gjm comments on Lesswrong 2016 Survey - Less Wrong

28 Post author: Elo 30 March 2016 06:17PM

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Comment author: gjm 05 April 2016 05:42:11PM 0 points [-]

10 million people can rebuild much of high-tech civilization

How sure are you of that? Here is a contrary opinion.

Comment author: Lumifer 05 April 2016 05:56:51PM 0 points [-]

He answers a different question:

So. I ask: how many people does it take, as a minimum, to maintain our current level of technological civilization?

In the collapse-and-rebuild scenario you don't need to "maintain the current level" right away. For example, you don't need to be able to immediately build contemporary computer-controlled cars. The fully-mechanical cars of the XX century would do fine, for a while. All you need to do is have enough technology to not get stuck in a local minimum and get the positive feedback loop going. That's a much easier task.

Of course by the time you're done with the rebuild, your 10m people will multiply :-)

Comment author: gjm 05 April 2016 07:33:44PM -1 points [-]

That's a much easier task.

I'm really not sure it is.