shokwave comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong

77 Post author: Yvain 01 November 2011 06:28PM

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Comment author: shokwave 01 November 2011 09:50:30AM 1 point [-]

If there's any status in comparing excessive underconfidence, I think I take the cake - one year off with 20% confidence in the interval. Good survey.

Comment author: thomblake 01 November 2011 03:01:15PM *  2 points [-]

That's not really underconfident if you're only right on about 20% of such estimates.

Comment author: ahartell 04 November 2011 06:20:10PM *  3 points [-]

That's not really underconfident if you're wrong on about 20% of such estimates.

Wait, wouldn't it be "if you were right on about 20% of such estimates"? To be calibrated correctly with 20% confidence you should be wrong about 80% of the time, right?

I'm not trying to be obnoxious about what might be a typo, it's just that you have 3 upvotes so I'm worried I'm missing something obvious.

Comment author: thomblake 04 November 2011 06:59:19PM 1 point [-]

Nope, you're right.

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