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MugaSofer comments on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Less Wrong
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I suppose my problem is that we can't indicate our opinion on such beings, which, unlike the definition used, are not incoherent and indeed I suspect more people here would admit to some non-negligible probability of such beings than the "supernatural" ones described in the census.
It's not a huge problem, it just seems that the normal definition is more relevant than the one used.
So, you'd want to see a question like "Estimate the probability that there exist non-supernatural in-practice-unverifiable entities who are currently aware of and capable of influencing events on Earth."?
I agree with you that more people would estimate that higher than the probability of supernatural entites.
As for whether it's more relevant... hm. Relevant to what? That is, suppose that the mean reported probability were 10%. Or suppose it were 75%. Or .001%. What would you do with those answers?
Perhaps "informative" would be a better term.
I wouldn't restrict it to non-supernatural entities, because that might cause people to give their estimate that aliens have reached us, rather than considering, say, matrix lords or demons.
I think my question still applies. For example, consider two worlds in which that question were asked, one in which the mean reported probability were 10%, the other 75%. What information would you have about the difference between those two worlds, and why do you want that information?
Because if someone believes in ghosts, I could really care less if they believe they're irreducibly mental. I want to know what they'll do when their pipes start knocking more than their philosophical justification for this, although obviously both would be best.
(nods) Makes sense.