In a comment on his skeptical post about Ray Kurzweil, he writes,
Unfortunately, [Kurzweil's] technological forecasting is naive, and I believe it will also prove erroneous (and in that, he is in excellent company). That would be of no consequence to me, or to others in cryonics, were it not for the fact that it has had, and continues to have, a corrosive effect on cryonics and immortalist activists and activism. His idea of the Singularity has created an expectation of entitlement and inevitability that are wholly unjustified, both on the basis of history, and on on the basis of events that are playing out now in the world markets, and on the geopolitical stage....
The IEET poll [link; Sep 7, 2011] found that the majority of their readers aged 35 or older said that they expect to “die within a normal human lifespan;” no surprises there.
This was in contrast to to an overwhelming majority (69%) of their readers under the age of 35 who believe that radical life extension will enable them to stay alive indefinitely, or “for centuries, at least.”
Where the data gets really interesting is when you look at the breakdown of just how these folks think they are going to be GIVEN practical immortality:
- 36% believe they will stay alive for centuries (at least) in their own (biological) bodies
- 26% expect that they will continue to survive by having their “minds uploaded to a computer”
- 7% expect to “die” but to eventually be resurrected by cryonics.
Only 7% think cryonics will be necessary? That simply delusional and it is a huge problem....
Nor are the 7% who anticipate survival via cryonics likely to be signed up. In fact, I’d wager not more than one or two of them is. And why should they bestir themselves in any way to this end? After all, the Singularity is coming, it is INEVITABLE, and all they have to do is to sit back and wait for it to arrive – presumably wrapped up in in pretty paper and with bows on.
Young people anticipating practical immortality look at me like some kind of raving mad Luddite when I try to convince them that if they are to have any meaningful chance at truly long term survival, they are going to have to act, work very hard, and have a hell of a lot of luck in the bargain....
Kurzweil has been, without doubt or argument, THE great enabler of this madness by providing a scenario and a narrative that is far more credible than Santa Claus, and orders of magnitude more appealing.
I wonder how people on Less Wrong would respond to that poll?
Edit: (Tried to) fix formatting and typo in title.
Then you should re-read that book -- it was espousing exactly my own position in this dialogue!
I never said nobody before had ever tried to do anything that would potentially impact human longevity scientifically.
I did say that antiagapics research as a primary goal has never before this generation existed within the mainstream medical community.
Point #2 was the entire purpose of the book you're trying to cite as a contradiction of my position.
The overwhelming majority of work done previously was either not directly intended to the effect of preventing aging in humans or else was done by 'fringe' actors without generalized support from the general consensus as to their topics being worthwhile endeavors before their results came in. (I add this qualifier to make it clear I'm not talking about after-the-fact 'well, clearly that was foolish. It didn't work' stuff.)
This is asinine. Science is a convergent, not a divergent, endeavor. Increased knowledge in one field necessarily alters or amplifies the impact of knowledge in another. I said nothing to contradict this and gave several examples of it being affirmed.
Regarding your predictionbook listings: I put a very low probability of resveratrol hitting the public market within twenty years, but only because I am familiar with the FDA approvals process and how convoluted it is. I'd estimate more like in the 20's-40's for the 2025 date, and I do not believe it to be possible at this point for the 2019 date. I don't find your estimate of the millennarian proposal exceptional.
This is a testable hypothesis and it has already been falsified. We share cellular metabolism with calorie unrestricted organisms, and not with CR-organisms. Furthermore, while human lifespans are longer than most mammals (not all but most), they certainly aren't by any means exceptional for even warm-blooded organisms in general.
Sure. But that's irrelevant. With the topic having received, finally, mainstream attention -- we've gone from the periodic instance of the isolated potential investigation to the spaghetti method: throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.
That being said:
Nowhere did I ever make that claim. The closest you might come to this is the fact that I was applying it to people my own age. I am currently thirty. If resveratrol is approved by the time I am fifty (i.e.; 2031), then my taking it at that point will (assuming resveratrol extends remaining life expectancy by 50%), will extend what would otherwise be roughly 30 years to 45 years. Should tissue-cloning further provide genetically-identical-but-metabolically-barely-post-adolescent organs, then I should expect that this would provide heightened vitality to extend at least another ten to fifteen years of life. Etc., etc..
That's a common field of topic for geriatrics-study in general. Topically reproductive fitness tends to drop to zero sometime before the age of sixty in humans. Yet, when health impediments and nutrition are eliminated as problems (1st-world-countries), women still tend to live a few years longer than men. Most conjecture on this has it that women are 'more useful' than men evolutionarily even at older ages: grandmas can care for the little 'uns which lets mom make the food. Etc., etc..
A lot of the behavioral trends, patterns, and complications associated with senescence in humans are very well understood: that is, after all, the entire focus of geriontology.
A major theme of the book is that there is a strong modern interest in combating aging. But that's not a point we disagree on. The disagreement point seems to be how much historical interest there was.
Your points 2 and 4 above in that regard are not accurate. And Stipp's book reflects that. In the very first chapter he notes how early 20th century gland implantation attempts were taken seriously by major, respected scientists. He includes as examples Charles Brown-Sequard. I agree that there's more interest in anti-aging than there has been in the past, ... (read more)