But you don’t need grades to separate yourself academically. You take harder classes to do that. And incentivizing GPA again will only punish people for taking actual classes instead of sticking to easier ones they can get an A in.
Concretely, everyone in my math department that was there to actually get an econ job took the basic undergrad sequences and everyone looking to actually do math started with the honors (“throw you in the deep end until you can actually write a proof”) course and rapidly started taking graduate-level courses. The difference on their transcript was obvious but not necessarily on their GPA.
What system would turn that into a highly legible number akin to GPA? I’m not sure, some sort of ELO system?
What’s totally crazy is doing the math on this.
- About 50% of college applications are from white students.
- White students report they lied 34% of the time.
- Of those students, 48% pretended to be Native American.
- That means that 5.8% of applications are falsely claiming to be Native American.
0.5 * 0.34 * 0.48 = .0816, not .058
It's unclear whether the 48% is 48% of all applicants or 48% of White liars. I'm still not sure where the 5.8% number came from.
Most students, 48 percent, claimed to be Native American on their application....
According to Intelligent.com Managing Editor Kristen Scatton, the prevalence of applicants who claim Native American ancestry is possibly due to the popular narrative that for many Americans, a small percentage of their DNA comes from a Native American tribe.
Maybe these students are purposely misinterpreting "Native American" to be someone who was born and raised in the United States, perhaps with ancestors born and raised in the US as well. This is actually the older sense of the term "Native American", found, for example, in the name of the Native American Party back in the mid-1800s.
I haven't been paying much attention to Harvard since graduation, but I was class of '09. On Math 55: very disappointed to hear this. AFAICT they still have 5 different intro math sequences (multivariable calculus + linear algebra; Math 1a and 1b are the equivalent of AP Calculus AB and BC and most skip them) with different levels of rigor, so I have to wonder what Math 19, 21, 23, and 25 are now like. I took 21 and wish I'd taken 23, because even in 2005 I underestimated how much watering down had already happened.
Phil Magness notes that students could instead start their majors. That implies that when you arrive on campus, you should know what major is right for you.
That sounds like the way we do it in the UK: there's no norm of "picking a major" during the course of your time at university - you apply to a specific course, and you study that from the start.
Probably why a standard Bachelor's degree is expected to be a 3 year course rather than 4.
The other was taught by a Harvard prof. He informed us TFs that an A is the default grade. A- would require justification.
Great post!
But can this be true? I don't care if it is fair or not to do so. I just wonder if Harvard would be so stupid to destroy their own brand, If people that are hiring Harvard students start to understand that the grades do no reflect the students knowledge in a subject even a little bit it can go south pretty fast.
Childhood roundup #5 excluded all developments around college. So this time around is all about issues related to college or graduate school, including admissions.
Tuition and Costs
What went wrong with federal student loans? Exactly what you would expect when you don’t check who is a good credit risk. From a performance perspective, the federal government offered loans to often-unqualified students to attend poor-performing, low-value institutions. Those students then did not earn much and were often unable to repay the loans. The students are victims here too, as we told them to do it.
Alas, none of the proposed student loan solutions involve fixing the underlying issue. If you said ‘we are sorry we pushed these loans on students and rewarded programs and institutions that do not deserve it, and we are going to stop giving loans for those programs and institutions and offer help to the suffering former students, ideally passing some of those costs on to the institutions’ then I would understand that. Instead, our programs are moving dollars mostly to relatively rich people who can afford to pay, and by offering forgiveness we are making the underlying problems far worse rather than better. Completely unacceptable even if it were constitutional.
Colorado governor Jared Polis, who really ought to know better, signs bipartisan bill to make first two years of college free for students whose family income is under $90k/year at in-state public schools. Technically this is 65 credits not counting AP/IB, concurrent enrollment, military credit or credit for prior learning, so there is even more incentive to get such credits.
The good news is they do have a full cliff, this falls off as you approach $90k, so they dodged the full version of quit-your-job insanity. The obvious bad news is that this is effectively one hell of a tax increase.
The less obvious bad news is this is setting up a huge disaster. Think about what the student who actually needs this help will do. They will go to a local college for two years for free. If they do well, they’ll get to 65 credits.
Then the state will say ‘oops, time to pay tuition.’ And what happens now? Quite a lot of them will choose to, or be forced to, leave college and get a job.
This is a disaster for everyone. The benefits of college mostly accrue to those who finish. At least roughly 25% of your wage premium is the pure Sheepskin Effect for getting your degree. If you aren’t going to finish and were a marginal student to begin with (hence the not finishing), you are better off not going, even for free.
I do not think we should be in the business of providing universal free college. There are real costs involved, including the negative externalities involved in accelerating credentialism. However, if we do want to make this offer to help people not drown, we need to at least not stop it halfway across the stream.
What Your Tuition Buys You
The real life version of the college where there degree students who pay for a degree but aren’t allowed to come to class versus the non-degree students who get no degree but are educated for free. To be clear, this is totally awesome.
Aside from being virtual, this product is vastly better than the normal one. You get to try out courses for $25 and bail if they are no good. If you struggle, or you get bad grades, you can start over again for another $25 or bail. You are never stuck with a bad grade. Then at the end, after you pay for the credits, it is still a deep discount, an entire degree for $16k.
Of course, this is Arizona State University, so the real product (by reputation) is neither education nor credential. Rather it is the cool parties. This program cannot help you with those. But if you are cool enough and show up, they are also close to free.
Decline of Academia
The big picture is that trust in academia, like many American institutions, is rapidly collapsing, among essentially all groups.
Here is one theory on (one aspect of) what happened.
I have not noticed rising whispers of the potential wisdom of hereditary aristocracy, indeed neoreaction seems to be fully dead. From where I sit, there is broad recognition that the universities and our other institutions have failed, without any particular suggestion about what plausible replacement would be superior beyond building private local alternatives. My expectations is that the replacement will emerge out of the transformations wrought by AI, whether or not it is an improvement.
Grading and Stress
Harvard students are highly stressed, despite having made it to Harvard, says Harvard Crimson. I would note that getting mental health counseling is often a function of how and when counseling is provided as much as it is about actual mental health – if we applied today’s standards to 2017 I bet the graph starts substantially higher.
Is this despite, or because, of the very high grades?
Article goes into the usual suspects, overscheduling, lack of social time, social media, hyper-competitiveness and perfectionism. Everyone running between ‘pre-professional’ activities trying to stand out. Harvard, the author says, is now a group of students obsessed with their relative status. Sounds like what would happen if you filter for exactly that type of young person, then put them all in the same place to compete, without the ability to differentiate themselves with grades because everyone who wants one has a 4.0.
Not that everyone in the Ivy league actually has a 4.0. Grade inflation is high, but these percentages of A grades from Yale are still a lot less than 100%, and inflation may have at least temporarily peaked:
The patterns here are clear, such that small surprises stand out and seem meaningful. Are we not appreciating what is happening in psychology? Their studies may not be replicating, but the grades are not either. You have to respect that. Whereas physics seems to have gone rather soft.
What does it say about the students who choose various majors and classes, given this wide distribution of grades? One could say that students going into education studies are smarter because they knew to secure better grades. Or one can say they went that way because they can’t hack it, or did not care to. Or one could say that your 4.0 in education studies means nothing (above getting into Yale in the first place) and everyone will know that.
Obviously we need a meaningful range of grades, otherwise students cannot differentiate themselves based on grades, so they both won’t care about doing well and learning, and they will become obsessed with other signals and status markers.
How bad is it? Oh my lord.
Matt Yglesias says students in college should study more, and we should hold them to actual standards.
Right now, they are doing remarkably little real work.
When you add in-class education, homework, other educational activities and outside work (which I would say largely counts as educational and is often necessary for support), we get 5.1 hours for ‘full time’ college students, or 35.7 hours a week.
I agree with Yglesias that to fix this we would need a dramatic reversal of grading practices. You need willingness to actually punish students who are not getting it done, with actual life consequences on more than the margin, or it won’t work.
It is indeed not what most parents and students want. Which means we know what product they are mostly buying, and the universities are mostly selling.
And like so many other things these days, there is remarkably little product differentiation. Almost no one is willing to say, this is something different, and we will get those who want that different product, and employers or prospective citizens or what not who want that product can reward that. It is odd to me that this is rare. If all the selective universities are rejecting most applications, so what if 90% of students and parents recoil in horror, so long as the other 10% are excited? Or 98% and 2%?
Lower Standards
The killing of Harvard’s Math 55. John Arnold contrasts an ‘06 Crimson article on how hard the course is, with a ‘23 Crimson article showing how it is no longer special. One can reasonably argue that if 70 start, 20 finish and only 10 understand, maybe that is bad actually, but I disagree. I think that math is a place for exactly that, because failure is an option. You want to provide the real thing, and it is fine if the majority can’t hack it and drop out. If we can’t fail here, where can we fail?
Claim that in the wake of their donors pulling out complaining about antisemitism, the price for Ivy league admission via donation has effectively been slashed on the order of 90%, from $20 million to $2 million. That seems clearly below the market clearing or profit maximizing price? The optics of doing large volume on this also seem pretty terrible. Kids whose parents can pay $20 million are someone you want as a peer so you can network, but at $2 million that advantage mostly fades. At some point the damage to the student body adds up. So I’m skeptical.
Degree Value
To what extent are we seeing a shift lowering the value of Ivy league degrees?
I would classify the selective privates at least half with the Ivies, not mostly with the public universities, if I was doing this style of recruitment.
Preston Cooper provides an entry in the genre where you measure the financial ROI of various college degrees given different universities and majors. 31% of degrees were negative ROI, once you factor in time costs and risk of not finishing.
Every time we run this test we get a graph of majors that looks like this:
That then interacts with different colleges, which differ in many ways including completion rates. And of course, if you switch programs based on this information, you do not suddenly get the completion rate (or net life impacts) of the degree you switch to, even if the original study was done fully correctly.
The return on master’s degrees was not so great.
It would be highly reasonable to tie government funding to program ROI, if we had a good measurement of that, but that is not how our government works.
Here is the data dashboard. In which I learned that my degree and major had negative ROI by this metric, whereas if I had switched majors from Mathematics to Economics like I considered, I would have had a vastly easier job all around and also picked up almost three million dollars (!) in expected value.
I don’t buy the full result there, but if this reflects reality even somewhat, letting me make this mistake and stick with Mathematics, without even a warning, was deeply, deeply irresponsible.
Shifting Consumer Preferences
Ideally we would get a more detailed breakdown, but yes.
Most students care primarily about things other than political activism. The problem for them is that college is a package deal. (Almost?) all the selective colleges have lots of political activism and force you to care deeply about things that are neither fun nor going to be useful to your future or part of getting a traditional education. And at least faking those things is deeply tied to your admission to those schools and to your social life and experience in class and administrative rules set once you arrive.
Standardized Tests in College Admissions
Colleges are reversing course, and admitting that yes standardized test scores are required for admissions.
It was completely insane to drop this requirement. Doing so only hurt the exact people they claimed to be trying to help. The good news is, while we have a long way to go, we seem to be past peak insanity in such matters.
Discrimination in College Admissions
A new way has been found to discriminate.
This likely effectively means that if you are not a first-generation college student (and an in-state student) then you will not be able to transfer to a selective major, no matter your other GPA. Those making these decisions have made their motivations and intentions clear, so go in with your eyes open, both reading the fine print and realizing that they could add more fine print later.
But also, it seems odd that students want to major in computer science, and we are saying no rather than expanding the program? Isn’t that exactly what we want?
Perhaps our children are learning after all. They can solve for the equilibrium.
That was back in 2021. Presumably this number has only gone up since then.
It is not clear this is helping the applicants much, whether or not they were caught. Liars got accepted at a 77% clip, but the typical acceptance rate overall is already about 65%, and it is not clear this is ‘accepted at any given college’ rather than at all, and there are various other factors in both directions.
What’s totally crazy is doing the math on this.
But the rate of real Native American applications is only about 1%. So that means, even if the other half of applications never lie: If you mark Native American, there is an 85% change you are lying. Meanwhile, several percent of those who lied checked the box for AAPI, which presumably only hurts your chances even if they believe you.
So yes, I doubt checking that box helps you much on its own.
Required Classes and Choosing Your Major
I had a highly extensive set of general required courses I had to take, something like 40 credits. You could make a reasonable case for the 16 that were reading the ‘Great Works’ of literature and philosophy. There wasn’t a problem with wokeness back then (the closest thing was when I sort of tried to cancel The Symposium for all the praising of child rape, and got told to STFU about it and come to class or else), but still the rest was pointless, a waste of time taking up almost a full year of coursework.
Phil Magness notes that students could instead start their majors. That implies that when you arrive on campus, you should know what major is right for you.
That is another issue with all the required classes. There is little room for exploration, most of those slots are already spoken for. If I had wanted to switch majors to something other than Mathematics, I had almost no opportunities to sample alternatives in time to do this. Realistically I could have probably made it to Physics or Economics, and that’s about it.
Which majors are most often regretted? Humanities.
I would have thought the physics majors were mostly not now doing physics? It still makes sense that regret rates are high. Math majors are mostly not doing math all day anymore, but they seem fine with it. As a math major myself, I am an exception, and I do regret it, although perhaps the signaling value made it worthwhile after all.
Here is a different survey that asks the same question. Will you regret that major? This time the answer is, probably.
Regret is an imprecise measure, but these are not small differences.
Everything I Need To Know That Waited Until Graduate School
Thread of what Basil Halperin learned in graduate school. Increasing returns to effort for specialization in terms of skills, whether that translates to world improvement or pay is another question. Nothing here made me think anyone should go to grad school.
Then again, do you go there for the learning?
Here is Bryan Caplan on when to get which Econ PhD. The algorithm is essentially:
It is no surprise given his other opinions that Bryan Caplan’s answer to that question is a very sharp no. In Caplan’s model the purpose of graduate school is to get a job that won’t hire you without one. That is it.
I think he’s right.
Nate Silver offers related Good Advice.
I do not believe you when you say you are going to be a Sleeper Agent. I expect you to either get worn down and be a normal academic, or to run away screaming in horror at some point, because man does that all sound miserable. It is a noble thing to do, of course, to be the change you want to see and fight for it, if you can.
It emphasizes that my basic advice here would be that going to graduate school is something you should only do with a very specific purpose, and generally only if you can attend an elite institution. Do not go because you have nothing better to do. Have a specific career path in mind, that either does not face or justifies the long odds usually against such paths. Know what you want to learn, and want to prove.
Or, ideally, if you possibly can, go do something else instead.
When You See Fraud Say Fraud
What is academia for, then? Presumably something else.
It is worse than that.
I get mocking someone for actually being confused here. One should not do even that. But yeah, if someone with experience straight up said ‘I am shocked, shocked to fund that things other than searching for truth are going on in here, how can that be, I am so confused’ then then mockers gonna mock.
This is not someone saying ‘I do not understand why someone is slurring their words in this cafe’ in a world where the cafes were called cafes but were actually bars. This is ‘it really is insane the amount of hard drinking going on in all the cafes, did you notice how rare it is for anyone to get a coffee anymore, they are actually bars’ and someone mocking you, saying ‘coffee is what an elementary schooler thinks people drink at cafes.’ And then everyone went back to pretending cafes only served coffee.
Free Speech
As Dilan Esper and Andrew Rettek note here, the right thing on free speech is to defend everyone’s right to speak. It is in the context of very much not doing this in other contexts, treating a wide variety of far less harmful speech as ‘violence,’ that this sudden claim of realizing of one’s principles in this one case rung hollow. No one is pretending this is a new set of general pro-speech principles to be universally applied.
As Jill Filipovic and Jonathan Haidt each note, it would be great if universities used the recent protest moment to realize they their systematic error, and broadly once again embrace free speech the way they used to do.
This is the letter the ACLU sent out in 1978 after they defended the right of actual Nazis to march in order to defend free speech for all of us.
You have to let them talk. This is America, man. Or at least, it used to be.
Alas, I am not holding my breath for such an outcome.
If it does happen, Charles Murray has kindly offered to allow the presidents to prove their devotion to free speech by letting him host a talk.
We are not letting them talk. FIRE found that 3% of current college students have been punished for speech, which translates to 5% over four years, which is enough for a hell of a chilling effect especially given how risk averse college students are now.
Jill Filipovic urges us all to rise to the standard of the old ACLU, no matter what others have done, and stand firm for free speech even asymmetrically. Do not call, she says, for more restrictions in the name of even-handedness. That is a tough sell. It is also not obvious which path leads to more free speech. Si vis pacem, para bellum?
Larry Summers points out that Harvard’s multiple Antisemitism Taskforces, which are accomplishing nothing, are the wrong approach, an alternative to both moral leadership and standing up strongly for free speech. Instead, Harvard continues to allow official support antisemitic positions without allowing the voicing of pro-Israel positions.
Paul Graham links to Richard Florida, a professor at the University of Toronto, who says people in academia now feel more space to speak their minds after recent events.
Here are some examples of other cases where free speech could have been stood up for, and universities chose a rather different path.
Harvard Goes Mission First
Harvard declares it is now mission first. It will no longer make ‘official statements about public matters that do not directly affect the university’s core function.’ I put up a prediction market on whether they stick to it. Good luck, Harvard!
What is Harvard’s mission? Harvard.
The Waterloo Model
Students from the University of Waterloo computer science programs have been enjoying oversized success, despite it being a relatively young university founded in 1957. Henry Dashwood looks at what makes Waterloo different. They have a five year program that does not break for the summer, the culture focuses on working on projects rather than partying or sports, they have a startup accelerator on campus, and despite having a lot of CS students they are very selective (claimed 4% acceptance rate).
So it is exactly the story one would expect based on what startup culture says. Focus on building things, cut out everything else.
I am curious if that model will long survive moves like this, although I appreciate that they have a distinct department for pure mathematics:
DEI
Joshua Rauh nots that his training on DEI included an example of where someone saying ‘DEI has gone too far’ is the first sign of prejudice and on the job discrimination.
Indiana signs a bill introducing ‘intellectual diversity’ as a standard for tenure decisions. Tyler Cowen suggests it will backfire, that observance will be addressed via technical box-checking, and that universities could retaliate by not hiring any actual conservatives (even more than they already do) at all for fear they would be forced to grant such people tenure later. It is extremely difficult to get a bunch of academics who want it to be one way, with only left-wing (or often only far-left-wing) viewpoints welcome in academia, to agree to have it be the other way via a law. Tyler does not lay out what he would do instead. I can think of ways to do it, but they involve big guns.
Wisconsin’s universities initially voted down a compromise to get rid of some DEI positions in exchange for funding for raises and new buildings, but they came around.
Washington Post Editorial Board comes out against DEI statements in hiring.
Here is what they are opposing.
Here is the full post from The Free Press.
To what extent does that mean an applicant’s DEI score impacts their chance of being hired? If you have a 12 versus an 8 versus a 0, what happens? One cannot be sure. It is compatible with ‘anyone under 11 need not apply’ and also with ‘no one actually cares.’
How easy is a high score? My guess is you can get to about a 7 (3/2/1/1) with a willingness to bullshit and use ChatGPT. Higher than that likely requires either lying or being willing to spend (and commit to spending) substantial amounts of time.
What about Columbia? How much do they care? What do they want?
You can feel the attitude coming off these rubrics.
This looks like a substantially tougher test to handle if you mainly care about your subject or are trying to muddle through without a huge time sink or ethical compromise. They mean business.
Given how numerical scores usually work, you do not have much margin for error. Getting a 15 here, if you are willing to do what it takes and spend the time, is easy, and probably so is getting a 9-10 in ‘service’ and that is probably highly linked. I doubt they have that high a bar to get to 8+ on teaching, and a 10 might be pretty easy there too. That does not leave much room to make up points, which has to be done with research. And a third of that is ‘curricular fit’ so those who are gaming the system are going to get full credit there too, while plans are pretty easy to fake.
Your entire actual ‘research track record’ is only worth five points. So yeah, if you are not heavy DEI for real, good luck. You’re not going to make it here.
Harvard’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences eliminated the requirement for DEI statements in hiring (source). Instead they are asked to submit a ‘service statement,’ which can include DEI if you want that. As an applicant, you now must ask: Do you think the requirement went away, or that they are testing you to see if you realize that it didn’t?
One must ask, what exactly did Sally Kornbluth believe before?
Was she unable to get rid of the statements until now?
Did she think they both worked and that they didn’t impinge on freedom of expression? I can see one thinking that perhaps they work. I can’t see how one can claim they don’t impinge on freedom of expression. You either care about that, or you don’t. So, revealed preferences on priorities, then?
In Other News
NYU opening a new campus in… Tulsa? Seems like an excellent source of diversity.