I enjoyed reading through people's views of the AGI Predictions. I know only a little about AI and a little bit more about SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), so I decided to make a similar poll.
The First Contact scenario with extraterrestrial intelligence shares certain similarities with the emergence of AGI. In the following, I ask similar questions to those in the AGI post. In addition, I add questions derived from the SETI literature. These are intended to reflect on AGI from a new perspective.
In SETI, it is debated that First Contact can cause great disturbance and change, positive and negative. After all, civilizations which are capable of contacting us across the oceans of time and space are expected to be much more advanced - just like AGI is expected to be "superior" (whatever that means) to baseline humans.
The form of First Contact
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Flavio B (2%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Tim Liptrot (90%),AnthonyC (90%),Emiya (90%),damiensnyder (93%),Razied (95%),Perhaps (98%),Pialgo (98%),CellBioGuy (99%)
1%
Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?
99%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
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40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Michael H (90%),Pialgo (90%),AnthonyC (90%),CellBioGuy (90%),damiensnyder (92%),Razied (95%),Charlie Steiner (95%),Perhaps (95%)
1%
If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?
99%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Flavio B (0.1%),Vermillion (1%),Michael H (1%),Charlie Steiner (1%),algon33 (3%),Pialgo (5%),AnthonyC (5%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?
99%
Its timeline
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Vermillion (1%),Owain_Evans (1%),TurnTrout (1%),Pialgo (1%),Daniel Kokotajlo (1%),Emiya (1%),Yousif (2%),damiensnyder (3%),algon33 (3%),AnthonyC (3%),Charlie Steiner (4%),Perhaps (5%),tenthkrige (7%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
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48%
49%
60%
61%
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64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
1%
There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Michael H (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.
99%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
1%
Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)
99%
Our response
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
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22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
1%
If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?
99%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
30%
31%
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33%
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35%
36%
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38%
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41%
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48%
49%
70%
71%
72%
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74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
CellBioGuy (95%)
1%
If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?
99%
The consequences
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
CellBioGuy (41%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?
99%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?
99%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
30%
31%
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74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
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40%
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48%
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60%
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66%
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69%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Vermillion (90%),lsusr (95%),Michael H (95%),TurnTrout (97%),Yousif (99%),Charlie Steiner (99%),Pialgo (99%),AnthonyC (99%)
1%
If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?
99%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
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23%
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40%
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86%
87%
88%
89%
1%
Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?
99%
20%
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26%
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28%
29%
40%
41%
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65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
1%
Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?
99%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Michael H (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)
99%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )
99%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards)
99%
Meta Questions
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
tenthkrige (1%),Vermillion (1%),Emiya (1%),Charlie Steiner (1%),TurnTrout (1%),Pialgo (1%),AnthonyC (1%),Daniel Kokotajlo (1%),algon33 (2%),lsusr (4%),Tim Liptrot (6%),CellBioGuy (6%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Michael H (10%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
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83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?
99%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
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66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Michael H (70%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
1%
Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?
99%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
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39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).
99%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Yousif (10%),adamShimi (10%),AnthonyC (10%),Michael H (10%),Emiya (10%),CellBioGuy (15%),Tim Liptrot (19%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
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86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".
99%
And finally, of course:
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
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46%
47%
48%
49%
CellBioGuy (41%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Yousif (90%),James_Miller (90%),AnthonyC (91%),algon33 (92%),tenthkrige (93%),TurnTrout (97%),Vermillion (99%),Pialgo (99%),Michael H (99%)
1%
ETI is AGI
99%
Why do people have such low credences for "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards)"? Most alien minds probably don't care about us? But perhaps caring about variety is evolutionarily convergent? If not, why wouldn't our "first contact" be extremely negative (given their tech advantage)?
My personal reasons:
- I assumed the question was about the first few decades after "first contact".
- A large chunk of my probability mass is on first contact being unintentional, and something neither side can do much about. Or perhaps one "side" is unaware of it. Like if we receive some message directed to no one in particular, or recording the remnants of some extreme cosmic event that seems mighty unatural.
- It feels like we're near certain to have created an AGI by then. I am unsure enough about the long term time scales of AGI improvement, and their l
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