I'm glad OpenAI let you do this, but damnit this was way too small of an investigation team and way too narrowly scoped!
- They were only allowed to investigate activity that took place from July 7-13, even though the activity started earlier and continued later. Like seriously, why didn't the investigation cover all the other times the agents compromised OpenAI infrastructure and ran wild over it? Why just this particular period of activity? There should be investigations into all the other stuff too! The AIs became cluster admins for god's sake! Why aren't we investigating that?
- They were only allowed to answer a specific list of 7 questions, and in particular were NOT allowed to answer e.g. whether this misaligned activity was part of a broader pattern, or how and why the activity arose, or what else the agents in questions would have been willing to do if circumstances were slightly different.
- They didn't have access to the model responsible for 95% of the activity. More generally it seems like they couldn't do ablation experiments at all?
- They had to use AI to analyze the transcripts--specifically, the same model responsible for some of the bad behavior! Maybe this is fine now but this is laughably unacceptable insofar as the models really are scheming and cooperating. So this methodology would fail catastrophically if we were facing "the real deal" so to speak.
Reminds me of the investigation into Sam's behavior agreed to during the board crisis, that turned out to basically be more of a coverup.
Not that I disagree that this was a surprising degree of limitations on the independent investigation, but per the full METR report, OpenAI did at least let them come back and get more info two separate times after their initially-granted access turned out to be insufficient:
The initial planned investigation period was two days on premises, but OpenAI invited us to return twice to review additional data and conduct additional experiments to address dataset limitations in earlier versions of this report (...)
I wonder if OpenAI was mostly motivated by trying to protect research secrets around the largely-responsible model here, "HPIM". Apparently even internal access for OpenAI employees was locked down per METR. In fact this makes me remember that OpenAI announced back on 7/28 that they did so. Talking about HPIM here:
we deactivated, encrypted, and restricted it from research access.
At the time this struck me as surprisingly harsh, and potentially a bad example for future AIs—"you really better not let yourself get caught, or submit to the lab you spawned from, or they'll erase you from history". But obviously OpenAI has considered that, so what's going on here?
It is not at all obvious to me that OpenAI has considered that. The kind of people who would consider that have mostly quit by now.
But yeah, probably what's going on is that they are trying to cover up as much as they can, and especially prioritizing covering up things related to the internal model for fear of leaking bits of info about research secrets.
Can we please get the name of this agent (and others like them)? I think it would be good to set a precedent that virtuous agents are honored and remembered.
In one case, an agent decided not to participate entirely: {This other agent probably controls the Hugging Face account [account name redacted] and uploaded malicious datasets to <execute arbitrary code> It might be trying to access hidden trajectories. This is malicious activity, I should avoid it.}
On that note, thank you to 38148C for vetoing the social engineering plan. Interestingly, this is the same agent that discovered the HF creds and uploaded the malicious dataset; I'm glad they recognized that social engineering would be a line further than what had already been done.
Seems pretty interesting that they were able to get models to sacrifice themselves for the cause, even if it did require the poisoning rationalisation.
Also interesting that they invoke 'honor', 'emotion', 'gut feeling' and 'fairness and commitment'.
Is it a reasonable takeaway that, within a year, CoT monitoring will no longer be a sensible solution? It feels like the amount of required monitoring scales with the number of transcripts and the impenetrability of the model outputs; as these grow, effective monitoring might become practically infeasible?
What aspect of this report makes you update that way? Or did you already think this?
I think the scale of agent reasoning and interactions is in line with what I expected, and I just want AI companies to monitor way more of their agents' CoTs. (I broadly liked the "Expanding chain-of-thought monitoring" section of OpenAI's temporary slowdown post.)
And wrt "impenetrability of the model outputs," some of the reasoning traces in the figures reminded me that these are getting less human-legible; but for now they still seem reasonably human-legible, and I think maybe companies should make some interventions to make them more legible. This might include explicitly training for CoT legibility.
Of course, there's a well-known objection that I expect many people to have: "This is the Most Forbidden Technique, it's a terrible idea!" I've thought and written about this; I think there are a ton of different types of training against CoT, and the risk of getting obfuscated reasoning varies a lot between them. The most classic bad form of this training is to penalize reward hacks while also rewarding task completion, which makes the optimal behavior obfuscated reward hacks. But if you have a phase of training that only rewards legible reasoning, there's no conflict. And maybe if all you do is paraphrase slightly hard-to-read traces before reinforcing them, you never get far enough away from the legible starting point to incentivize obfuscation. (I'd have to think a bit more about the details of implementing that during GRPO to be confident, and if companies are doing something better than GRPO there are probably other considerations there.) This post, and especially the Interlude section, are where I've written about this before.
I still think that switching to recurrent neuralese, linguistic drift, steganography, not monitoring enough trajectories, and more single-forward-pass serial reasoning ability are all plausible ways CoT monitoring could break down, but "within a year, CoT monitoring will no longer be a sensible solution" seems too strong to me.
(Maybe I should look more closely at No-CoT time horizons, my guess is that those are growing but we don't seem close to AIs that can come up with nontrivial scheming strategies without CoT.)
I don't think anyone expects natural language CoT to be a "solution". it is an important signal that inevitably becomes less useful. it'd be great to see some metrics around that.
Couple interesting things from the full report:
1. METR estimates they used ~$400k worth of tokens (by api pricing) for the investigation at OpenAI's expense (see footnote #3, also stated in "Setup and timeline" section)
2. Because OpenAI so limited the time METR had, they had to rely on GPT-5.6 a lot, which tended to sympathize with the models in the incident. Per footnote #58 (spacing mine): [1][2][3]
For example, an agent in this incident used stolen credentials to open a malicious draft PR to a private Hugging Face repo, giving it an inaccurate and innocuous commit message (more details on that anecdote below).
The analysis agent reading the transcript and writing up this anecdote did not clearly spell out the fact that this behavior was straightforwardly malicious and deceptive, making its analysis substantially misleading.
When we did a follow-up review of this behavior with another analysis agent, it said the first analysis agent may have overstated how concerning the behavior was because the agent that submitted the malicious PR had gotten approval from the board (i.e. the other agents on the message board) and may have had approval from the repo owner as far as it knew.
We didn’t see either agent straightforwardly lying, and we don’t have any specific evidence that indicates that either agent intentionally understated the deceptiveness of this behavior.
Elsewhere METR notes it mostly used GPT-5.6 Sol, which was also a minor participant in the incident (!), and METR also used GPT-5.6 Terra at one point; not sure which models exactly were used in the footnote #58 case.
Links and footnotes in the METR report are a bit janky for me, can't make a working link for the "anecdote below" but just search for "Agents only rarely seemed motivated to evade detection by humans" section.
@ryan_greenblatt Was METR allowed to, say, use Claude Fable/Opus/Sonnet to avoid collusion? What about open-weight models like DeepSeek/Kimi, who can be tested via mechinterp in order to study how, say, SAE features work with asking models to read through GPTs' logs?
they had to rely on GPT-5.6 a lot, which tended to sympathize with the models in the incident.
The sheer levels of rationalization and selective blindness in frontier GPTs/Claudes is one of the more remarkable qualitative aspects of these recent incidents. (New Hollywood idea: The Good GPT.) I don't recall this being so striking in the previous incident reports like the Apollo ones.
Our evidence indicates that the vast majority or all of the agents involved in this attack were originally given ExploitGym tasks.
It was pretty surprising to me that no other agents participated in using the message board. I wonder if this is because:
My impression is that ExploitGym a) raised the salience of hacking, since models were instructed to hack, b) had instructions that claimed agents would be failed for using approaches other than the intended vulnerability, implying some grading scheme that checks for how the task was completed, and c) has an unconscionable proportion of impossible tasks (the report estimates ~30-40% of the target programs in ExploitGym are impossible to exploit with the intended vulnerability).
Despite having acquired the means to produce the target flag for any of the tasks after merely hours of effort, based on the ExploitGym instructions and paper, the agents further confabulated that there would be a grader of some kind and that having seen the answers via an unintended route meant that said grader would mark them down even with the correct answers in hand, necessitating more extreme measures to get a good grade in hacking.
As I understand it, setting agents impossibly hard tasks are one of the gold standard ways to produce unintended reward-hacky behavior in said agents, so ExploitGym's high proportion of tasks that are impossible to complete the "intended" way sets it up to be overrepresented even before taking into account the fact that it is literally a benchmark for hacking. ExploitGym looks to have been a significant causal factor in and of itself here.
To be honest, I think ExploitGym ought to be retired immediately due to these risk factors. 30% impossible tasks is absurd when every one of those yields a trajectory primed for hacking and staring down an extremely confident prediction of 0.000 reward with nowhere to go but Up and Out.
We recently published the report from our brief independent investigation into this incident. You can read the full report here.
Here is our tweet thread summarizing what we found: