Meta comment about the dialogue feature:
This was the first time I used the dialogue feature and it was a blast (much better experience than comment threads). Being able to see what the other person is writing as they write it, suggest edits, and swap things around is such a great user experience, and is so much closer to talking than any other form of written communication I used thus far. I kinda wish I had the option to use this format in each of my chats (Whatsapp, Discord, etc..).
I loved how this allowed the conversation to be free-flowing, and took us on interesting tangents that we probably wouldn't have gone on otherwise. OTOH, this might make it worse to read. I personally haven't found any dialogue great to read yet, and it might be related to this quality, but it seems they are definitely great to have. So perhaps what's needed is just to go the extra step and distill the dialogue afterward.
Two other points:
One thing I noticed is that we very often wrote meta notes that we later deleted, and it may be nice to have a box on the side for meta discussion, so you can keep the main thread clean.
I think it would also be nice if we could do inline reacts while editing, to be easily able to mark agreement on something (Like you would nod your head or go "aha" in the middle of a sentence to show that you agree).
I loved how this allowed the conversation to be free-flowing, and took us on interesting tangents that we probably wouldn’t have gone on otherwise. OTOH, this might make it worse to read. I personally haven’t found any dialogue great to read yet, and it might be related to this quality
I strongly agree with this. I have also not found any dialogue great to read, and that is definitely because of this exact quality.
So perhaps what’s needed is just to go the extra step and distill the dialogue afterward.
That is definitely needed, but “just” is very much the wrong word to use here. Distilling a dialogue would end up providing most of the value to readers—much more value than the un-distilled dialogue. Unfortunately, it would also require considerable effort from the dialogue participants. It would, after all, be much like writing a regular post…
It's possible that with the dialogue written, a well prompted LLM could distill the rest. Especially if each section that was distilled could be linked back to the section in the dialogue it was distilled from.
Sure, it’s possible. I don’t trust LLMs nearly enough to depend directly on such a thing in a systematic way, but perhaps there could be a workflow where the LLM-generated summary is then fed back to the dialogue participants to sign off on. That might be a very useful thing for either the LW team or some third party to build, if it worked.
I think there have been some attempts to describe a further level of rationality. They just haven't taken off.
http://bewelltuned.com/ has been the most useful to me. Per bit, I'd say I prefer it to the Sequences. Though it is incomplete. Sadly, the author commited suicide after doing some crazy things to themselves. Raemon, who knows more of the details of their suicide than I do says their suicide wasn't really related to the content of BeWellTuned (see the comments on this post).
I've been impressed by what little of LoganStrohl's work on naturalism I've read. It also seems like it'd mesh nicely with some BWT techniques that I've been practicing.
And Cedric Chin has made great strides in improving his own instrumental rationality, especially in regards to business expertise. I found his notes on the literature on expertise to be very useful for some research I did, and because it changed refined my understanding of how people get good at things.
To explain: Alfred Koryzbski, the guy behind General Semantics, is basically "rationality from 100 years ago". (He lived 1879-1950.) He's ~2 generations before Feynman (1918-1988), who was ~one before Sagan (1934-1996), then there's a 2-3 generation gap to Yudkowsky (1979-). (Of course if you add more names to the list, the gaps disappear; reordering your list, you get James Randi (1928-2020), Dawkins (1941-), Hitchens (1949-2011), Michael Shermer (1954-), and Sam Harris (1967-) which takes you from Feynman to Yudkowsky, basically.)
He features in Rationalism before the Sequences, and is interesting both because 1) you can directly read his stuff, like Science and Sanity, and 2) most of his stuff has already made it to you indirectly, from the student's students. (Yudkowsky apparently wrote the Sequences before reading any Korzybski directly, but read lots of stuff written by people who read Korzybski.)
There are, of course, figures before Korzybski, but I think the gaps get larger / it becomes less obviously "rationalism" instead of something closer to "science".
Ah, of course!
Yeah, if we went for a full history of rationality we definitely would have mentioned him. We haven't because I don't think he had much of an influence over the "Skeptics" brand of rationality, which we talked about as the popular form of rationality before Eliezer. I think one of the things that distinguished Eliezer's form of rationality was that he integrated Korzybski's ideas into it.
I don't think, like, re-editing AI to Zombies once again is valuable.
I do think, like, "come up with your own n virtues of rationality" is a good exercise. I think destruction & resynthesis could be more fruitful
The problem here, I think, that there is no new level of rationality in a sense of qualitative change. Eliezer wrote down his knowledge, some unanswered questions, his tentative answers, went forth and created some of the Art, like functional decision theory. The rest is just continuation of this work.
Most of the foundational problems pointed out in the sequences — anthropic reasoning, reflective reasoning, strange loop circularity — haven't been solved
I'm currently writing a series of posts on anthropic reasoning with the ultimate goal of solving it once and for all.
How do you imagine a satisfying solution? What are the problems you would like to be addressed and questions to be answered?
Likewise, what are the issues with reflective reasoning strange loop circularity?
I saw your series and I'm happy you're working on it. Unfortunately I'm not well versed enough in the subject (or probability in general) to say what a satisfying solution would look like or what exactly are the problems and questions I would like to be addressed and answered. For the same reason I'm also not really able to evaluate your work. I wish it got more attention from people who are more well versed in it.
Reflective Reasoning is something Eliezer and others wrote a lot about. "Strage loop circularity" is my name for something Eliezer gestured at a few times, which he called "Strange loops through the meta level". In Where Recursive Justification Hits Bottom he justifies using Induction to justify induction and Occam's razor to justify Occam's razor, and says that it seems to him like it should be possible to formalize something that allows you to make valid "circular" reasoning like this, but still prevents invalid circular reasoning. I share his intuition, but don't have the capability to solve the problem. But if it is solved then it solves the Münchhausen trilemma, which is quite an annoying thorn.
In Where Recursive Justification Hits Bottom he justifies using Induction to justify induction and Occam's razor to justify Occam's razor, and says that it seems to him like it should be possible to formalize something that allows you to make valid "circular" reasoning like this
Oh, so it was what I was thinking. Yeah, I've just been explaining how it all makes sense to a person on Astral Codex. I think Eliezer mostly solved Münchhausen trilemma in the very same essay, or at least provided crucial insight for it. But an accurate and detailed explanation definetely wouldn't harm. As soon as I finished with anthropics, I'll try to provide it.
I think saying he "mostly solved" it goes too far, even he says so. But I definitely agree he provided crucial insight for it. I think I also added a bit in this comment.
As soon as I finished with anthropics, I'll try to provide it
Awesome. I hope people pay attention.
Btw here are the posts I can find where he talks about this:
And here he mentions it but doesn't talk primarily about it:
I'm really interested in a new Sequences. I don't think it would even be that hard to do, it's just not a thing that most rationalists find interesting in contrast to whatever else they're doing.
I think that the next level after Eliezer would be the additions added by Scott Alexander. His most well-known posts are pretty much cannon at this point.
This addresses (1) with the reviews of Seeing as a State and The Secret of Our Success.
Well, yes and no. The Secret of Our Success was indeed one of the things I thought about when I wrote that some of this has been addressed. But a handful of blog posts on this one problem don't constitute a new level (a paradigm, if you wish). Most of his other posts that became canon don't really go out of Eliezer's paradigm, they just expand it incredibly well.
We will know we've fully entered the new level/paradigm when we have a new Canon that answers all of these questions (and probably a few more) to some degree of completeness (having a canon also points to the need to have a certain level of consensus and common knowledge). The new level of rationality will be as distinct from Eliezer's level as Eliezer's level was distinct from the Feynman-Sagen level.
I think the informational value of tradition, and the progress-conservation tension, is indeed where we came farthest, and we mostly just need to collect everything that was written and distill it so it can become part of a future canon. After that, I think we came farthest on having an improved understanding of biases, but there's still some distance to go.
Other than that, I think we're quite far from a satisfying answer to the other problems, and so we're quite far from fully entering the next level.
What do you think of David Chapman's stuff? I'm thinking of his curriculum sketch in particular.
I don't think most rationalists were very excited by it though, e.g. Scott's brief look at it in 2013 (and David's response downthread) and an old comment thread I can no longer find between David and Kaj Sotala.
I don't plan to read David Chapman's writings. His website is titled "Meta-rationality". When I'm teaching rationality, one of the first things I have to do is tell students repeatedly is to stop being meta.
Empiricism is about reality. "Meta" is at least one step away from reality, and therefore at least one step farther from empiricism.
Telling people to stop being meta is very important, but I think you may be misunderstanding the way in which Chapman is using the term. AFAICT it's really more about being able to step back from your own viewpoint and assumptions and effectively apply a mental toolbox and different mental stances effectively to a problem that isn't trivial or already-solved. Personally I've found it has helped keep me from going too meta in a lot of cases, by re-orienting my thinking to what's needed.
Chapman's old work programming Pengi with Phil Agre at the MIT AI Lab seems to suggest otherwise, but I respect your decision to not read his writings, since they mirror mine after attempting to and failing to grok him.
This is part 1 of our dialogue series on the question "What is the next level of rationality?".
What Came Before Eliezer?
Tangent about Trolling as a core rationality skill
Back to "What's the next level of rationality?"