2024 is drawing to a close, which means it's an opportune time to make predictions about 2025. It's also a great time to put probabilities on those predictions, so we can later prove our calibration (or lack thereof).
We just shipped a LessWrong feature to make this easy. Simply highlight a sentence in your comment, and click the crystal-ball icon on the toolbar to turn it a prediction that everyone (who's logged in) can put probability estimates on. The result will look like this:
Some more probabilities that seem cool to elicit (basically all about AI, because that's what's on my mind, but it would be great to have some less AI focused predictions from others)[1]:
- ^
Unless otherwise specified assume all predictions are about the state of the world at midnight PT, Dec 31st 2025. Also some things won't be perfectly operationalized. Assume that I am going to be judging the resolution using my best judgement.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RDG2dbg6cLNyo6MYT/thane-ruthenis-s-shortform#GagwbhMwc3y3NYyTZ