma whoring, and I don't want to feel like I'm just posting to get free upvotes. It feels unearned. I wanted to post to make an actual point, without feeling like I was going to get +50 votes just for breathing.

0Acidmind10y

I'd consider partaking in the survey worthy of positive reinforcement, but I'd agree that the average karma award a bit out of proportion. Regardless I think it's a rather interesting phenomena to dislike getting karma. Also I realized that my previous comment may have been unintentionally hostile. I mean, suppose that you indeed did countersignal, then my comment could be interpreted as a challenge to your genuinity. I hope it's clear that I intend to be game theoretically nice, but I'm really uncertain how to accomplish that in a such situation.

[-]NancyLebovitz10y260

What definition of the Singularity did you use for the question about when you think the Singularity is likely?

I think I used the one about the future becoming incomprehensible.

I'm pretty sure you could get an incomprehensible future by increasing everyone's IQ by 40 points (I know, it's a vague concept) and this might be easier than AI.

[-]ahuff4410y250

I did the thing!

[-]JohnWittle10y250

I took the survey, now give me my ~40 upvotes.

(is the free karma just an incentive to take the survey? or do 45 people really think that commenting that you took the survey is a valuable contribution to the discussion?)

0[anonymous]10y

Where's the number 45 coming from here?

[-]Natha10y250

First-time taker! Shorter than I expected. Hope I did the digity thing right...

[-]Leonhart10y250

Man, I'm late this year. Taken. To save my index finger, just upvoted everyone who took it in November :)

Next time, the "supernatural" question really needs to just link to the Sequence post defining the word.

6Azathoth12310y

I've read the sequences. I still don't think the concept is clearly defined.

4Leonhart10y

I think the intuitive surface reading of that post (supernatural objects are black boxes; they have state, but are denied to have internal structure that implements the state) at least makes it clear that simulators are not "supernatural" under this definition. Which is the actual query people were blocking on. But evidently many people read the post differently.

1Ixiel10y

Amen. Maybe we should just use a different wording. Thinking a thing is supernatural seems incompatible with believing it exists in most common uses (though yes, we all can contrive counterexample)

[-]drnickbone10y240

Taken survey.

[-]AABoyles10y240

I have taken the survey, and can't wait to see the results on the calibration questions. Post-hoc self-assessment suggests I have a long way to go...

[-]A1987dM10y240

You may round off your karma score if you want to be less identifiable. If your karma score is 15000 or above, you may put 15000 if you want to be less identifiable.

I was oh-so-tempted to enter “Over 9000!” in there.

4TobyBartels10y

As of this moment, you have exactly 10000. Good job! (Thanks in part to whoever downvoted your comment here.)

[-]Bayeslisk10y230

I was slightly late, unfortunately, but filled out the whole thing anyway.

[-]James_Ernest10y230

Was anybody else disappointed that the Sex Role Inventory wasn't nearly as raunchy as the name suggested?

3JoachimSchipper10y

I was pretty happy about that, actually.

[-]PhilSchwartz10y220

Took the survey - now going to give some people karma

[-]Baughn10y220

Hey, this year I was able to answer some of the calibration questions! Three yays for norse mythology.

Also apparently I'm a weird person.

[-]mare-of-night10y210

I took the survey.

Did anyone else fall on the borderline for some of these questions? I was in a weird space for the one about whether you ever had a relationship with someone else from LW (they introduced me to LW).

[-]BarbaraB10y210

On November 2, I wrote: "Partial success. I meant to fill in the survey completely, but my internet froze at calibration question 5. In an attempt to revive it, I pressed Enter, which resulted in submission of the incomplete survey. Now what ?" I received recommendation to take the survey again and report the unfinished one as something to be discarded. So now I finally took the full survey. To avoid duplicity, please discard an old incomplete survey finished at calibration question 5, from someone who lives in Slovakia, attended 2013 "full" minicamp and reported that time carma of cca 174.

8BarbaraB10y

Btw., the definition of feminism "...establishing, and defending equal political, economic, cultural, and social rights for women" makes it a movement I endorse, but I am not sure the definition accurately describes what happened to it.

[-]ilzolende10y200

I did the survey (while I was still a lurker).

[-]mako yass10y200

I think the question on P(God) is a lot more difficult to answer than the surveyors realize. We're all cognizant of the possibility of the known universe being a simulation, a machine constructed by some intelligent entity in a higher level universe*. Some of us consider the probability of the scenario Simulation to be high, if not absolute for reasons I wont go into here.

Many of us are define "natural" as "happened in reality", thus they define "supernatural" as "did not happen". Those may rightfully assign literal 0 to P(God), that is a statement as sure as the axioms of the logic you formulate it in. The rest of us, though, those of us who believe that all words should by virtue of their existence have a use, have to think a bit more. If "Supernatural" means anything, I'd be surprised if anyone here bears a definition that does not render Simulation equivalent to the scenario God as God was defined in the survey.

To me, "Supernatural", if you're going to use it, could only mean "so mysterious as to be beyond being reasoned about or modelled". The work of the simulator's hand would definitely qualify as such, and so too would the simulator itself. Lo, a supernatural creator. God is reality.

6TheOtherDave10y

FWIW, this line of reasoning comes up pretty regularly (especially in response to that survey question), so if the surveyors fail to realize the associated difficulties, it's not through failure to have it pointed out. I suspect they realize it just fine. For my own part, I just skip questions that I don't know how to answer and move on. Incidentally, LW has a preferred local understanding of "supernatural," which derives from this post. That's not to say everyone here thinks it's a good definition -- I don't, for example -- but it's probably the best Schelling point to use when a shared understanding is important.

5Elund10y

Continuing to complain about it may still have an effect though. I personally think they should post the definition they're using for "supernatural" in the description for the question, maybe right below their current description.

4mako yass10y

Ah. Hardly incidental. I wish I'd known about that. I hold that the definition (if it belongs to anyone at all) belongs to those who self-identify as believers in the supernatural, this form feels far more like what I'd expect to find in their heads. Great clumbering atomic concepts that can't be broken down to the stuff of ordinary reasoning.

5TheOtherDave10y

(nods) For my own part, I try to avoid using words whose definitions are saliently ambiguous, and when I am listening to others do so I try as well as I can to understand what they mean to convey by using the phrase, and otherwise try to avoid getting too tangled up in questions of what ambiguous phrases really mean. When it comes to "supernatural"... the people I listen to who (claim to) believe in the supernatural mostly just seem to be referring to events that aren't explicable by or are inconsistent with modern scientific consensus beliefs. That is, it seems to be an epistemological category, not an ontological one. And while it's certainly possible to get into a whole discussion of whether any given event falls in that category or not, on a broader level it doesn't matter much to the broader question of whether such events can occur. I mean, of course such events occur with regularity, since the modern scientific consensus at any given moment is always an incomplete (and to a lesser extent outright inaccurate) and evolving model of reality. I agree with that much completely. They don't, as far as I can tell, have any consistent beliefs one way or the other about whether ontologically basic mental entities are at the core of those events. For example, I have several friends who (claim to) believe that the spirits of dead people can manifest themselves physically in various contexts, but they have no more of a notion of whether those spirits are ontologically basic mental entities than I have of the mineral composition of Ceres. Of course, there's also a subset of those folks who argue that since scientific consensus is incomplete/inaccurate, they're allowed to hold on to whatever explanations they're most comfortable/familiar with, which frequently includes traditional occult legends and memes from various cultures. But that's a fallacy of reasoning that seems entirely orthogonal to the question of what they mean by "supernatural."

4Jiro10y

I somehow doubt that if it was suddenly discovered that cigarette smoking was good for your health, many people would refer to that as supernatural, even though that would be inconsistent with modern scientific consensus beliefs.

0TheOtherDave10y

I agree.

5Jiro10y

Supernatural under a definition which implies it cannot exist still has a use. The word is a useful label to talk about people's beliefs; of course it's possible to believe in things which cannot exist.

0CAE_Jones10y

IIRC I gave the same answer for both for exactly this reason, but I might remember wrong and have just considered it.

[-]Creutzer10y200

I'm a bit unhappy about the options for metaethical positions. I object to the identification of non-cognitivism with emotivism, because if non-cognitivism is defined as the position that moral statements don't have truth-values, then I'm a non-cognitivist, but I still hold that there are logical relationships between moral statements, and between moral and factual statements.

3blacktrance10y

I suggested the metaethics question, and I'm sorry for any inadequacies in my descriptions. I used emotivism as the example for non-cognitivism because it's the form of it with which I'm most familiar, and because it would've been difficult to come up with a general example that would encompass all forms of non-cognitivism. It was similarly difficult to come up with a general example for constructivism - my example is along the lines of Hobbesian constructivism, with which other constructivists may disagree.

3Creutzer10y

The formulation of the question didn't quite make it clear that emotivism was just intended as an example for one possible non-cognitivist position. That's what I objected to. As an example, it's fine of course - it is, after all, the most well-known such position.

1Leonhart10y

I was mostly irked that "the position from the Sequences" wasn't an option (although I quite understand why you'd want to avoid parochial signalling), as neither your definition of subjectivist nor substantive realist seemed to capture it adequately. I eventually opted for the latter.

3Richard_Kennaway10y

Can you expand on that? How do you have logical relationships among statements that don't have truth-values? If I think about it in abstract mathematical terms, just as a distance is a relationship between things (positions) that are not distances, one might set up a system in which implication is a truth-valued relationship between things that are not truth values, but I've never heard of such a system.

8Creutzer10y

You can define a notion of logical consequence that isn't preservation of truth and is therefore applicable to sentences that have no truth-values. For example, define a state as some sort of thing, define what it means for a sentence to be accepted in a state, and then define consequence as preservation of acceptance. But you still can't identify acceptance with truth because you'll have a separate notion of the truth which, in turn, is used in the definition of acceptance. It's just that this notion of truth is only defined for some sentences of the language. (As a very simple case, say a state is a set of worlds, and a non-modal sentence φ is accepted in a state s iff φ is true in all worlds w in s.) Mark Schröder and Seth Yalcin are two people on the philosophical side who defend modal expressivism with a semantics of that sort. On the more logico-linguistic side, there's lots of Dutch people, for example Frank Veltman and Jeroen Groenendijk.

3TobyBartels10y

This depends on how you think about things (and what you count as a truth value), but arguably, ‘x = 3’ and ‘x² = 9’ do not have truth values, but ‘if x = 3, then x² = 9’ does.

7Richard_Kennaway10y

I would say that "x=3" has a function from values of x to truth values, as does "if x = 3, then x² = 9" (a constant function to the value "true").

3TobyBartels10y

Sure, that's one way to look at it. And a function from values of x to truth values is not itself a truth value. You may say that a constant function from values of x to the value True is not itself a truth value either, but it's much closer (after all, you know which one it would be if it were one), so it's a minor shift to your way of looking at it to get what I said. Now consider ‘If x² = 9, then x = 3’. A lot of people would naturally want to label that False (at least if they remember about negative numbers). As a function from values of x to truth values, this is not constant (and in fact it assigns True to every real value of x except one), so this is not even the same way of looking at things as in my previous paragraph. But it's common. So if you want implication between non-truth-values to be a truth value consistently, then this is how I would do it.

0Richard_Kennaway10y

That depends on the domain of x. That and the universal quantifier over its domain are typically omitted when they are clear from the context.

0TobyBartels10y

Yes, if we're talking only about positive numbers, then ‘If x² = 9, then x = 3’ is true.

[-]TheAncientGeek10y200

"Social democrat" and "liberal" have been given almost identical descriptions. Don't know if that's deliberate.

[-]ChrisHallquist10y140

Duplicate comment, probably should be deleted.

2JoachimSchipper10y

I assume that TheAncientGeek has actually submitted the survey; in that case, their comment is "proof" that they deserve karma.

[-]helltank10y190

I did the survey.

[-]Error10y190

I took the survey.

I failed to ask for this when the request for comments came up, but it would have been nice to get questions about people's awareness/participation in the LWSH. Oh well, maybe next year.

I did the digit ratio question, but I am not sure if my datapoint is useful -- I have arthritis in my fingers and I'm not sure if that warps the result.

[-]Username10y150

Here are the answers to the calibration questions if anyone is curious (rot13):

Q: What is the largest single bone in the human body?
A: Gur srzhe (be guvtuobar) vf gur ybatrfg, urnivrfg, naq zbfg ibyhzvabhf obar va gur uhzna obql. Vg znxrf hc 26% bs na vaqvivqhny'f urvtug ba vgf bja. Gur gvovn (be fuvaobar) vf gur frpbaq ybatrfg, naq V pbhyqa'g svaq vasbezngvba ba gur frpbaq urnivrfg. Hapyrne vs gur cryivf pbhagf, orpnhfr gur cryivf vf znqr bs frireny obarf shfrq gbtrgure.

Q: In what US state was Barack Obama born?
A: Unjnvv. Gurer jnf na bqq pbafcvenpl gurbel gung Bonzn jnf npghnyyl obea va Xraln naq gung uvf Unjnvvna ovegu pregvsvpngr jnf snxrq.

Q: The Battle of Trafalgar was fought off the coast of which country?
A: Fcnva. Gur 1805 Onggyr bs Gensnytne jnf sbhtug whfg bss gur pbnfg bs Pncr Gensnytne, Fcnva. Gur Oevgvfu fbhaqyl qrsrngrq n pbzovarq Serapu naq Fcnavfu anil, ybfvat abg n fvatyr fuvc gb gurve 22. Vg jnf gur zbfg qrpvfvir aniny ivpgbel bs gur Ancbyrbavp Jnef.

Q: Who is the one-eyed chief god of Norse mythology, sometimes called "the All-Father"?
A: Bqva. Bqva vf gur Nyysngure bs gur Abefr Tbqf, naq gur ehyre bs Nftneq (juvpu pbagnvaf Inyunyyn). Ur tbhtrq bhg bar bs ... (read more)

6Jiro10y

Since Minesweeper comes with Windows, it easily beats Minecraft for "best selling game".

5Lumifer10y

Nobody actually buys Minesweeper, so I don't think it counts as a bestselling game. Having said this, the claims about the bestselling game of all time upthread sound wrong to me. The first game that came to mind, Wikipedia says this about it: which handily beats Minecraft.

4Username10y

I suppose it comes down to whether Yvain was looking for the best selling video game of all time, or the best selling PC game of all time. 'Computer game' is a little ambiguous. Ng nal engr, vg'f rvgure Grgevf be Zvarpensg qrcraqvat ba lbhe zrgevp. uggc://ra.jvxvcrqvn.bet/jvxv/Yvfg_bs_orfg-fryyvat_ivqrb_tnzrf

2FullMeta_Rationalist10y

I was confused too. Not only by "did he mean video game?", but also "how does he define sales?". I picked Super Mario Bros and called it a day.

3Scott Alexander10y

I stated that all disputes would be resolved by Wikipedia, and here is Wikipedia's verdict on the matter: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_games

3Lumifer10y

The question in the survey is: "computer game" != "PC game"

-1VAuroch10y

"computer game" == "PC game" "video game" != "PC game"

3Lumifer10y

Not in my usage of these terms, but YMMV, of course.

2James_Miller10y

Why not this list? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games

1ike10y

Well the question did say computer game ...

-1James_Miller10y

Which is different from PC games.

0see10y

The contention that "'computer games', as defined by Wikipedia" is "PC games" is, of course, true. However, did you deliberately intend that people who knew with high confidence Tetris was (by far) the best-selling game played on computers (as computers are defined by Wikipedia) would get caught by not knowing that Wikipedia redirects "computer game" to "PC game" rather than to "video game"?

0[anonymous]10y

V fhccbfr vg pbzrf qbja gb jurgure Linva jnf ybbxvat sbe gur orfg fryyvat ivqrb tnzr bs nyy gvzr, be gur orfg fryyvat CP tnzr bs nyy gvzr. 'Pbzchgre tnzr' vf n yvggyr nzovthbhf. Ng nal engr, vg'f rvgure Grgevf be Zvarpensg qrcraqvat ba lbhe zrgevp. uggc://ra.jvxvcrqvn.bet/jvxv/Yvfg_bs_orfg-fryyvat_ivqrb_tnzrf

3epursimuove10y

Ner lbh fher nobhg guvf? Fbzr Tbbtyvat tvirf n znff nebhaq 260-300t sbe na nqhyg srzhe, pbzcnerq gb 1xt sbe n fxhyy, nygubhtu tenagrq abar bs gur uvgf V svaq frrz greevoyl fpubyneyl.

0Username10y

Abg fher ng nyy. Gur Jvxvcrqvn cntr sbe gur srzhe pynvzf vg vf gur zbfg znffvir obar va gur obql, ohg V pna'g svaq nal ahzoref ng nyy sbe gur fxhyy. Vg qbrfa'g frrz yvxr V pna svaq n oernxqbja bs n uhzna fxryrgba ol znff. N havirefvgl yvoenel zvtug or n orggre cynpr gb ybbx. Nygubhtu fgevpgyl fcrnxvat gur fxhyy vf pbzcevfrq bs frireny obarf shfrq gbtrgure, fb gung znl qvfdhnyvsl vg zhpu yvxr gur cryivf (vs Linva vf orvat gung grpuavpny nobhg vg).

0A1987dM10y

Gur fheirl rkcyvpvgyl fnlf “fvatyr obar”, fb gur cryivf naq gur fxhyy qrsvavgryl qba'g pbhag.

0Baughn10y

Gur fxhyy vf hfhnyyl abg pbafvqrerq gb or n fvatyr obar, ab. Vg'f rnfl rabhtu gb tbbtyr "Ynetrfg obar", naq gur nafjref ner pbafvfgrag.

0Username10y

That's true, but I couldn't find an actual medical source for bone proportions. Online, sites seem to repeat the 'wikipedia comsensus'.

[-]blashimov10y130

I have taken the survey, including all questions.

[-]cameroncowan10y120

I took the survey, it was a good thing....

[-]MichaelAnissimov10y50

I took the survey.

[-][anonymous]10y00

Does "Magic Player" count as a non-English language?

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[-][anonymous]10y00

duplicate

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