thomblake comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong

77 Post author: Yvain 01 November 2011 06:28PM

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Comment author: thomblake 01 November 2011 02:52:20PM 0 points [-]

I was 95% sure of the century, and was right about that much - but my 20% probability of +- 15 years didn't make any sense in hindsight, given the information that I had.

Embarrassing since lately I've been talking a lot about both probability and the history of philosophy after Newton.