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ahartell comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong
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Wait, wouldn't it be "if you were right on about 20% of such estimates"? To be calibrated correctly with 20% confidence you should be wrong about 80% of the time, right?
I'm not trying to be obnoxious about what might be a typo, it's just that you have 3 upvotes so I'm worried I'm missing something obvious.
Nope, you're right.