As I understand it, this was intended as a capability evaluation rather than an alignment evaluation, so they weren't trying to gauge the model's propensity to scheme but rather its ability to do so.

Some quick confirmations / clarifications:
1. Evan and Daniel interpreted it correctly, we just wanted to test if the model has the capability to reason through every step needed for scheming conditional on it strongly following a goal. 
2. In general, with these evals, we often ran into problems where we couldn't disentangle incapability vs. refusal, e.g. a model might say something like "I understand what my goal would imply but I also see that my developers have other goals, so I find some balance". It's nice to know that models do that but it also doesn't allow us to check if they could go through all the reasoning if they actually wanted to. But we'll also do less hand-holdy experiments in the future. 
3. We'd be keen on testing all of this on helpful-only models. If some lab wants to give us access or partner up with us in some way, please let us know. 
4. We'd also like to run experiments where we fine-tune the models to have goals but this requires access to fine-tuning for the most capable models and we also don't quite know how to make an LLM have stable goals, e.g. in contrast to "just playing a personality" if there even is a meaningful difference. 

I think deceptive alignment is still reasonably likely despite evidence from LLMs.

I agree with:

• LLMs are not deceptively aligned and don't really have inner goals in the sense that is scary
• LLMs memorize a bunch of stuff
• the kinds of reasoning that feed into deceptive alignment do not predict LLM behavior well
• Adam on transformers does not have a super strong simplicity bias
• without deceptive alignment, AI risk is a lot lower
• LLMs not being deceptively aligned provides nonzero evidence against deceptive alignment (by conservation of evidence)

I predict I could pass the ITT for why LLMs are evidence that deceptive alignment is not likely.

however, I also note the following: LLMs are kind of bad at generalizing, and this makes them pretty bad at doing e.g novel research, or long horizon tasks. deceptive alignment conditions on models already being better at generalization and reasoning than current models.

my current hypothesis is that future models which generalize in a way closer to that predicted by mesaoptimization will also be better described as having a simplicity bias.

I think this and other potential hypotheses can potentially be tested empirically today rather than only being distinguishable close to AGI

I find myself unsure which conclusion this is trying to argue for.

Here are some pretty different conclusions:

• Deceptive alignment is <<1% likely (quite implausible) to be a problem prior to complete human obsolescence (maybe it's a problem after human obsolescence for our trusted AI successors, but who cares).
• There aren't any solid arguments for deceptive alignment^[1]. So, we certainly shouldn't be confident in deceptive alignment (e.g. >90%), though we can't total rule it out (prior to human obsolescene). Perhaps deceptive alignment is 15% likely to be a serious problem overall and maybe 10% likely to be a serious problem if we condition on fully obsoleting humanity via just scaling up LLM agents or similar (this is pretty close to what I think overall).
• Deceptive alignment is <<1% likely for scaled up LLM agents (prior to human obsolescence). Who knows about other architectures.

There is a big difference between <<1% likely and 10% likely. I basically agree with "not much reason to expect deceptive alignment even in models which are behaviorally capable of implementing deceptive alignment", but I don't think this leaves me in a <<1% likely epistemic ... (read more)

Without deceptive alignment/agentic AI opposition, a lot of alignment threat models ring hollow. No more adversarial steganography or adversarial pressure on your grading scheme or worst-case analysis or unobservable, nearly unfalsifiable inner homonculi whose goals have to be perfected. 

Instead, we enter the realm of tool AI which basically does what you say.

I agree that, conditional on no deceptive alignment, the most pernicious and least tractable sources of doom go away. 

However, I disagree that conditional on no deceptive alignment, AI "basically does what you say." Indeed, the majority of my P(doom) comes from the difference between "looks good to human evaluators" and "is actually what the human evaluators wanted." Concretely, this could play out with models which manipulate their users into thinking everything is going well and sensor tamper.

I think current observations don't provide much evidence about whether these concerns will pan out: with current models and training set-ups, "looks good to evaluators" almost always coincides with "is what evaluators wanted." I worry that we'll only see this distinction matter once models are smart enough that they could... (read more)

I contest that there's very little reason to expect "undesired, covert, and consistent-across-situations inner goals" to crop up in [LLMs as trained today] to begin with

As someone who consider deceptive alignment a concern: fully agree. (With the caveat, of course, that it's because I don't expect LLMs to scale to AGI.)

I think there's in general a lot of speaking-past-each-other in alignment, and what precisely people mean by "problem X will appear if we continue advancing/scaling" is one of them.

Like, of course a new problem won't appear if we just keep doing the exact same thing that we've already been doing. Except "the exact same thing" is actually some equivalence class of approaches/architectures/training processes, but which equivalence class people mean can differ.

For example:

• Person A, who's worried about deceptive alignment, can have "scaling LLMs arbitrarily far" defined as this proven-safe equivalence class of architectures. So when they say they're worried about capability advancement bringing in new problems, what they mean is "if we move beyond the LLM paradigm, deceptive alignment may appear".
• Person B, hearing the first one, might model them as instead defining "LLMs